In recent years, due to the evolution of the 24-hour NBA news cycle, the draft has become one of the largest exercises of groupthink in existence. Every year teams let rotation-quality players slip through their grasp due to preconceived notions about the flaws that were present in their expanded college roles, and due to the recency bias that comes from seeing “higher upside” prospects cross-up pylons and dunk on five-foot-ten trainers.
With that said, although the Raptors currently do not have a pick, it is more than plausible to see them buy into the second round to find a potentially slept-on prospect much like the Cavaliers (Kay Felder) and Warriors (Jordan Bell and Pat McCaw) have tried in recent years. Despite the Raptors already having a plethora of promising young talent, buying into the draft is an easy way to round out their rotation with low salary deals while also possibly finding a diamond-in-the-rough future All-Star. As Zach Lowe wrote in a recent column, if you are a team with championship aspirations, “you hunt upgrades even on the margins.”
The Modern Big Men That Will Fall Due to a Lack of Outdated Skills
Mitchell Robinson- Projected Range: 20-35. College: Western Kentucky… Kinda
At 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and nimble feet, Robinson is the third best big man prospect in the draft (behind Deandre Ayton and Mo Bamba) in terms of physical tools. Defensively, he is a menace. He has the potential to swallow up guards on switches with his mobility and be a flyswatter at the rim due to his wiry arms and pogo-stick vertical. Offensively, he is extremely raw and lacks virtually any post moves, but provides a ton of pressure on the rim as a lob threat – à la Willie Cauley-Stein or a poor man’s Clint Capela – which is something the Raptors have seriously lacked in recent years.
A former 5-star recruit, this time last year Robinson was projected as a consensus top-10 pick, but after leaving Western Kentucky early in the season under conspicuous circumstances, the questions surrounding his maturity have become all the more relevant. The main thing for him would be to come into a winning culture where he is held accountable and has veterans to learn from, both of which the Raptors can provide. If he is on the board after pick 30, don’t be surprised if the Raptors manufacture a means to acquire him.
Raymond Spalding- Projected Range: 45-Undrafted. College: Louisville
At 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan but mediocre foot speed, Spalding is similar to Robinson but with less upside. He will likely fall to the late second round due to a lack of offensive polish, small-ish hands, and his age (21). Fortunately, he provides a lot of the same defensive impact and pressure as a lob threat (albeit, to a lesser extent) while having almost none of the maturity issues surrounding Robinson as he, Spalding, was a three-time All-ACC Academic choice. If he is on the board in the 50s, he is definitely worth a flier.
Shooters for Nurse
Kevin Huerter- Projected Range: 20-35. College: Maryland
Originally projected in the mid-teens, Huerter has seen his draft stock fall in recent weeks due to a chronic injury in his shooting hand that required surgery and reports suggesting that he wasn’t extremely well-liked by his teammates at Maryland. There have been whispers about him possibly being promised by a team in the 20s, but those are usually just speculation so it’s in play that he slips into the 30s.
Nonetheless, at 6-foot-7 and 42% from three – on high volume and difficult shot selection – Huerter might be the best off-ball shooter in the draft. At Maryland, he was excellent at shooting off of pin downs and staggers, both of which are staples of a Nick Nurse offense. Additionally, he is a more than capable playmaker who makes great reads when he comes off of screens. With the Raptors likely leaning more into “pace and space” under the newly promoted Nurse, and no one under contract outside of Kyle Lowry and CJ Miles commanding any real gravity as a shooter, he could be a perfect fit.
Grayson Allen- Projected Range: 25-40. College: Duke
Everyone thinks they know exactly who Grayson Allen is due to a few clips they have seen over the last three years. In reality, he projects as a pretty safe pick in terms of a 3-and-D contributor at the next level. Initially a fringe second rounder, Allen’s stock has risen as much as any prospect throughout the pre-draft process as interviews have possibly allowed executives to see that he has matured past his previous antics and has learned to channel his competitiveness in a positive way. Additionally, he was one of the most impressive athletes at the combine, and scouts have finally begun to recognize him for the criminally underrated shooter he is. Allen has supposedly become this year’s “workout warrior,” as reports have come out about him only missing single-digit shots during hour-long shooting workouts where he is flying off of screens and showcasing his lightning-quick release from deep.
There is talk of teams in the 20s getting the hots for him, but the questions surrounding his defense will likely cause him to fall to the second round. Despite owning lakeshore property on Grayson Allen Island since 2015 (it’s been an up and down investment, to say the least), even I can see that he lacks a lot of polish on the defensive end. However, possessing all the tools of a plus defender, it is reasonable to expect him to find a way to channel it once he is forced to earn his minutes on that side of the ball. Best case scenario, he turns into a Courtney Lee or Eric Gordon-type shooter and secondary playmaker. That’s worth a look in the 30s.
Josh Okogie- Projected Range: 30-40. College: Georgia Tech
While not near the level of shooter as the two previous names in this section, Okogie provides far more from a defensive standpoint which makes him an intriguing 3-and-D prospect. In addition to his 38% from three this past year, Okogie is 6-foot-5 with a 7-foot (!!) wingspan and can confidently guard one through four in switchable lineups. This combination of length and shooting has scouts seeing him as a shorter Robert Covington, which has caused him to shoot up draft boards this past year.
While questions about his ability to translate virtually all of his other offensive skills (handle, finishing, passing etc.) to the next level still only have him in the second round, that shouldn’t be too much of a worry for a team like the Raptors, as his role would likely only be to catch and shoot. Moreover, he is a great cutter, making him an even better fit as the fifth offensive option when he’s on the floor. Okogie theoretically could fill the role of Norman Powell defensively (and probably better offensively) if the Raptors find a way to offload his contract this summer.
Jalen Brunson: He gets his own section
Jalen Brunson- Projected Range: 30-40. College: Villanova
Two years ago, Fred VanVleet went undrafted due to questions surrounding his age, quickness, and size. It took about a year but eventually the league realized that those issues weren’t nearly as detrimental as they once thought, as he had arguably the highest basketball IQ in the draft. It appears as though that same miscalculation is taking place this year with Brunson, as he is projected in the second round despite being the most accomplished player in the draft outside of Luka Doncic. It’s maddening. I mean, he does it all.
Brunson has the steadiest hand in the draft, he takes charges, he shoots 41% from three, he’s in the 98th percentile offensively (per Synergy Sports), he hits shooters right in the pocket, he leads, he plays within himself, he makes up for his limitations defensively by outworking everyone, he… you get the point. Additionally, he has spent the last three seasons quarterbacking a Villanova team that, in addition to being arguably the best team in the country, runs a pace and space offensive style that is more akin to the NBA than the Big East.
There’s no question he is ready for the next level, but he will fall regardless. Best case scenario he is the next Derek Fisher, worst case he is Shabazz Napier, who has become a solid backup in his own right. Either way, if he is still on the board in the 30s, he would be a more-than-sound VanVleet insurance policy for the Raptors to invest in.
Honorable Mention Long-Term Prospects:
Both Hamidou Diallo and Trevon Duval are a year removed from being projected top 10-picks due to their tantalizing physical tools but have fallen to the mid-to-late second-round because of their broken jumpshots (Duval’s is eerily similar to Dwight Howard’s) and high turnover play, among many other things. Both are still a long way from being ready to contribute, but considering they are still teenagers, either one may be worth a long-term investment if they are still on the board past pick 45.
