Jason Kapono, Maceo Baston, that unheard of guy we got on draft night, that really unheard of guy we signed are all either small or negligible components of the Raptors’ winning puzzle. The man that can take us to the next level is Andrea Bargnani.
Bargnani is the X-Factor for the Raptors, not CB4. Chris Bosh will likely have a season comparable to the last one and his production can be estimated with a fair amount of accuracy. But it’s Bargnani that can change the dynamics of this team, if he excels offensively and improves on the defensive end, the Raptors can go from “let’s hope we can win a series” to “let’s get to the EC finals”.
NBA offenses are based on mismatches and God bless Bargnani because he provides one for us every time he’s on the floor, last year he took fair advantage of centers who choose to lay off him by hitting the three, but then again he also passed up 80% of opportunities where he could’ve posted up a smaller guy and made him regret his height. It’s purely this fact and this fact alone that can elevate us from wannabe contender to a team that isn’t written off automatically come playoff time.
Even though he was a rookie, Bargnani was still our most under-utilized weapon. Nobody’s asking him to become Nowitzki overnight but it’s fair to expect him to do the right thing when he’s on the court: use his height in the post, use his frame to collect defensive rebounds, hit the outside shot and most of all do not let defenses off the hook by going away from your strengths and their weaknesses. It comes down to how well Mitchell can recognize potentially advantageous situations for Bargnani and run plays that will allow him to use his tools effectively for the greater good. I know that’s asking a lot.
The goal for Bargnani should be to attract a double team by December, if you see that happening you know he’s being a pain in the ass for teams. Imagine if Bargs attracts two people, that leaves us playing 4 on 3 with one of the 4 being CB4. Now that’s an attractive situation. Aside from Bargs, I don’t see anyone on the Raptors remotely bothering the defense to double team in the post which is where most opportunities originate.Up until last year it was Bosh that had the highest ceiling of any player on the Raps but that doesn’t hold true anymore. Last year we were able to gauge what Bosh’s true potential might be, and although there’s no doubt that he has a chance to be a truly great player when it’s all said and done, it’s Bargnani that can be even better (it’s true, look it up). Here’s a general prediction of what will happen next year with the rest of the team.
TJ Ford: He’ll have a similar season as last. Maybe he’ll improve his shooting a little but nothing that’ll make him a perimeter threat. Should he manage to get himself under control (which is like asking the Road Runner to slow down), we’ll be in better shape but we all know TJ is TJ and will play like TJ until the day he retires.
Jose Calderon: Defenses will adapt to him and he won’t find it that easy to just come off a screen and lay the ball in. If he has a repeat of last year it’ll be a big bonus for the Raps. You have to be delusional not to see that. The best he could do is improve his shot, just like TJ.
Chris Bosh: Hmm. Can he repeat last season? For sure. Can he do even better? Probably. Will he dominate games ala Duncan or even KG? No, he’s not there yet and there’s even a chance that he might never be. It’s time everybody recognizes that CB4 is a very good player with a chance to be a star, he isn’t there yet and relying on him to improve dramatically and start taking over games and playoff series consistently is really, really unrealistic. He’ll be more productive next year just based on experience and more strength (assuming he’s close to a gym in the summer) but he isn’t going to increase his PPG by 10 points or his RPG by 5. Those transformations are reserved for two types of players: 1) those who finally started to get some serious playing time after being buried on the bench and 2) Superman.
Jason Kapono/Mo Pete: If Jason Kapono is a 10, Mo Pete is at least a 7. I’m aggregating defense, rebounding and shooting into one and saying that if Kapono excels in shooting, Mo Pete beats him in defense/rebounding. So although we added a great shooter, we also lost a pretty decent player who was in the doghouse for the better part of the year. I’m for the Kapono move (less money and 3 yr deal would’ve been nicer) but losing Mo Pete will have an effect unless Joey Graham steps it up a a few notches, which I think is hoping too much given his tendency to lapse into paralysis in the middle of a possession.
Anthony Parker/Jorge Garbajosa: How much do you think a 31+ player can improve after playing one year in the NBA? Parker is Mr. Consistent and he’ll be just that; unless Sam Mitchell had some visions where he was shown how to run a plays which open up AP for jumpers from the elbows, he’ll still be planted at the three point line waiting for a kick-out. Garbajosa’s offensive potential is limited and I don’t see him NOT going through a couple 15 game stretches where he can’t hit a 15 footer. His offense might be sporadic but his defense will always be there.
Given the general disposition of the above cases to hold true, it leaves the Raptors with one man who can realistically improve in such a way that for every degree he improves, the Raptors improve ten.
