Happy Holidays! All I wanted for Christmas was more playing time for Julian Wright. I received it, but unfortunately it was due to injuries and a bone head ejection.

The end of the calendar year, is a pretty useless milestone for the NBA season (after 41 games, or during all-star break is certainly more natural), but nevertheless is an excuse for us to look at the team as a whole.

Let’s first look the “Four Factors“, which was coined by one of the “Deans” of advanced basketball statistics, Dean Oliver.

Oliver argued wins and losses can largely be attributed to four factors (with the following weights):

  1. Shooting (40%)
  2. Turnovers (25%)
  3. Rebounding (20%)
  4. Free Throws (15%)

Others have demonstrated more robust weights, but the concept is still sound.

Thankfully our friends at Hoopdata.com continually monitor this. They measure these factors as Oliver suggested here (see “Measuring the Four Factors” box)

Effective Field Goal Percentage

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The chart is in order of effective field goal differential (start with “12 o’clock”, Boston in this case, and continue clockwise). The black data points and line are each team’s eFG while the red is what they give up to opponents. Thus the “gap” is the differential, which the second chart shows more clearly.

Toronto’s eFG is fine – we are ranked 15th at 49.8%. It’s our defense, where we are giving up 52.8%, that normally kills us. We are second worst in the league behind Phoenix.

But where are we weak? It’s quite clear:

Sixty-two percent (!!) of our opponents made shots are within 10 feet of the basket. Another 16% are from beyond the arc, another efficient area. Twenty-three percent of their made shots from mid or long 2s.

By contrast, we take 36% of our shots from mid to long 2s which represent 31% of made shots. Of course, this isn’t always by choice. Smart defensive schemes try to force mid range jumpers while taking away both the inside and close out quickly on threes.


(Click image for larger version)

I thought turnovers were likely a larger problem as we are 3-10 in games where we turn the ball over more than 15 times. However, the Raptors are 12th at forcing turnovers. Thus, as always, the differential is the key and the Raptors rank 11th.


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No surprise here. The one area (especially with Evans) the Raptors are efficient at is rebounding. We are sixth in offensive rebounding rate differential.

Free Throws
Oliver measures this two ways: 1) both free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted and 2) Free throw percentage (getting to the line is key, but also making them).

We are ranked 14th in getting to the line and have the 12th highest fouling rate. Our differential is 18th best.

Our free throw percentage of 75.4% is just below the league average of 76.0%. Thus, our free throw factor is in the middle of the pack.

It’s not all about points per game by individuals
Our timing is good with respect to commenting on team play. Most fans agree the recent Dallas game was one of the gutsier efforts the Raptors have put out in years.

I hope it also give some support for our quest to look at advanced metrics to help explain who contributes the most to wins. One illustration: Julian Wright has played over 21 minutes only twice this season: a win on the road against the Orlando Magic and a win on the road against the Dallas Mavericks – two tough opponents, especially on their home floor.

Yet Julian Wright averaged only 3.5 points in those games. This stresses the importance of measuring one’s play at both ends of the floor. A-Dub had this to say regarding the Dallas game “(Julian Wright) who is quickly winning some Raptor hearts over with his fine defensive play and surprisingly good court vision. The team just plays better with him on the floor.” Altraps, in Roll Call, noted: “…once again I have to say, (Wright) is almost demanding more time from Jay.”

Wright passed the ball often (many times the “second”, or “third” assist), took charges, forced their wings to shoot difficult shots, helped on D, etc. The same goes for Amir Johnson, who only scored 12 points, but also made a difference. Altraps said: “You simply couldn’t have asked for a better game from a wounded soldier.”

No doubt both of these players have poor games as well. But their intangibles and TEAM play inspire those around them. It’s infectious this team concept. It’s also, perhaps… , no wonder why they are first and second in two year adjusted +/-.

Maybe there’s something to this…

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  • Nilanka15

    Nice work Tom. But if you keep up these Statophile columns, the Bargnani fanboys will soon put a bounty on your head.

    “Sixty-two percent (!!) of the opponents made shots are within 10 feet of the basket.” I knew our interior defense was bad, but this puts things in an entirely different realm of futility.

    • RapthoseLeafs

      [” … the Bargnani fanboys will soon put a bounty on your head. “]

      How’s that? You have to get through the exterior, in order to get to the interior.

      In other words, Opponents have to get into the Paint to score. Andrea certainly has his issues in stopping them from scoring, but why is it that we don’t ask ourselves why they keep getting there. Where’s the resistance, or more appropriately, who’s resisting. Defense is a team responsibility, and our Wings/Guards offer very few roadblocks.

      • Nilanka15

        Although I implied, Bargnani is 100% to blame, I know it’s not true. We’re a poor defensive team from top to bottom.

        However, is it common knowledge that we can’t expect our wings to be able to guard other wings one-on-one with any consistency. Players are just too good, hence the need for double teams, traps, zones, and help defense in the middle.

      • smushmush

        If the exterior is even bad, the interior should not be. Look at Orlando, they have always had a collection of bad perimeter defenders but the inside presence of Dwight Howard makes penetrating guards think twice of shooting the ball in the paint, they rather penetrate and kick it out for a 3 which is a lower percentage shot. Until Bargnani has average help defense, the paint stats would continue to have ungodly numbers.

        Case in point – the Dallas game, the intimidation factor of Ed Davis and Amir Johnson at blocking and altering shots gave guards like Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, Caron Butler and JJ Barea cause to think when flipping up shots in the paint and as a result, they started resorting to jumpshots and even 3s.

        Basketball is not hard to learn. Your exterior or perimeter defense could suck, but a no-no is having no interior presence(which is why the Lakers were on a recent 3 game losing streak because Pau Gasol has lost a step this year as an interior presence even if the blocks per game stats say otherwise).

        ‘Nuff said.

        • “Case in point – the Dallas game, …”

          Excellent point. Points in the paint (not quite our <10 ft metric, but close enough) allowed was only 24. (We scored 48 points)

          Also see: http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=301228006

          Solid interior defenders and help D does wondrous things.

        • RapthoseLeafs

          Hard to compare anyone to Dwight – Defensive player of the year. Magic can get away with poorer perimeter defending (and allow a greater concentration on Offensive abilities – with these players). With the recent trade, Orlando boosted their 3 pt shooting & FG% from what it was. Their Achilles heel, as Toronto demonstrated in a close game, is to foul Howard (.563 FT%) in the last couple of minutes.
          While I agree Bargs is lacking in help-defense, our Wings have brought neither defense nor offense on a consistent basis. Andrea may be one-dimensional (at this point), but our Wings are not even that (although Demar is showing signs of having a game). I don’t include Wright, simply because he hardly plays.
          As for the Dallas game, our Bigs did not face serious competition (with Dirk out). That allowed Raps to double team Terry (#2 scorer) in the 4th. As well, Mavericks shot .227 from the perimeter (mostly uncontested) – a drop from their .359 season average.

          That being said, Toronto played a helluva game, simply because they ALL gave an effort on Defense – it helped that Wright played extensive minutes. Some people like to infer that Bargnani’s lack of help-Defense is the sole cause of our defensive woes, when in fact it has been a complete team lack-of-effort (on many occasions).
          In essence, the stars lined up for that Dallas game, and Raps took advantage. It also helped that Davis had a “break-out” game. To me, the latter is what I gained most from that game, besides the pleasure of the win itself.

        • John_P

          Ok look at the Dallas game, a team with no interior scorers since Dirk was out of the lineup. Do you honestly beleive that would have been the case if he was playing?

          • Yes. Dirk takes 82% of his shot beyond 10 feet.

            He is NOT an interior scorer.

            • John_P

              Does he not open up the lane for other by spreading the floor? Answer: YES

              • Sgt_themilkman

                The question was Dirks being an interior scorer. Not his spreading the floor. When proven wrong change the question? Answer: YES

                • John_P

                  The point is that without Dirk, they have no one spreading the floor, which opens lanes and creates opportunities to score in the interior. Also he does score in the paint as well, despite what some on here would have you beleive.

              • Absolutely agree with that. But he’s not an interior scorer himself. Sorry for misunderstanding your original statement.

            • Giolondon999

              Why you don’t just shut it! with Dirk or a different shooting night from Dallas you can kiss good night your stats and the win in Dallas !

              • I didn’t say that. Only replied that Dirk was not an interior scorer.
                Yes, DAL would have most likely won with Dirk in the lineup. Lots of ifs and buts, we were missing key personnel as well.

            • Brain Colangelo

              Agree but he would have drawn our bigs out of the paint because he’s a threat to score (efficiently) from anywhere. Dallas’s offence doesn’t have the same spacing without him. Against San Antonio last night Dallas ran its offence through Caron Butler and only faltered when Jason Terry was asked to do too much (b/c the floor wasn’t spread enough for him).

      • Boomer

        The whole complaint about Bargs has been his help defense.. which implies that the other guys are getting beat and he’s not rotating or whatever. The shots at the rim stat doesnt indicate WHO is taking the shots. Bargs is a capable man defender. The help is where he obviously struggles and that is a larger factor in that stat than his man-D is.

  • voy

    Seriously, Nilanka. Is it possible for you to post anything without trying to incite braindead convesations?

    • KJ-B

      If you remember, he’s the CEO/President of the “Trade Bargnani” Campaign… {I actually typed #7’s name, it was for syntax purposes–D’ohhh!!!}

    • Nilanka15

      First, can’t we all just get along? Maybe hold hands and sing Kumbaya like voy would like?

      Second, isn’t what I said true? Every Statophile column has highlighted the poor defensive players on this team. Yet the fanboys get more defensive/defiant with every passing day.

      Third, if you consider my comment braindead conversation-inducing, wouldn’t responding to the comment (like you did) simply perpetuate what you consider to be a braindead conversation, thereby accomplishing nothing?

      • John_P

        Yeah like the same defence you put up regarding the “young ones”. As was mentioned in an earlier post, Bargs may be “one dimensional” but our wings aren’t even that. His help defence wouldnt be such an issue if they didnt consistently need help to cover for their errors.

  • voy

    anyone watching the Raps play knows (how could you not) that we give up an embarrassingly amount of layups and dunks. I mean, there have been games where teams have reeled off 6-12 points in a row off us just in uncontested layups. The first Raptor to lay a guy out going for a layup will become my personal hero.

    The question is how do you lower this percentage? I have a few suggestions.

    (1) I’d like to see Jose not pick up his man 30ft away from our basket. I love Jose but on defense the guy is playing in cement shoes. By the time the opposition pg gets to the 3 pt line jose is already 3 ft behind him. I wouldn’t mind if jose sagged on d and basically give up the deep 2 or 3. I think this is infinately better than forcing our interior defenders to play 2 on 1.

    (2) I’d love to see Triano get creative with his defensive matchups. Why not slap Wright on the other team’s best perimeter player? Regardless if its a 1 2 or 3, I would give wright a shot at being our shutdown defender. I think this would also hide some of Jose’s weakness on the perimeter.

    (3) No more automatic 2ble teams on the perimeter. Please. I’m tired of seeing guys go off on us because they are left wide open with uncontested shots.

    (4) I’d love to see more consistent playing time for ED. I’m loving what he’s bringing so far. My only concern is his durability. Give him more consistent minutes and lets see if he can handle the grind. Get him out there and let him get as much experience as possible and make as many mistakes as he needs in a nothing year for the team. I dont even care about ED’s offense. Just bring the capability of hitting layups, and rebound and defend like an animal and you are good.

    If ED continues to significantly improve this year it brings up the interesting question “do we need both AJ and ED on the same team if they can both become frontline players?”.

    I know alot of the one-trick ponies here are soley going to blame Andrea for the 62% within 10 ft stat. But really, anyone who cares to be objective knows there are more factors at play here than just our centres inability to guard his own man and at the same time guard the driving perimeter player who has had the red carpet laid out for him.

    • mountio

      Wow! Something insightful and actually helpful to address our defensive woes (as opposed to the typical “AB sucks”.
      I like your suggestions, especially 1 and 2.
      As for 1, its not only a large part of the reason why guys get to the rim, but its a large part of the reason why we give up so many wide open 3s. You cant blame the interior D for that. Yes, the wings need to take some blame for inability to close out on shooters, but it all starts with the PG getting beat off the dribble.
      As for 2) the obvious issue is guys might starting posting up our PGs with if they gaurd the 2 man, but I agree, why not give it a try? Even though SGs have a height advantage, most arent comfortable in the post and it puts teams out of their rythmn.
      I also like the concept of switching up the lineups in general from time to time. Why not go big with AB, ED, AJ every once in a while? Not sure who guards the 3, but maybe ED could handle some 3 men? Amir had trouble against the Knicks and others, so maybe hes not best. Or go small with JW at the 4 and try to outrun/outquick teams? Not saying all the time, but over the last 5 years we have got so stuck in our positions (ie these guys are 2/3s, these guys are 4/5s, these guysa are 1/2s) and rarely gone big or small. The best teams know how to do this and create mismatches both on offense and defense .. I think we could do the same.

    • Daniel

      voy, the opposing wings are killing us and not the PG’s. Strangely enough we keep piling on Jose who has a better defensive rating than DeRozan, Weems and Kleiza. No PG in the League is a shutdown defender: the hand check rules killed any chance at it. That’s why mobile bigs are at a premium defensively: they can show, hedge and recover in order to slow down the opposing PG’s. Jose’s defensive efficiency has a direct corelation with our PnR defense from our bigs. Rondo is considered a good defender however he has Garnett to cover his back so Rondo can play the passing lanes and cheat on the play. PG’s can afford to be aggresive only when the bigs are aggresive. UNfortunately, Bayless and Barbosa seem to be worse defensively than Jose from what I’ve seen so far. Again though, our main defensive problems come from our wings, especially DeRozan’s shocking lack of defensive awareness.

      • yertu damkule

        you make some good points, though i’d argue that there are ‘no’ PGs in the L are shutdown…it’s very difficult to assess in isolation, because as you point out, how good a defender a player is more often than not is determined (or at least impacted) by how effective one’s teammates are at defending not only their own checks, but in offering help. your example with rondo is solid, though i give him more credit for being an exceptional on-ball defender than you do (i.e. he’d be an excellent defender regardless of who’s playing behind him). your suggestion that he ‘cheats’ & plays passing lanes because he has solid defenders behind him isn’t entirely inaccurate, but doing so paints him as iverson-esque, when i see him as more of a gary payton-type defender (physically strong, very quick laterally, excellent recovery skills, and rondo’s got ridiculous hands/wingspan).

        there are other good defending PGs – paul, westbrook & Dwill to name a few, and rose could get there (he’s got the physical skill, just not sure he know’s how to use it yet), but it’s true, there are few ‘shutdown’ defenders…not just at the PG spot, but at any. i guess what’s more important than having shutdown defenders is NOT having poor defenders. i’ll take a lineup of 5 average (or slightly above-average) defenders over a lineup that features one shutdown defender (at any position) and 4 below-average defenders any day.

    • raptorsss

      Ed Davis has done it on at least two occasions. Going for the block and ends up preventing an easy lay-up. Until Bargnani can do the same, this team will go nowhere with him.

    • Nilanka15

      I think the idea behind Calderon picking up his check early is an “attempt” to take more time off the shotclock so the offense feels a little more pressure to get a good shot off. I can’t say this strategy has worked well though.

      Speaking of which, remember all the preseason talk about us having a very athletic roster, and thus, wanting to trap and press more? We saw some full court presses in preseason, but haven’t seen a damn thing since. 2 months into the season, has Triano already forgot what his team worked on during training camp?

    • Bo4

      No! Amir & Ed up front are 2/3 of our future! Andrea is the one to be replaced by a proper C someday!!

      If anything, I’d agree that Sonny can go, if Jay can play Julian more!!! DeMar is getting better, slowly. He just needs a stud swing beside him, to show him how to do it better at both ends.

      And Jerryd needs a stud PG to do the same for him, even if it’s a younger one.

      • Nilanka15

        If we had a stud swing, and a stud PG, the development of DeRozan and Bayless wouldn’t be an immediate concern, and we’d probably be talking about a Raptors team playing .500 ball 😉

        • Boomer

          I’d think two thirds of the league are saying “If we had a stud ___, AND a stud ____” things would be okay.
          It’s not that easy. Which is why people can’t live and die with each game. I’m getting rather tired of the “ED IS THE FUTURE” followed up by “WE HAVE TO TRADE ED DAVIS NOW”. It’s been like… 15 or so games of this guys career. We need to relax.

          By the way, the second paragraph is a general statement, not directed at yourself.

      • voy

        i’ve been a little disappointed Sonny hasn’t been more consistent but i’d be hesitant about trading a guy who can average 2ble digits points, has his athleticism and makes less than a mill. Who knows though?

        Worse case scenario, in my view: Sonny sits on the bench, potential untapped for peanuts.

        I know its super premature but if Amir and ED come close to reaching their potential is there enough time in a game to play both? I’m not sure you want either of those guys logging in too many minutes at anything other than a 4.

        • Bo4

          voy, in the next 3 to 4 years, Amir &/or Ed will put on some muscle, in all likelihood. Before then, if Andrea doesn’t become a more complete basketball player, he’s the one I’d upgrade! If they’re in a rotation of 3, Ed’s & Amir’s minutes will suffice.

          Jay has consistently talked D, but played O more. That may be BC’s preference, as well. It may be a turning point for us if we traded Sonny (he’s a free agent this summer) and started Julian, making a statement about the increased importance of D to this team.

          • John_P

            They can put on all the muscle they want, if Amir can’t stay on the court he will be the one nailed to the bench.

            • Amir has the lowest fouls per 36 min in his career this season. Takes him almost 40 min to reach six, and he’ll never likely play 40 anyway.

              He does sometimes get 2 early, which continues to be a problem. There is improvement this year.

              (Note he’s also drawing plenty of fouls, third best on team and shooting 2nd best FT% behind Calderon)

              • John_is

                Yes we all noticed his improved jumper, but look at Amir’s numbers when Bargnani opens the floor for him. Pretty impressive. When Bargs is missing and teams can play him straight up they numbers drop drastically.

    • sangaman

      Your right about layups and dunks except when Reggie was playing. Most people on this blog undervalue the kind of physical play that reggie provides..it doesnt show up in stats. If he hadnt been injured i think the raps would be near 500.

  • The turnovers haven’t been a problem up until the last 6 games or so. I don’t expect any stat to point to them as being the reason for our bad record. One thing I have noticed is that we tend to shoot a pretty good FG% even when we’re turning the ball over. It’s like the aggressive style of play leads to better shots for us, we just waste a lot of possessions by coughing it up.

    • I looked at the data quickly and it looks similar for big turnover games vs few.

      We are 3-10 with more than 15 turnovers and shoot 46.5%. In two of those 3 wins, we had a turnover differential of zero.
      We are 8-10 when 15 or less turnovers and shoot 46.9%

      The challenge is turnovers often lead to easy transition buckets. Opponents shoot 50.0% when we have over 15 TOs and 47.8% for 15 and under.

      I thought perhaps we’d get to the line more, but its an avg of 24 (high TOs) vs 26 (low)…

  • Bo4

    I got dizzy looking at those spiral graphs! Here’s another take on the team stats:
    Blocks Differential 29th
    Rebounds Differential 9th (ONLY YEA!!)
    Points Differential 21st
    Assists Differential 19th
    Steals Differential 24th
    There’s lots of room for improvement on this team …

  • mountio


    Interesting stuff. Realize the sample size is small, but can anything be gleaned from the Raps eFG% and eFG% differential with and without AB in the lineup?
    I would think he should help the eFG% for us, but also help the opposing team. Wondering if there is a meaningful way to measure which delta is more impactful?

    • Statement

      Just curious,

      have you heard of 82games.com? (No sarcasm intended).

      • mountio

        Heard of it, yes. Used it much, no. If everyone reading these posts spent their time running scenarios on 82games.com and knew the advanced stats inside out, not sure there would be much point in Tom writing these posts. But, in the real world, that doesnt happen, so I asked the question.
        Just to humour you, I just went to 82games.com and it wasnt obvious how to get what I was asking for. ie what is our eFG% differential in the games AB plays vs the games he doesnt. If its painstakingly obvious and Im just illeterate on 82games.com – please let me know how to do it, happy to run it myself.

        • Tons of data there, not always easy to find. The answer I gave you below came from:

          From the main page, hit “Toronto Raptors” then click on the player and you have to scroll all the way to the bottom.

          • mountio

            Thanks. I was thinking more of the games that AB doesnt play at all vs the games that he does (vs when hes on or off the court). This would somewhat normalize for the fact that, as a starter that plays heavy minutes, AB’s floor time is typically against the opponents’ best players.
            The question being, without him, is our team’s inability to get good shots outweighed by our increased defensive efficiency?

    • It’s 1.8% (the delta opponent’s eFG% improves) – eFG with Bargnani on is 53.3% while off is 51.5%.

      Our eFG% goes up 0.6% with him on the floor. Rebounding goes up 1.8% with Bargnani off the floor.

      One caveat: this could entirely be the difference of Bargnani playing extra minutes against the opponent’s best players.

      • mountio

        Thanks. I guess its hard to draw too many conclusions from this.

  • RapthoseLeafs

    When you think about the Dallas game, one has to wonder if this was really an upset. At least for a certain group of fans. There are several reasons why they shouldn’t call the Dallas win a remarkable one.
    – No Dirk means big advantage Raptor – a sentiment amongst all Raptor fans (BBall-IQ or not)
    – No Bargnani means another advantage – according to WoP. Of course, now this Raptor “base” gets smaller.
    – Bayless should be starting (even if Jose wasn’t out) – an even smaller crowd now. But a big enough group – one that I would argue, would say they weren’t surprised.
    Granted, Amir was hurt, and Barbosa was banged up (he’s been hurt all season – still playing pretty decent). However, Kleiza was good; Davis said he was fine; Dorsey had lots of pop in him; Bayless played through his first ankle twist okay, while Wright seemed fine (and got to play more – another plus for this Raptor group who advocate the head-band guy – as I do as well). And as far as I know, Demar held together okay. With Weems out, that precipitated more time for Julian fry.
    One could say that I’m actually arguing against Jose & Bargs – I wouldn’t, and it goes against my nature … :-0 – but to me, this was simply effort & heart that made this a remarkable win. Everything seemed to fall into place – allowing the Raptors to steal one in Maverick land. All the ducks lined up.

    • cesco

      Who cares if Andrea and Dirk were not playing . This win means a ton for the future of our franchise since the young ones became of age , they proved themselves in the trenches to use a military term (with the help of some veterans) . They won a big battle but there will be many battles in the future to win or lose.

      • RapthoseLeafs

        I agree …. I was just giving a little dig to those who continue to suggest we’ll win more games if Bargnani is off the court (including injured).
        As I ended my comment, this was a big win – as it allowed some of the younger guys to step up and show that they belong. Of course it was only one game, but anything that demonstrates progress, is how this season should be viewed. Not what-if, could-if scenarios.

  • Archerershotintoshrippers

    First off let me jsut start by saying that calderon is pathetic. SHEER HORSESH**. So worthless and soft, hardly gives an effort and is not willing to play through any sort of pain to earn that ridculous contract. But this calderon, he aint no dummy, He kisses so much ass, so much salad tossed about toronto that the fans at the ACC refuse to boo him

    second, not worried about the pg spot. blayless kind of deserved to roll his ankle from all the whinning he does on the court at his teammates and quite frankly i want to see BC sqander after once again as jose sits out from a bruised uterus. Now if barbra gets injured derozan can run the point and get soem good experince seeing as he and ed davis are the future of this team not that soft pansy ballerina 5 rpg center oyster aka TAG

    third, Wright is dogsh**, enough already leo

    fourth, i’m going to hit up the hub

    Joe Luberman out

    • John_P

      Learn how to write you incoherent slob. Also your suggestion of DeRozan running the point has to be quite possibly the stupidest thing ever written on this board. He has the worst handle of any guard on the team and has no ability to create for others.

      • Luberman

        Derozan running the point is genius, what better way for him to work on his game not to mention he might be ale to teach blayless and barbosa how to pass. Every game for the rest of the season should be dedicated to rossanne, sacraficed for his developement. Everyone else on the team is a scrub with the upside of dupree minus ed davis who by the way should be backup point. Ball should be in derozans hand at all times and he should be getting all the shots to work on his jumper as well. Its quite clear that the league has chosen derozan as the teams next allstar as he gets calls an owl like kleiza wish’s he could get. I say dont fight the trend and the corrupt league

        • John_P

          DeRozan would need to learn how to pass himself, before he could teach anyone else how to pass. This isn’t even worth debatinge because if a team ever saw DeRozan bring the ball up the floor, they wouldn’t hesitate trapping him because he has no ball handling skills and giving him that responsibility wont change that.

  • JoeLubermanFartInACanteen

    this just in: apparently peja has been playing his entire career without a jaw

    • KD

      That’s some funny shit!