derozan attempt

A few people have asked me on Twitter and in Daily Dime Live of late, “what is wrong with DeMar Deozan?” After all, he started the season out pretty strong, quieting those who were down on his contract extension.

Lately, however, DeRozan has seemingly regressed. Take a look at the raw numbers:
derozan dropoff raw
That’s a pretty dramatic drop off from the early part of the season to the past month. Basically, DeRozan had made incremental improvements across the board, but then fell off in a serious way. If we look at more advanced stats, the story is the same:
derozan dropoff adv
So what’s the answer? Two potential reasons I could think of were fatigue from the heavy minutes load early in the season and mental fatigue from frequently not getting calls on attacks to the rim. The former is likely a small part of it, but given his age and ability to handle a similar workload last season with a more condensed schedule, I doubt it’s a major factor. The latter is potentially just homerism, but if true, counter-intuitive, since the only way to start getting those borderline calls is to continue to establish yourself as an attacking presence.

Whatever the reason behind it, DeRozan is very clearly making poor decisions in the past month, at least in terms of where he decides to take his shots from:
derozan dropoff shot
Regardless of why he’s doing this, there’s your reason as to why his efficiency and output has decreased. Fewer shots at the rim, more shots from the mid-range and fewer free throw attempts. That’s a recipe for inefficient scoring.

Since DeRozan only has enough of a three-point shot to threaten the defense when wide-open (he is shooting just 25.5% on threes above the break and 26.3% on corner threes), most of his points need to come at the line unless he can manage to shoot an insane percentage on mid-range shots. Since he hits just a hair over 40% from the mid-range, it means you’re expecting about 0.81 points per possession where DeRozan fires up a mid-range jumper. Mid-range jumpers are, of course, also far less likely to result in a trip to the free throw line than are shots at the rim (where, for the record, DeRozan hits about 58% of his attempts).

Going to the rim means a higher percentage of makes and a greater rate of free throw attempts, so why is DeRozan shying away from them? It’s difficult to say, really.

According to Synergy, DeRozan is one of the league’s best offensive players in isolations, post-ups, hand-offs and as the pick-and-roll ball handler. That’s an impressive offensive profile, to rank in the top-32 in all of those areas, plus 55th off screens.

However, even with all of those great strengths, he’s just 163rd overall in terms of points per possession, meaning he’s not using his possessions optimally, it would seem. For one, pick-and-roll ball handlers and players shooting off of screens and hand-offs generally produce fewer points per possession, so part of the drop in rank is just due to him being a wing player. I’m not sure what the remedy is here, as the only real difference between DeRozan at 163 and, say, Gordon Hayward at 118 is Hayward’s three-point shooting (and the fact that Hayward somehow has 14 And-1s to DeRozan’s 12, ouch).

As it is, DeRozan ranks just 25th in PER among shooting guards, erasing pretty much all of his early-season progress. If Win Shares is your thing (it’s not mine), he has made no noticeable improvement on a per-48 minute basis over the past two years, still falling short of his rookie campaign. If you’re real nerdy (like me) and Adjusted Statistical Plus-Minus is more your bag, DeRozan has been a slight negative at both ends of the floor, providing more or less the same value as last year (above replacement-level, below-average).

I don’t have the solution. I know that this isn’t it:
derozan shotchart lakers
And neither are these:
derozan shotchart bulls2derozan shotchart sixers
Those are his last three games. I also know that this one, from back on November against the Nets, in a game where he also took 10 free throw attempts, is more like it:
derozan shotchart nets nov
I don’t have the solution. If it’s mental, then show him the stats and the shot charts and the video. He showed in November that he knows getting to the stripe is the best way to be an above-average wing scorer, if you don’t have the three-pointer in your arsenal. If it’s fatigue, shorten his minutes for a handful of games until he gets his legs back. If it’s mental fatigue, tell him to call Ramon Sessions, who gets to the line more often and certainly isn’t getting superstar whistles.

Again, I don’t have the solution. But the shot distribution from the past month is the reason he’s not putting up points, and not putting them up efficiently when he does.

Dig deep and find that early-season, “prove-Hollinger-wrong” aggression, and start heading to the rim again. It might hurt physically, but it’s going to be a lot more rewarding than hoisting 18-foot jumpers with a 40% success rate.


  • Theswirsky

    The problem with this entire write up is it assumes Demar is a good player in the first place, or atleast as good as he was to start the season.

    A more simple view says Demar overperformed to start the year and is reverting to the mean.

    • p00ka

      And God knows there’s plenty of simpletons around that need a “more simple view”.

      • Destro

        Its funny you choose to see it in some players but not others…

    • Jamshid

      Hahahaha, I was going to write the exact same thing and saw that you beat me to it. 

    • raptorspoo

      Jamshid beat me to my comment also 😉

      As much as the media has sold you suckers on how good DD is, he just sucks – plain and simple. Ok.. maybe ‘sucks’ is a little harsh but his unrealiability, limited skill and inconsistencies make him a 6th man on a decent team at best.

      He’s been given all the opportunity in the world to succeed but if you don’t have it, you don’t have it. Doesn’t matter how much time you give him. Ditto with Bargs.

      Rather have a player with less ‘stardom’ like a Mike Conley or Tony Allen over DD cause you know they’re reliable.

      • wes mantooth

        1000% tony allen over DD! hes better then demar. probably almost as good on offense and light years ahead of him on defence

        • FAQ

          you suck raptorspoo… sooooo obvious

      • Dan

         I agree. I’ve been saying since the start of the season if you look at his stats he has not improved since his rookie year. The only time his stats seem to increase are when his minutes do and he’s never shot a better fg% then his rookie season. Demar is no better then Nick Young. Go look at Nick Young’s stats when he got to start for Washington. The only difference between the two players is Demar has had Bryan do everything he can to convince people he is a better player than he is. If it weren’t for the contract Ross would probably get more of the minutes Derozan gets. At the end of every game they always bring Demar back in and it makes no sense. He is a worse defender and shooter than Ross and can’t create his own shot. Bryan should have let the market dictate what Demar was worth.
        People looking at Demars stats and comparing them to Gay need to look at Gay’s stats when he was the number one option on his team. Gay was clearly better.

    • FAQ

      I predict DD will be triple the player next season when his salary jumps to $10 mill from the current $3+ mill…. just watch….

      • raptorspoo

        Ya! just like AB was triple the player when his salary jump LMAO

        I’m watching buddy 😉

        • Dan

           It’s hilarious fans have not caught on that Bryan uses the early contract extensions to mask his players low values. He can sign them to big contracts and then claim he had several GM’s tell him that is a bargain. If he were to let them go to free agency they wouldn’t get nearly that much and it would shed more light on Bryan’s poor drafting.

      • What the

        na next season DD will have his fake injury while we Tank for Wiggins,don’t worry about DD.

    • Moron Alert

      Yeh, thats the answer – moron.

      • raptorspoo

        whoa whoa~ i know you’re sticking up for your boyfriend but you don’t have to be so mean.

  • CalgaryRapsFan

    Lack of talent.

    Lack of skill/personality to be a #1 option on the court and/or as the ‘face of the franchise’.

    Inability to live up to and earn his new contract.

    Fear of becoming the next ‘Bargnani’ among the often overly sensitive fanbase.

    • Jamshid

      Raptor fans are not overly sensitive but actually too supportive. You look at knicks fans, Lakers’ fans and other good teams in the league and you see that they demand wins and hard work.
      We don’t here :) 
      Demar is not a #1 option in a good team. He is not even a #2 option in a good team and with his defence, AST and ball handling, he is not even a third best player in a good team. He is Kevin Martin type player :)

      • jjdynomite

        Kevin Martin is far better, he can actually make 3s.

      • Dan

         Martin is a much better player then Demar. Better shooter, ball handler, IQ. Most of the seasons where he was given the minutes and shots Demar gets now he was an over 20 ppg scorer. Harden in a bench role last year put up similar stats too. Doesn’t mean last year Demar was as good as Harden. Same with Mayo. Demar gets given to much credit because people like to compare him to other players when they are in smaller rolls rather then compare him to the other players stats when they are playing as a number 1 option with heavy minutes. A better comparison would be Gerald Henderson.
        .

      • SR

        Kevin Martin is also paid a little more than Demar (will be).

        No one is saying DD is a franchise player – just a top scoring option on the current roster.  Big, big difference.  Franchise players make double the value of DD’s new contract.

  • Ctr2nv

    I’m just carious, does anyone know why D.Casey keeps DeMar in for the full 1st,3rd? We’re healthy again at the wing positions, why not tell him to go hard for the first 8-9 minutes and bring him back around the 7-8 minute mark in the 2nd Q? And same goes for the 2nd half. 

    • Nilanka15

      So far this season, Casey hasn’t been known to make quick adjustments to his rotations based on how the game is unfolding.  He prefers to stick to his pre-determined schedule and hope for the best, lol.

      • p00ka

        Hmmm, I’m not going to go back for the entire season, but since “so far” includes the most recent games, some minute distributions by game:

        Lowry- 17, 25, 17, 15, 34, 36, 18
        Jose  – 31, 23, 31, 29, 21, 20, 30
        Fields- 42, 33, 29, 40, 18, 13, 38

        Those, and others, don’t support this “stick to his pre-determined schedule and hope for the best” concept, but supports the concept of adjustments, however you may disagree with how “quick” they are, which isn’t the discussion.

    • KJ-B

      Great point.  But if you compare his dropoff to other top 10-15 minutes per games guys in the league you’ll see similarities. 

      Paul Pierce is shooting 35% over the last four games–Kobe would kill for that % in his recent outings–LeBron is complaining of tendonitis..its just par the course this time of year, until players realize the aches won’t go away and they must adjust their practice time/intensity etc and get better rest and take care of themselves of the court.  

      With some guidance by the coaching staff, he’ll make it out the funk….

      • Milesboyer

        He might make it out of his funk but he’s still only worth about half of his contract (extension).  Why the hell BC felt the need to extend him and not let the season play out is…..well, typical of BC.

        • Dan

           Because now he can sell Demar as a 10 million dollar star. And he selling him as a face of the franchise. Look at what Mayo settled for this year. Does anyone really believe Demar was going to go out and get even close to or more then the 10 mill Bryan gave him.

          • Nilanka15

            Missing out on the Mayo sweepstakes still haunts me…

            • What the

              why? we got Barney, just ask CJT,Dumbasskicker and few of the fanboys who don’t think that the Raps need to Tank the right way Cavs/Wiz style in order to get a franchise player instead they rather talk about the #9 pick DD and wondering whats wrong with him, man I can’t wait until nilanka jr. grows and plays for the raps… Kings/Sonics will have a star beside Cus and on their way before the Raps do

          • What the

            don’t tell lies Barny is face of this franchise come hell or high water he was picked first over all and just ask him and he’ll tell you that he’s the teams best player so don’t be telling lies about him being the face of the franchise. 

          • SR

            Yes.

            The value of the Mayo contract is an outlier and a pointless comparison.

            Take a look at other players in the 9-11 million range (http://espn.go.com/nba/salaries/_/page/2).  DD is easily better than half those guys at present, and still has the potential to improve some more.

            • wes mantooth

              wow that was interesting.. after reading that i learned the best bargains in the nba are thad young, illiyasova and LOU WILLIAMS!! holy shit! that guy only makes 5 million! i’d take him over demar in a second. if demar doesnt learn to play D and rebound, his size at the 2 is useless, and hes an okay version of a one way player. i’d much rather have an under sized 2 that scores. like monte, lou, jamal crawford eric gordon and of course the cheap OJ!
              on another note, the raps really need to consider giving ross alot more of demars and landrys minutes. he has the confidence, natural ability,defense  and star quality in his rookie year that demar will never have.all of this with a limited platform to prove himself! the better he gets the worse derozans contract looks. alot of people including me thought he might be a dud at first, and dd’s contract wasnt so bad ,but hes clearly not! dd was a starter from day1 cause the raps thought he would get confidant if they showed him confidence . this guy has “IT” i think and the raps need to accelerate his development cause he could be great. 

    • FLUXLAND

      If he’s inserted during those moments and doesn’t produce, he soils the product while fans stop talking about his “potential”. And he’s less desirable in trade talks, so best to keep that hope alive… DD just needs minutes, at the right times, to show us his talent, right?  #StraightBullshit (DD tweet for not playing in the 4th q, deleted by him like a good company man)

      • FAQ

        Tribal honking Moronto fans just love their heroes… remember all the love that was pouring out on the RR forums for their beloved Bosh.  DD is the closest the fans have for a Raptor hero… although some seem to have adopted pretty boy Kyle Lowry too.  Go figure….

        • onemanweave

          Faq ol buddy, good to see you have brought your alter ego out of moth balls. Gives us a double dose of your wit and wisdom. Hope you curtail the dialogue between you and ‘flux’, though. In a lesser intellect, it could be a sign of mental imbalance, although two negatives do indeed make a ….. .

          • FLUXLAND

            Funny. But if you actually paid attention, there’s little we agree on, at this point. FAQ, to his credit, is far less cynical than I am.

            Oh the irony..the delusional speaks of mental imbalance. Whatever gives your comfort, I suppose.

            • onemanweave

              Flax,  Self-esteem is important. Faq is equally cynical, almost like you were joined at birth. The split personality thing will work itself out.

  • p00ka

    Any chance it’s at least in part due to teams focusing differently on him now, due to his early season prowess, as well as Bargnani, who draws more defensive attention than anybody else on the team, being out during this drop in efficiency/production?

    When it comes to assists and rebounding, the landscape has also changed quite a bit since the return of both AA and Fields into the rotation.

    He’s still young and learning, while playing with other young and learning guys, all working on their chemistry together, while injuries have caused constant fluctuation in the make-up of the team. I think it’s a little early to be asking what’s “wrong” with him, based on naked stats.

    • FAQ

      You’re prolly right… he’s still young and learning and only pulling down a measly $3+mill this season…. but next season he should blossom… when he gets the $10 mill … it’s called “incentive” BC-style ….!!!!

    • Alucart999

      In fact if you watch the games, teams are not focusing on DeRozan at all. They know that they can leave him alone on the perimeter and it really doesn’t hurt a team much because of his inability to make wide open three point shots or create anything from out there. Right now, opposing team scouting reports are probably mostly about Calderon, Lowry, and Ed Davis. For DeRozan, just keep him away from the rim and you’re golden, because he’s so inefficient from just about everywhere else.

  • MJ

    This is a better analysis than anything written in Raptors media coverage. Nice work. But have to agree with the above comment – he really is just average, and hard to watch on D.

    DeRozen lives and dies by his jumpshot and if he doesn’t take it to the rim he is very average. Anderson has outplayed him with his better D, handles, 3 point shot and desire to make an impact and get tough when the game matters. All these qualities he is sorely lacking. I like his work ethic to his game, but I think most people can see with the eye test what he is. Your stats suggest a return to the mean. Maybe he can improve and evolve because he is young, but unfortunately we already committed to him with $ and are stuck waiting to find out.

    Personally – I think he has been gifted far too many minutes, and should be held more accountable for getting burned on D. I mean, the dude couldn’t even contain Rocky Belinelli. On a team trying to get tough and respectable by pounding the rock, he needs to step up in a big way. Can you really say we’d drop off much if Demar’s minutes were changed with Anderson or Ross? I honestly think we’d improve and that’s not an overreaction, his game has been frustrating me long before we gifted him that rich contract.

  • Nilanka15

    I think I found DeMar’s problem….he can’t dribble or shoot 😐

    • what the

      neither could your boy Gary Forbes but….

      • Nilanka15

        Dude, Gary Forbes is fucking garbage.  He’s up there with the Fred Jones, Will Solomons, and Rick Brunsons of the world.  Stop being such a Forbes fanboy.

        • Steve

          That’s not what you were saying before Mittlanka.:) :) 

    • black angus

      and he is soft, a horrible defender, can’t pass and has recently been diagnosed with having baby hands. Yet will still make $9 million a season. Classic Calengelo.

      • Sig

         Damn you Calengelo!

  • NyAlesund

    What’s the problem? Too much money.

  • what the

    problem is he doesnt have broken pasta to space out the floor for him.

    • FAQ

      I bet DD could suck in 4 strings of spaghetti through his teeth… and when Bargs is gone Primo could pick up DD showing his stuff with a bowl of spaghetinni after practices.

  • 511

    For the most part, I’m more optimistic on DeMar. The improvement he showed from last year to the beginning of this year was – to me – instantly visible: he was bigger and stronger and his shot had seemed to have improved considerably. So I felt good about what we were seeing during the first leg of the season. 

    So, what’s going on now? 

    I’d say it’s gotta be a head thing. I can’t see how he’d be physically fatigued, at all, to this point. But mentally, maybe. It might be that he’s unconsciously sulking about not getting calls – all that whiney body language (when he doesn’t get the call) HAS to take its toll somehow … I’d figure. 

    And maybe having the ‘best player on the team’ thing thrust on him (by some) – so the go-to guy (which he hardly ever manifests at all to this point) – long before he might actually believe, himself, that he’s ready to really be that, is wearing on him. Along with carrying all that while losing so often, especially when a good number of the losses were near-wins. 

    I even wonder how (un)likely it really is that he might even be reading what we’re all saying about him from day-to-day. (I know that seems waaayyy unlikely … but it must be tempting to see what fans are thinking about you when it’s so easily accessible the way it is, ya know? A lot of us would have a look on occasion.) And if that’s possible – and god, I really hope not – well … I don’t even wanna think about it. It’d wear anyone down. (if you are … Stop reading this shit DeMar! WTF do we know? Listen to your coaches!)

    If, as I’m hoping (I’m a Raptors fan – hope is what I got) he’s just in the second stage of ‘two-steps-forward-one-step-back’, then, the next step will be another growth stage. 

    If I was his personal coach, we’d be doing a lot of strength training on his legs and core. Enough with the building of shoulders and arms. Get some explosiveness in the legs. Lots of short sprints, as well, with his feet pointing in the direction that he’s heading. I don’t like the way his feet are splayed when he runs … and that can be fixed. But it should be done now. 

    • KJ-B

      It’s funny because everybody was probably saying the same thing about Joe Johnson to start the season… But now Joe is having the last laugh.

      The thing is just to pace oneself and don’t make the game too tough.  DeRozan needs to fight through what the D is doing, spend more time on the block regardless of the different lineups with Alan Anderson, Fields, Ross etc. and get to the line–the fact that league defences don’t want him to get to the wing to post up or dribble drive means that’s EXACTLY where he needs to be.  To keep doing what he was do and keep improving and being a valuable asset to the Raps!

      Abuse the paint and get to the free throw line–keep going til the whistles blow!

    • FAQ

      Maybe DD “is” reading RR and is becoming dejected because nobody seems to show him some love… thus affecting him psychologically.  Depression can creep up on you without you knowing it.  DD looks might sad to me given the look on his face. 

      Maybe he’s pizzed off at BC for not boosting his contract up to $10 mill this season instead just leaving him with a measly $3+mill this season.  It must be demoralizing and makes DD an unhappy camper in TO.

      Seems DD is waiting for next season to produce 100% with his 30% effort this season.

      • onemanweave

          Faq, ol buddy, if depression is creeping up on you without knowing it — time for a little self awareness and maybe a snickers bar. You’re not yourself when you’re hungry. Hang in there buddy, we’re pullin for ya.

    • Dan

       Go on nba.com and look at Demars stats every year. Look at his minutes and shooting% too not just points. Other then his rebounding he has not improved since his second season. Even then it was less improvement but more just an increase in minutes.

      • 511

        I had a look at that, thanks, and … ya, I’m a bit surprised. While I’d guess that his shooting % was probably better the first couple or so months of this season – and it’d also be interesting to me to see first half/second half – of games – split if there is such a thing (I’d guess the numbers’d look better for the first half of games) – sometimes maybe I see what I wanna see. Interesting. 

        **A note to Blake: The stat boxes in your post show Time Frame year being 2011-12, not 2012-13. (?) 

  • canuck_eh

    “Face of the franchise”? Show me another team whose face of the franchise earns $10M/season. Now, I’m the first to admit that DD’s play has tailed off a little, and I’d like to see him not to settle for as many jumpers (get the s% back up), but he’s currently a top-30 scorer in the league, and this season has become the focus of other team’s D. Not to mention, as pointed out by another poster, Bargs isn’t on the floor to spread things out and not grab rebounds. 

    Chill.You guys are constantly complaining about salaries like it comes directly out of your pockets, but no one wearing Raptors red is making the big bucks – Jose’s our highest paid and 49th in the league… You want to see some bad salaries, go here: http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm.

    • KJ-B

      I do agree with your point–it’s obvious DeRozan has hit the wall never playing this many minutes in his career and the overplaying earlier in the season in those over time/ close games when he was going really well has turned around to bite Casey you know where…
      In regards to the money coming out the pockets of fans–Where on earth does MLSE’s Rogers, Bell make their money..?

      Exactly…

      Back to DeRozan, he’s the only Rap who’s started every game, playing heavy minutes and barely missed a game over his career–could almost bet that he’s got mad tendonitis right now…Probably til All Star Break, when he gets a few days of rest, we probably won’t see the early season consistent DeRozan, would be my guess…

      Toronto fans, if he were on another team, they’d be like trade for that guy, is a team guy, plays within a system, is young and is improving…Oh silly TDot fans you–buy him low, he’s going through a rough patch!

      • Dan

         His play 36.8 per game. Last year was was 35 and the year before 34.8

        • Dan

           If he played for another team he wouldn’t get the minutes or shot attempts he gets here and would be just another average sg. The only reason you over value him is because he is on the team you follow so you see him more then other average sg’s. You don’t think JR smith or Nick Young or Kevin martin could not equal or better his stats with the same minutes and shot attempts?

      • canuck_eh

        …it appears as though we agree on most things, but are you really going to go with the “I pay their salaries” angle, or are you just being facetious? Even if it was your money, BC has the 5th lowest payroll in the league (and every team that pays out less is worse than us, other than Houston which has back-ended it’s contracts), so I’d say he’s been pretty tight with the purse strings.

        You could make the argument that someone should get a million less here or there, but for the most part, they earn what they should earn plus some playing in Toronto tax. This forum is a whack-a-mole of complaints about salaries – one week it’s Jose, then it’s Amir, then it’s Fields… Some were gambles that in hindsight didn’t pay off, e.g. I thought it was reasonable to pay $10M to a 7-footer who showed upside and could stretch the floor, but I’m sure BC has an aversion to letting guys get to FA…that hasn’t worked out so well for this team/city.

    • FLUXLAND

      Except no other team
      in the L would call DD..

      (aka Perfected
      Spin To Turnover Move aka I Sell Work Ethic As Watching Highlights Of Myself
      While Drunk on NYE aka I Know I Suck So I Won’t Test The FA aka I Sign Contracts Like I’m Shooting A Scene From Tropic Thunder aka # I’m The Real Clown aka Hits The Rookie
      Wall Every Season aka I Jack Up Shots In The First Quarter aka And
      I Play Casper For The Next Three aka Straight BullShit (King DD voice) aka Lazy
      Garfield Eyes aka Sonny Made Losing Fun For Me aka Rebounding Is For Peasants aka My Off Season Consisted Of Getting My Braces Off..) 

       

      …a franchise guy
      or run a system around him, but let’s keep talking about how athletic and young he is and how much he’s learning .  #BC7year project no.2 #FarmTeamForever

      • FAQ

        Okay.. now tell me who thinks FLUX is FAQ…????!!!!!

      • canuck_eh

        Funny post, but to reiterate my initial point, how does $10M/season make someone a franchise guy in the NBA? There are no $10M franchise guys in the league…

        Here’s what Colangelo and mgmt said about the signing: http://www.torontosun.com/2012/11/01/colangelo-defends-derozan-contract. I see “core guy” not “franchise player”. Seems like a reasonable gamble with limited repercussions to me. Since the big names aren’t banging down our door to get up here (…man, a Canadian hero turned down $10M a season to play in Canada), the best way to improve is through talent development. Other than Jennings (from Italy no less!) and Holiday is there someone else you wanted from the 2009 draft?

        • FLUXLAND

          Hmmm… you sound caught up in BC semantics. Look at how he’s treated, marketed and the minutes he gets, not what BC is saying..and the system being driven around him speaks franchise player. I don’t even know what this core BS is all about… is that the go to verbiage when you have no real franchise player?

          Development…is that what you call what goes on around here? I’m gonna need some examples of this. Also, need an example of talent, not potential.

          Reasonable gamble with limited repercussions? I guess if you are into the whole farm team thing, I don’t either.

          (Ever wonder why if Jose is the PG God he’s thought to be, no big names are coming here?  Based on the many claims of his greatness, guys should be taking less money to come up here. I mean, I’m glad it’s taken him 6 years to become acceptable, but I guess in a few more years we can expect a proper inbound pass.)

          Who cares about what could have been…why are we not asking why BC picks projects when he has a 1 – 10 pick? Ohh, right,we can sell potential around here and call it a reasonable gamble, not like there’s actual basketball acumen around; we rely on “advanced stats” and when it goes bunk we can chalk it up to “unlucky” .

          We should just chill and watch potential turn into nothing of significance while taking comfort in their salary… if that’s your cup of tea.

          • p00ka

            Haven’t managed to get that dildo out of your butt, eh. See, mommy told you not to put it there, and now it’s permanently stuck, and on,,,,,, what’s that speed,,,,, moronic I think,,, yeah, that’s your cup of tea.

          • canuck_eh

            Actually, if you read through the article, there are a few people from the Raptors who were quoted beyond BC. You’ll note the “core” comment came from Casey…but don’t let that get in the way of your BC diatribe. You keep looking for all those signs: “Treated”? I don’t know what that means. “Marketed”? They market everyone, so says my Landry Fields ticket from the Bulls game and Amir/Jose splash page on the Raptors site. You want more Aaron Gray posters up in the TTC? “Minutes”? DD’s the highest scorer on the team. Would you prefer Anderson – with his .377 FG% – got more time?

            Players that were developed here: McGrady, Carter, Bosh, Jose…keeping them has been the challenge.

            Yeah, reasonable gamble, limited repercussions. Is DD taking up a spot that would otherwise have a superstar in it? Is his $10M too onerous a hit on the cap? Is it a long contract? No, no and no.

            Jose’s been on the cusp of being a top 10 PG in the league for a 5-6 seasons – in his third season with us, he went 50/40/90. He has one of the best assist/turnover ratios of all time (of aallllll time). His demise has been predicted many times before and every time he’s stepped to the challenge, outplayed the new-fangled alternative, and been remarkably professional about it, considering. Plenty of other GMs salivate at prying him away.

            Have a look out your office window to see what keeps the free agents away…it ain’t Jose. Other than the most recent tease about KD loving the dinos, we’re not the dream destination for most aspiring NBAers.

            How many top 10 picks has BC had in his tenure? I’m going to watch this Hoffa Araujo’s greatest plays package on Youtube while I wait for your answer. (It’s four: first, ninth, fifth and eighth.) Would you have preferred Brandon Roy’s knees? Or LaMarcus Aldridge’s weak heart? Maybe instead of Demar in 2009, he could have gone with another star of the Italian League and picked Jennings…that would have gone over well with the locals.

            The Raptors curse: our only shot at a number one pick comes in the draft with no clear favourite…lots of bball writers who know a heckuva lot more than me, didn’t think Bargs was that bad of a pick at the time. He’s still a very good second or third option on a team – just not likely ours.

            As a long-suffering fan since Ed Pinckney took that first tip, there’s certainly been more lows than highs. This season has seen its share of both, but the last month+ has been a great ride… e.g. OT against the Bulls, whooping the Lakers. Try to enjoy it, or take up a new interest.

            • 511

              Great post. 

              • FLUXLAND

                To anyone that’s delusional, it sure was.

              • canuck_eh

                Cheers – looks like Fluxland doesn’t agree. Shocking.

            • FLUXLAND

              Really funny stuff in here.

              TMac developed in TO? Really? Are you high? Vince developed? He coasted and never tapped into his potential. Bosh did, sure, at the expense of the record… and ensured himself a spot on team Troika Axis Of Evil..Jose has stat padded the entire time.

              Yes I would take Brandon Roy, he’s done more in his short tenure than DD ever will and would take LA easy. At least they clearly had talent…they weren’t projects.

              You keep using your contract/accounting and stat filled arguments to feel better about things.. the records speak for themselves.

              And it’s not what I see outside of my office window, it’s the garbage organization. Players would come to a winning culture if the team was on Mars. Don’t be naive.

              • canuck_eh

                Man, you’re a real malcontent – must be a joy at parties.

                I didn’t realize you’d have all these caveats for what you consider to be player development: McGrady was anointed team leader of the Magic the day he showed up in Orlando, was selected as an All-Star that season, and pretty much single-handedly took them to the play-offs. Think he would have done that fresh out of highschool?Carter became the most exciting player in the league – ask Durant – put Toronto on the map and almost put us in the Eastern Conference Finals. Did it end well? Nope. Did we develop him? Yep.

                Bosh…well, you don’t seem to refute that, you just don’t seem to like him much.

                Jose a stat padder?? Haha. Now who’s the high one? He’s one of the least selfish ball players I’ve ever seen. 

                I asked about BR and LA in relation to the AB selection, not a comparison to DD. I liked BR and his story is a tough one, but he had two really good seasons, peaking in his third, and then became a financial albatross (thank god for the amnesty, eh Mr. Allen?) 

                “Stop using stats and facts and stuff, it’s getting in the way of my whining…”

                At times this has not been a well run organization to be sure, but don’t underestimate the repellent qualities of the 49th parallel to a lot of guys. Even Capt Canada didn’t want to return for obscene money…

                I look forward to your cloud-in-the-silver-lining summary of last night’s OT loss to the champs at home.

    • Dan

       There are a lot more deeper teams this year where players are scoring less because they have more talent on their team now. If the Raptors had more talent Demar wouldn’t be scoring 17 a game. Ellis, Jennings Joe Johnson, Dwight Howard, Kevin martin, Jr smith, Amare, Zack Randolf, Marc Gasol, Bosh. There are a lot of guys who could be scoring over 20 a game if they were put in Demars position. Then you have guys out who are good scorers like Granger and Rose. Even Andrea is a much more talented scorer. That’s why Demar is over valued and over rated. When these other guys were the # one option they all put up better numbers and were all stars or borderline all stars. Demar is nowhere close and has had 3 years now to play 35 mins plus and shoot as often as he wants and the best he has managed is 17 ppg on 43% shooting. If the Raptors ever bring in more talent Demars stats will go down not up. He is not talented enough to lead a team.

      • canuck_eh

        Apologies, but I don’t understand your point…you’ve listed off a bunch of players that are better than Derozan, are all paid more than Derozan (except for Jennings, who’s still under his rookie contract) and complained that Derozan doesn’t get as many points as they would in his situation. Well, that’s why Derozan gets $10M and J.  Johnson gets $20M a season…I know which contract I’d rather have on my payroll right now, and I’m perfectly happy that a Russian oligarch is paying Johnson’s exorbitant rate. (http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=derozde01&y1=2013&p2=johnsjo02&y2=2013)
        And not to pick on Joe Johnson too much, but in his fourth season, he was averaging single digit points and was starting less than half of Phx games…

        You can talk in hypotheticals all you want. Right now Derozan is the leading scorer on this team. Aside from FG%, he’s having the best statistical season of his (short) career this year. Bargs has been shite or injured this season. By default, all that makes Derozan the supposed face of the franchise. Would I like to have Dwight Howard up here? Marc Gasol? Bosh? Yeah, (..though there was a lot of grief directed at that last guy when he was “the face of the franchise”), but last time I checked, those guys weren’t banging down our door to play in T.O.

        • Roarque

          Canuck_eh

          Man I hate it when guys use facts and stats to stop the true RR guys from pissing all over the Raps. Want to lay off the truth a bit dude so we can all get back to drooling over Pau and Rudy and wishing CB4 was back in TO?

          One thing though. Just watched a clip on Dirk and Nash when they first arrived in the NBA. Man did those two guys SUCK – almost booed out of Dallas. Then they got it. One day they got it. Remember the day you finally started hitting the driver straight and then the next day it was still working and by day 3 you were working on the draw?

          Stick around RR boys and when they do start hitting their stride remember you heard it here first. IT TAKES TIME TO GET GOOD IN THE NBA. So pick your talent – may I suggest ED, Jonas, DDR and Kyle would be a good start. And don’t give up on DDR and Amir who ar both still young. So is Bargo but nobody’s found the switch to turn that dude on yet. Someone will.

  • Balls of Steel

    I hate that scene where he runs in the tunnel to sign his new contract as if it couldn’t wait until after the game. He doesn’t have the handles and is not a good finisher / closer. Kirk Hirnrich was running around him in circles at the Chicago game. I’m almost inclined to say that Jose’s defense has improved over DD. Well, this is another BC magic in play. Good luck to this franchise with him at the 2 for the next 4 years!!!

    • FLUXLAND

      Why would that surprise you? They brought a rock into the building and had news stories about it. Didn’t the Raptor jump out of a fake rock during the first home game?  The whole operation is a clown show.

      • FAQ

        I don’t know about that FLX… I seem to harbour a somewhat paranoid conspiracy feeeling about what’s happening with the TRaps… it’s almost as if BC is intentionally degrading the team… but why would he do that??!!

        Here’s what I think is happening underfoot.. just stand back and take a holistic view of BC’s deviousness.  He wants to destroy the fan base with a rotten product, but that’s not all… MLSE is also in collusion with BC and he is their beard, their front man.

        MLSE would love to sell this overvalued franchise, perhaps to Las Vegas interests, and if the t.h.f.’s abandon the Raps the franchise could be sold back to the US… and BC would be rewarded as the president and GM of the new franchise.

        Everybody here is so involved with the minutae they can’t see the trees for the forest (or is it forest for the trees, I always get mixed up).. just watch….

        • FLUXLAND

          BC and the reign keep giving what fans are accepting. If they are accepting shyte, while staying in the red, why change the formula?

          It’s sad we live in a NBA era where Cubes won a chip and fronts a contender every year (on average) all the while losing money over the years, while this operation is making profits based on hope and illusion while sporting a Clippers like stretch of yearly records. Corporate ownership vs individual ownership – different goals. 

          It’s a NBDL team in the NBA that makes money and facilitates transactions. No reason to sell a cashcow.

          • Steve

            How are your Lakers doing ?? :) :) Now you have 2 sites to troll :)

  • Jer

    Whats wrong is he sucks but it is stupid colangelo’s fault for giving him the contract. I wonder if it is even possible to move Demar to another team without throwing in a draft pick as part of the deal…I dont think so…The raps are stuck with this scrub smh

  • j bean

    Not trying to fuel anything but he plays better with Lowry. I think it’s because Lowry gets him the ball with more space to slash to the rim and showed a lot of confidence in him. When he just gets the ball on the perimeter and has to try and beat 2-3 guys or get a call it’s a problem. If he worked on his passing game more it would help in keeping him from being doubled all the time.

  • unknown

    Maybe he is juggling two women and it is messing with his performance at work.

    • FAQ

      … you mean juggling four “jugs”… WOW.. that would help his defensive handwork…!!!!

  • Statement

    DeRozan is DeSuck.

    I’m obviously a Raptors fan,, so I’m (blindly?) optimistic that Derozan will evolve into a net positive contributor, but if I’m being realistic, I’m not sure if that will ever come true.

    Part of me wants to say “but he’s still young”, which is true.  However, the dude has played MAJOR minutes since his rookie year, so it’s not like he hasn’t had AMPLE opportunity to get better.

    He is a hardworker and nice young man by all accounts, he just sucks.

    • Statement

      Let me be more specific,

      He has NBA level offensive-talent, he is just wildly overpayed.  If you think Amir Johnson is overpaid, then Derozan should be like Gilbert Arenas to you.

  • FLUXLAND

    “Two potential reasons I could think of were fatigue from the heavy
    minutes load early in the season and mental fatigue from frequently not
    getting calls on attacks to the rim.”
     
    and

    “Going to the rim means a higher percentage of makes and a greater rate
    of free throw attempts, so why is DeRozan shying away from them? It’s
    difficult to say, really.”

    Hmmmmmmm.

    He gets fouled but he never finishes in a contact situation, leaving a lot of his drive attempts as 50/50 calls for the refs. Some of them even end up as offensive fouls, so why would he keep attacking and rack up fouls that could keep him off the floor when they need him on there to recuperate that contract? Not to mention the potential injuries; only a few guys have the heart to mix it up amongst the trees. DD ain’t built like that.  All in all it;s a futile effort, even when he gets to the line at the desired rate of his backers, the Raptors rock a losing record.

    And although one could give some credence to teams focusing on him, his inability to adjust or still be effective, only speaks of his perceived “talent”.  Athleticism and potential (Raptors fans selling point) does not equate to talent in the L. That focus is also what sends him into midrange chuck mode; what your are watching is his “development” and “learning”, much to the delight of p00ka and the like.

    • FAQ

      HEY, FLUX… yer preempting everything I was gonna say about DD… only with fewer word….. sheeeeesh….!!!!

    • Alucart999

      “He gets fouled but he never finishes in a contact situation, leaving a lot of his drive attempts as 50/50 calls for the refs.”
      That’s the problem right there. DD has unfortunately gained a reputation as a bad finisher. And he’s a bad finisher because he lacks the explosion and/or craftiness that all great finishers in the league have.

      Refs often make calls based on what they thought should have happened vs. what actually happened. So if Kobe throws up a brick from 5 ft out, you can be pretty certain  something caused him to do that, i.e., some sort of contact or tip that made him brick it – so if they see someone in the vicinity, and the Ref thinks there may have been contact, they’re going to give Kobe the benefit of the doubt because he has proven he finishes more often than not. 

      The opposite holds true, however. If you’re consistently missing gimmes, then the Refs won’t think twice about not giving you the call when you throw up the brick and there is contact. It’s frustrating, but refs are human and use reputation as one of their tools in calling plays.

      • FLUXLAND

        Looks like someone has been watching the NBA for longer than the NHL lockout.

        Right on.. that’s what’s up.

  • Tee

    Vince went through this 
    then Bosh
    then Bargnani
    now Demar

    Dont you guys understand if you don’t pay players and show faith they’ll fucking leave?…Stop worrying about his contract in relation to his play.

     To say ” He’s not that good ” is pretty premature. Hes f**king 23!

     He’s also the team’s leading scorer btw.  

    He’s one of the best players on the team, and he’s slumping. 
    I will admit he lacks killer instinct but relax, a ten game slump?…C’mon man!

    Everyone has to admit: the raps are sharing the ball more as well. I trust he will figure it out.

     Chill

    • CalgaryRapsFan

      All this says is that the Raptors franchise continually tries to sell secondary players as superstar ‘face of the franchise’ type players to Raptors fans, who are all to eager to drink the kool-aid. Bosh, Bargnani and DeRozan are all #3 options at best, on a truly talented team.

      The Raptors need a significant influx of talent, plain and simple. DeRozan is destined to suffer the same fate as Bosh and Bargnani, by failing to live up to unfair expectations being forced onto them by team ownership/management.

      • Sig

         Wiggins is starting to look like the only solution for this shitshow we call a franchise.

      • Dan

         It’s not fair to put Bosh in the same category as Demar. Bosh as number one option was an all star and was able to lead a team to the playoffs. He was a much better player by his third year then Demar is now as a 4th year player. Bosh was the 4th pick in one of the best drafts. Demar was the 9th pick in an average draft.

    • Dan

       Vince carter averaged more points as a rookie then Demar has ever. His second year he was averaging 25 a game his third year 27. This is Demars 4th year. Bosh in his 3rd and 4th year was averaging 22 a game. Demar is not on the same level as those guys.
      Demar is Nick young but with less of a jump shot and handle
      Here is nick youngs stat line when he was given Demar treatment by washington.
      31.8
      0.441
      0.387
      0.816
      0.4
      2.3
      2.7
      1.2
      0.7
      0.3
      1.41
      2.25
      17.4

      Better numbers in 5 less minutes per game. Being a one player who is a volume scorer is best used as a becnh player and not your number one option

    • Roarque

       “Stop worrying about his contract in relation to his play.” 

      Exactly. To think that a pro is “trying harder” when he’s making $5 Mill instead of $3 Mill is naive. Just to stay in the rotation, everyone tries hard ALL the time or they get a kick in the ass from their friends on the team, then from their coach and then from their GM ( they get traded ). There are VERY few players in the NBA who can control their impact on a game so most give it on every play.

  • FAQ

    Actually, I’m perplexed!

    How is it that Bargs gets the Primo deal and Fields picks up some TO cougar in his PS Vita limousine (and all he does is play video games with her)???

    Why can’t Demar DeRozan get an endorsement deal too… maybe with RIM or even Fu Yao Supermarket in Scarborough…???

    • Nilanka15

      Proactive reached out to DeMar, but the ‘after’ shots looked exactly like the ‘before’ shots…

    • FLUXLAND

      That Fields commercial is awkward to say the least. 

      I also enjoy the Devlin Peak pitch: “Aaaand there’s Lowry tying his shoe” *camera zooms in on shoe*  Simply groundbreaking basketball insight and coverage.

      There’s no Rosco’s in TO so DD can’t get a deal he likes.

  • Roarque

    Good discussion for the most part.

    I think the idea that DDR is the prime offensive weapon on the Raps would draw the best defensive guard in key situations and based on his numbers before Christmas that’s what he was.

    The mental fatigue at not getting the calls is a realistic concern and one that many wings who use the paint must be feeling this year – the calls are definitely different this season and I have to believe that the change was strategic – the League wants foul shots reduced. Period. Tough to head into the paint just to get mugged and find yourself lying on the hardwood while the play is heading away from you. I’d get discouraged and need a little head shrinkage.

    As to reading RR, hell I’m home all day and I don’t even read every post on RR so what makes you think DDR would? I’m certain Dwane coaches them regularly to ignor the media – especially the uninformed social media ( that’s us guys ).