You saw it. I saw it. We all saw it. Scottie Barnes started leaning into the mid-range extremely hard; crafting the finesse aspect of his game, taking steps for the future, and when he hit a hot streak he got knighted with the most common comparison of our age: Kawhi Leonard.
In year 4 of Leonard’s career, the middy accounted for 52-percent of his shot attempts and this year they’ve accounted for 48-percent of Barnes’. There’s some overlap there for sure. However, when comparing them as young men, Leonard was roughly 7x more likely to unleash a pull up middy as a college player, and Leonard was a 96th percentile mid-range shooter by the end of his second season in the NBA. In fact, Leonard hasn’t registered a single full season below the 80th percentile in mid-range efficiency and he’s registered 6 seasons above the 90th. He also turned himself into an elite 3-point shooter very quickly. He’s a singular development story, a Finals MVP, yada yada.
All this to say, Barnes is starting behind the 8-ball if he’s trying to mimic the success of Leonard’s shooting profile. More than anything, it’s probably just the age old tale of: big wing shoots jumper = future Kawhi.
Now, not being Leonard isn’t a death sentence. Barnes seems quite singular to me and I think he’ll stiff arm inaccurate comparisons for all of his career. I still think he’s on All-NBA trajectory, and a lot of what is fueling the frustrations with his game are the clear attempts to incorporate things that aren’t a strong part of it on the offensive side of the floor. One of the biggest parts of Barnes’ game this year is that mid-range jumper, that post fade, that step back. I watched and tracked all of them to sort out just how good it’s been.
So, the simple stats are that Barnes is shooting 44-percent from the mid-range. His efficiency from there places him in the 65th-percentile among forwards, per cleaning the glass. He’s behind guys like Tobias Harris & DeAndre Hunter who both do a fair bit of their mid-range shooting off the bounce. He’s clearly not made the leap into elite, but he has definitely made the leap into a respectable mid-range shooter. However, there’s one style of shot that he loves more than anything in the middle of the floor: the fader, be it via the post fade or the step-back. On those, which account for 152/184 of his middy’s this season, he’s shooting 42.7-percent.
Why does Barnes shoot so many of these shots? Well, the answer is actually pretty easy and I’ll give it to you in 3 parts:
- Since Coach Darko arrived in Toronto, Barnes has been prioritized more in the pick n’ roll and he’s shown far more craft in creating looks than many expected, but the way to turn the water off is with a switch. It’s no surprise that of all the faders Barnes has taken this year, the most have come against big men.
- Barnes is a bully on the block, and spent some of his formative years playing next to Pascal Siakam, who the Raptors used as a cudgel to annihilate post mismatches and Barnes had the size, will, and environment to organically develop that part of his game alongside him. The Raptors look to toss him the ball on the block.
- Similar to the mismatch reason, Barnes started getting reps very early as a bully-drive isolation option in the Nick Nurse offense, and those possessions are going to point you toward these types of shots.
Faders/step backs: 23/56 (41%) on wings / 13/30 (43%) on guards / 29/66 (44%) on bigs.
So, Barnes was pointed toward these skills, embraced them, and is trying them out a lot in a tank year. He also seems to enjoy operating this way. It’s just a very difficult way to succeed and the level of shot making you need to truly excel this way is very high. This change in shot diet is why Barnes’ efficiency has slipped basically everywhere.
There are 112 players who have used at least 100 isolations this season, and Barnes’ points per chance ranks 98th of that group. If you’re wondering, yes, he’s seeing an extra body quite a lot as he’s the 16th most doubled player of the 112. New teammate Brandon Ingram is the 2nd most doubled of the 112, and former teammate Pascal Siakam is 3rd. The injured roster this season, and the fact that there’s just less talent compared to last year means Barnes is operating with far less room than he’s accustomed to. Even if it’s not an outright double, the gaps get pretty skinny in 1 on 1 coverage, and the Raptors are a bottom 6 team in the NBA when it comes to converting C&S looks.
Even if you go to the post, where Barnes’ efficiency has slipped a lot from last year to this year (1.174ppc vs. .982), he’s ranked 31st in efficiency among the 50 high volume post up players this season and gets doubled the 28th most often.
You can, of course, quibble about the chicken or the egg of it all right here, because middy fadeaways are actually a pretty terrible way to create looks for your teammates. The defense mostly gets to stand still and assess slow back downs and watch 1 on 1 play. The numbers are the numbers, but you can argue back and forth whether Barnes is seeing too much attention and his teammates aren’t paying it off, or that he’s settling and failing to collapse the defense often enough to be a true lead creator. I suspect this argument will rage on this summer.
It’s also true that we see talented creators all across the NBA create looks for a wide array of teammates, good, elite, and mediocre. Hell, Raptors fans watched Kyle Lowry for years. We also saw Coach Darko call Barnes the future face of the league, and we saw the Raptors quickly cobble together a completely different team that is set to prioritize Barnes’ prime. Expectations are obviously going to be there, and it can be a thin line between contextualizing something and excusing it away.
So, the mid-range jumper: I think that shot is going to be a strong part of Barnes’ game for the bulk of his career. Honestly, we’ve even seen him leverage the threat of it to get the free throw line more often lately because he’s been slumping in that area – 35% on faders since Jan. 10th. Barnes does a good job of getting to the short middy, which keeps him close to a dangerous area of the floor. The question will be just how good the jumper becomes (I’d be surprised if he’s truly, truly elite at it, but hope I’m wrong), and how he’s able to use it to control the middle of the floor and wield it as a playmaking avenue. We haven’t seen nearly enough of the latter, despite knowing full well how talented a passer Barnes is. Maybe next season is where we see that aspect really grow, there’s certainly a lot of potential for it.
So, while he’s not tracking the same way Leonard was early on, Barnes’ development — even though he’s not elite — of this part of his game is a testament to his touch and his work ethic. Excited to see where this ends up.
Have a blessed day.
