It was just 12 months ago that the Indiana Pacers were one of the darlings of the NBA, starting the season with nine straight wins and an incredible record of 18-2. Riding the wave create by their elite defense, along with the emergence of Paul George as a legitimate superstar, the Pacers maintained their fast start and finished the regular season atop the Eastern Conference.
The season wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows in Indiana though. The Pacers faded towards the end of the season, seeing them win just 12 of their last 25 games before rebounding during the playoffs on their way to the Eastern Conference finals.
Unfortunately for the Pacers, the offseason couldn’t have gone worse for the franchise. Paul George destroyed his knee during Team USA training camp (still can’t bring myself to watch the footage), and Lance Stephenson departed to the Charlotte Bobcats Hornets. The absence of these two not only left Indiana without their starting wing pairing, but left the Pacers without 35.5 percent of their scoring, a stat that they were already seventh worst at last year.
Couple this with the absence of George Hill so far this season due to knee and quad injuries (another 9.8 percent of their team scoring), the Pacers are without three of their top five scorers from last year.
These three also accounted for 54.9 percent of their assists, 43.9 percent of their free throw attempts, 65 percent of their three point attempts, and 37.7 percent of the team rebounds…leaving the Pacers a shell of their former selves.
Roy Hibbert and David West are now the only carryovers from last year’s starting line-up, which has lead the Pacers to a record of 7-and-15 (.318 winning percentage), good for the eighth worst record at this point in the season. In fact, if the Pacers maintain their current winning percentage, it will be their worst season since 1985-86.
Positional Breakdown:
PG: Kyle Lowry, Greivis Vasquez – Rodney Stuckey, Donald Sloan
Sloan and Stuckey have been a surprisingly effective PG combination, albeit still a limited. Sloan has averaged 10.7 points, 4 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, all of which are career highs, but if recent games are any indicated, Stuckey will likely see the majority of the team’s minutes.
But let’s face it, neither of them are anywhere close to a match for Lowry…or Vasquez for that matter. Vasquez would also immediately step into the starting line-up for the Pacers.
Edge: Toronto Raptors…and it’s not even close.
SG: Terrence Ross, Lou Williams – Solomon Hill, CJ Miles
Trick or Treat Terrence should, in theory, be the best wing player on the floor tonight, with Williams being the icing on the cake. Hill has a Player Efficiency Rating of just 10.6 (league average is considered to be roughly 15), while Miles has a team low PER of 6.6.
Edge: Toronto
SF: Landry Fields, James Johnson – Chris Copeland
I’m guessing here that Landry will see his second consecutive start. Casey spoke of his desire to keep the bench unit together, leaving Fields in the starting unit instead of buried deep on the bench.
Copeland takes a team high 5.6 shots from deep for the Pacers, and hits them at a rate of 34.1 percent. He presents as interesting of a wing challenge that Indiana can currently provide..which just makes me sad to think about.
Edge: Once again…Toronto
PF: Amir Johnson, Patrick Patterson – David West, Luis Scola
Here is where things finally get interesting…The Assassin, David West. The man has a way of destroying the Raptors. If he only played against Toronto, the man could be an All-Star.
In an ideal world, West fits the mold of a highly skilled big man, and a fantastic team glue-guy. The issue is that he is currently being asked to be the team’s main offensive threat with a team high 12.9 field goal attempts per game. He is shooting a mere 41.1 percent, while scoring 11.6 points per game, both of which are his worst numbers since 2004-05.
But despite his rough start to the season…David West terrifies me.
Edge: Slight edge for Toronto due to depth, but it wouldn’t shock me to see Amir outplayed by West.
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Chuck Hayes – Roy Hibbert, Ian Mahinmi
And now we have Hibbert vs. Valanciunas.
Hibbert was viewed as one of the key reasons for the Pacers slide at the end of last season, but has come back strong to start the season. He remains a weak rebounder for his size, but one of the top paint protectors. Opponents attempt 5 shots per game within six feet of the rim when guarded by Hibbert, where they shoot 12.1 percent worse than their season averages. This doesn’t even count the number of shots that Hibbert deters from even being taken.
Despite Hibbert’s greater experience and strength, the two have played one another remarkably close throughout their head-to-head match-ups. In fact, Valanciunas dominated their most recent match-up. Valanciunas finished with 22 points and 9 rebounds while shooting 71.4 percent, and held Hibbert to 12 points, 2 rebounds, and 38.5 percent shooting.
Edge: Likely Pacers…but could easily flip.
Two Keys to Victory:
1) Win the Rebounding Battle
Toronto lost last game due to poor rebounding. Late in the fourth quarter, Cleveland got an extra three possessions due to Toronto’s inability to secure a defensive rebound…and Indiana is especially dangerous in this regard, as the Pacers are the second best rebounding team with 45.8 per game.
2) Attack the Front Court
The Pacers are carried by West and Hibbert, Jonas and Amir will need to be at their best.
Prediction: Raptors by 11…and a minimum of 7 times I swear at David West through my TV.
