Our diminutive point guard is going all out to keep the offense afloat.
It’s no surprise, but the Toronto Raptors have failed to sustain their dominance in DeMar DeRozan’s absence.
In the six games since DeRozan tore his adductor longus, the Raptors are 3-3, dropping an easy win Los Angeles and two hard-fought contests against the Cavaliers, while capturing victories over Denver, Utah and Sacramento.
Treading water at 3-3 isn’t necessarily poor play. Losing to the red-hot Cavaliers is more than understandable if not expected.
But there are cracks in the Raptors’ armour if you care to look closely. The obvious windfall has come on defense, where the normally stout Raptors defense has coughed up an abysmal 114 points per 100 possessions. DeRozan’s absence forced fill-ins like Greivis Vasquez, Landry Fields and to a lesser extent, Terrence Ross, to step into larger unfamiliar roles. Early returns include missed rotations and shoddy help defense.
Luckily, the Raptors still have Kyle Lowry, who is masking the team’s flaws by keeping the offense afloat. Lowry has the Raptors’ humming to the tune of 114.4 points per 100 possessions in six games without DeRozan, good for second-best in the NBA. Much of that is attributable to Lowry’s individual brilliance, as his numbers are virtually up across the board.
Lowry’s efforts have not gone unnoticed, garnering a player of the week nod from the league. He was already enjoying a hot start to the season, but Lowry has somehow managed to take his game to yet another level. He’s shouldering a greater role of the offense, logging more minutes, handling the ball more, distributing more, and most importantly, scoring more.
However, the Lowry’s scoring has also been affected by DeRozan’s absence — yet another crack in the armour. Lowry’s shooting profile is as shown below. Graphed on the y-axis is the change in Lowry’s shooting percentage. The x-axis shows Lowry’s change in use of each type of shot.
The most obvious takeaway from the chart above is the serious dip in Lowry’s shooting percentages in the restricted area and in the paint. Lowry is shooting 10.9 percentage points worse in the restricted area, and 16.6 percent worse in the paint. The data suggests that Lowry is driving more, but failing to replicate his normal levels of production on said drives.
The change is corroborated by the eye test, as well. Anyone familiar with Lowry’s M.O. understands that Lowry is never afraid to throw his weight around in the paint, but Lowry has been nothing short of relentless of late, attacking the paint without recourse for himself or any hapless defenders who happen to be in his way.
Normally, the Raptors run a pet play for Lowry, which involves him catching a kickout before attacking off a high screen. In the play below, DeRozan initiates the action, before swinging the ball back to Lowry, who immediately attacks the Heat defense. This play is effective for many reasons, but chiefly, it affords Lowry the aid of a screen, and Lowry’s quickness off the dribble allows him to attack before the defense has a chance of resetting.
However, without the threat of DeRozan scoring off a drive, Lowry’s pet play simply isn’t as effective. Notice that the play above is made possible by DeRozan’s drive towards the middle, which draws the dutiful attention of Chris Bosh to the strong side. By quickly resetting the play and having Lowry attack from the weak side, Bosh is now out of position, and can’t get up to block Lowry’s shot.
However, players like Vasquez or Williams fail to replicate DeRozan’s gravitational effect on opposing defenses, as shown on the play below. Notice how Williams’ drive causes absolutely no shifting in the Kings’ defense, and that Lowry is contained after trying to attack from the weak side.
This type of loss is to be expected. Lesser players like Williams and Vasquez simply cannot be counted upon to draw the same type of attention as DeRozan does. However, without enough time to design and practice new schemes, the Raptors and Lowry are stuck plowing onwards with a less effective, but familiar, play.
The problem is that defenses are smart, and Lowry’s tendencies have been thoroughly scouted by opposing teams, which is why they’re overloading their defenses. That’s leading to sub-optimal outcomes for Lowry, who remains insistent on running the same action, even though they are producing a lesser effect.
On the play below, Lowry attacks out off a high screen, but is tracked step for step by Tristan Thompson. With no real option but to reset, Lowry attempts a 15-foot push shot over Thompson’s well-timed contest. Lowry rarely takes ill-advised shots like these when the Raptors are at full strength, but right now, slim pickings are all Lowry can afford.
Similarly, Lowry is also starting to stop short of the basket in favor of launching shots from the elbows when defenses sag aggressively in hopes of defending the drive. On the play below, Lowry, works his way into a semi-contested pull-up after both Carlos Boozer and Jordan Hill formed a wall in the paint.
The play above also shows yet another trick-down effect of DeRozan’s absence. Teams have been afforded the opportunity to shift their best perimeter defenders a notch down to check Lowry, instead of wasting away on the relatively benign trio of Ross, Vasquez and Williams. The Lakers pinned Wes Johnson on Lowry, yielding great effect as Lowry’s diminutive size is easy to exploit.
Shifting better defenders on Lowry is proving to affect more than just Lowry’s drives. This season, Lowry has made a habit of camping out in the paint a few times per game. Normally, Lowry is able to physically overwhelm lightweight point guards. On the play below, Lowry backs poor Norris Cole deep into the paint, before floating a teardrop right over a nearly flightless Birdman.
The success of Lowry’s post ups is contingent on his ability to establish deep post position, something that simply isn’t possible against bigger wings. On the play below, Lowry is unable to move Ben McLemore, and is forced to settle for a contested fadeaway.
These struggles have all come to a head during crunch time, where Lowry has been downright miserable over the last six games. With the Raptors leading or trailing by five or less points with less than five minutes to go, Lowry is shooting just 34.3 percent from the field, including just 29.4 percent from deep.
Some of it is just poor decision making. With the Raptors sliding into an all-out meltdown against the Cavaliers on Tuesday, Lowry made a series of questionable decisions, including launching an airball over Tristan Thompson, and needlessly fouling James Jones, which effectively sealed the come-from-behind victory for LeBron’s squad.
Other times, it’s Lowry’s sheer insistence to make plays happen when the defense is fully prepared to stop him. On the clip below, Lowry tries like all hell to break the Raptors’ out of their scoring drought in overtime. Knowing full well that Lowry wants to drive, Kobe wisely funnels Lowry baseline into a help defender in Jordan Hill. Undeterred, Lowry spins and tries to beat Hill with quickness and guile, but Hill’s enormous size advantage easily tops Lowry’s best effort.
Of course, this is all to be expected. For those who thought that DeRozan’s absence would be easy to fill, the results have proven otherwise. If not for Lowry’s stellar output, the Raptors might very have slipped from their position atop the East.
However, DeRozan’s absence has even trickled down to affect Lowry in subtle, but important ways. In needing to fill in for DeRozan’s considerable output, Lowry can no longer afford to sit back and cherry pick the drives and shots that normally suffice. Instead, Lowry is having to compensate, and is at times failing to come through. Perhaps with more practice time and on-court tribulations, Lowry and the Raptors can learn to adapt. They’ll just have to settle in the meantime.
On a closing note, the takeaway shouldn’t be that Lowry’s refusing to pass or stubbornly playing hero ball. He’s veered in that direction and it has occasionally led him astray, but it’s a simply a bad situation. Lowry, Dwane Casey, the rest of the team — no one is particularly at fault. We’re just seeing the trickle-down effect of DeRozan’s absence. It will take time, and in due time, number 10 will be back on the court, putting everything back into balance.
But in the meantime, it’s up to Lowry and the team to keep trying to adapt, while Mary J. Blige whispers sweet nothings into the haunting void of DeRozan’s departure. I’m bad at writing conclusions.
