The Raptors are weathering Vasquez’s slow start, but they’re running a major risk in the process.
It’s tough to critique the Raptors with a straight face. There are cracks in their armour, but fixating on the trees can lead one to lose sight of the magical forest that is the Raptors’ 19-6 record.
That being said, the Raptors have netted disappointing returns from backup point guard Greivis Vasquez, whose public standing has taken quite a hit this season.
Problem: Vasquez is struggling
Let’s contextualize Vasquez’s importance to the team. It seems like forever ago, but it was Vasquez who stepped up in a big way during last year’s playoff series loss to the Brooklyn Nets. His emergence allowed the Raptors to counter the Nets’ heavy ball-pressure, which flummoxed the Raptors’ top scorers in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Vasquez’s boxscore line of 10.1 points, 5.1 assists and 3.1 rebounds only scratches the surface of his importance.
Vasquez’s postseason play, along with his excellence in sharing the backcourt with Lowry, were the two major factors in the Raptors’ decision to re-sign Vasquez this summer to a 2-year, $13-million deal. It seemed pricey at the time, but with the Raptors banking on continuity and culture, keeping a vocal leader like Vasquez around during his prime seemed like a good idea.
Unfortunately, Vasquez has not gotten off to a good start this season. There are plausible reasons for Vasquez’s struggles — which will be addressed later on — but there’s no escaping his line of 8.8 points, 2.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game, while somehow regressing on defense, which never topped passable to begin with. His PER sits below average for the first time since his rookie season, and Vasquez has looked noticeably distraught at times — in stark contrast to his usual gregarious swagger.
Symptom: Failures in offensive schemes
Let’s start on the offensive end. Vasquez developed a reputation for being a pass-first point guard by leading the league in total assists as a member of the New Orleans Hornets in 2012-13. That season, Vasquez was a pick-and-roll maestro, playing within a point guard-oriented offense that employed a cadre of clever bigs that helped leverage Vasquez’s vision.
But pass-first doesn’t necessarily translate to results, which is evident by Vasquez’s tenure here in Toronto. Vasquez is a willing passer, coughing up the rock on 73.1 percent of his touches as compared to 71.7 percent for Lowry, but Vasquez’s passes often lead nowhere. In terms of assist opportunities, where a player actually shoots following a pass received, only 15 percent of Vasquez’s passes directly lead to attempts, whereas Lowry clocks in at 21.6 percent.
Of course, this could point to a mismatch of Vasquez’s skills and that of his teammates. The roster isn’t exactly stocked with pick-and-roll bigs, especially in the second unit. But regardless of how you spin it, Vasquez hasn’t been very productive with his playmaking.
However, for one reason or another, Vasquez has also been terrible when he shoots the ball, as well. Vasquez’s true-shooting percentage ranks just above Chuck Hayes and Bebe Nogueira (who has played two games) at 46.6. His three-point percentage is down almost nine percentage points, and he’s shooting just 38.8 percent overall. The lack of effectiveness on Vasquez’s three-pointer has even led him to swap threes for long twos, which is almost never a good trade.
Unfortunately, Vasquez isn’t even adding much to the motion of the offense with penetration or cutting. He’s never been a particularly proficient finisher around the basket, but even his ability to attack the basket is crucial to the Raptors’ schemes. The majority of the Raptors’ sets come out of HORNs action, with two bigs constantly setting ball-screens or operating through dribble-handoffs to make way for guards to penetrate the paint. When one side of the offense fails, the ball is quickly reset to the weak side, where the same gears grind. Vasquez has struggled in that regard, especially since his three-point shot doesn’t afford him nearly the same space he once had to operate. The net result has been stagnant sets, especially in the second unit.
And this entire section isn’t complete without the biggest crux of Vasquez’s game, that being his highly questionable decision-making. Vasquez covets transition threes and is known to toss questionable passes. I didn’t dub him with the nickname of “YOLO” without a reason. There’s a fine line to toe for gamblers like Vasquez. It can get you rich, but the consequent is that you could also end up broke.
Symptom: Pathetic defensive effort
Vasquez has exactly one thing going for him on defense: he’s tall for a point guard, standing at 6-foot-6. That’s it. He’s extremely slow, doesn’t have much by way of quickness and is quite frankly lazy at times. On the play below, Vasquez is somehow behind his man for the entire trip down the floor. That is defensive negligence at its finest.
Physical disadvantages in part accounts for Vasquez’s struggles in containing penetration, but the problem is worsened by Vasquez’s lack of defensive awareness. Vasquez often makes confusing choices in help defense scenarios. Going back to the same game, Vasquez curiously leaves his man to commit on help on a relatively benign threat in Kyle O’Quinn, who is well-covered by an attentive Patrick Patterson. The consequence of Vasquez’s silly rotation caused him to need to leave his feet on a closeout, which ultimately netted Orlando with an open look.
Possible causes: Shooting slump, poor health, Lou Williams
The head scratching thing about Vasquez’s play is that the process of his actions isn’t substantially different from a season ago. He’s the same player in the same system with almost the same teammates, so it’s weird that he’s suddenly much less effective at just about every facet. The global context of his struggles points to a global problem.
Three explanations come to mind. The first is simple — perhaps Vasquez is just in a shooting slump. The season is only 24 games old, and while that almost nears a third of the schedule, but that doesn’t even span two months. His form doesn’t look appreciably different, and the context of his attempts appear unchanged. Sometimes randomness just happens. It’s a meaningless exercise, but if just nine of Vasquez’s missed triples this season turned to makes, he’d match last season’s shooting performance. It’s not a particularly substantiated explanation, but it’s a possible one.
Ill health could also be playing a factor. There were reports of Vasquez suffering from the effects of the flu last week, which could help explain his recent stinkers. Over the last six games, Vasquez is shooting 13.6 percent from deep, while potting only 5.3 points per game. He hasn’t looked energetic of late, and it’s possible that a pesky illness has limited Vasquez’s performance. Take out those six games, and Vasquez’s line looks like his performance from 2013-14.
Finally, many have pointed to Williams as a potential problem. The theory goes that Williams is a ball-hog, and that he doesn’t pass, which stunts Vasquez’s play. While it’s true that Williams doesn’t pass (43 percent of Williams’ touches end with him), he’s also rarely on the ball for prolonged stretches, as he only receives 36.5 touches per game, as compared to 50.5 per game for Vasquez, which isn’t all that far from Vasquez’s 58.6 touches per game from a season ago. If anything, the substitution of Williams for John Salmons should in theory translate to more floor spacing for Vasquez to operate.
Ultimately, Vasquez’s struggles offensively is probably best explained by all of the above. As for the defense, there really isn’t any excuse. Even ancient Andre Miller has managed to blow by Vasquez this season.
Consequence: Overworking Lowry
Despite Vasquez’s struggles, the team has managed to stay successful. There formula is winning for now, and should Vasquez bounce back, the team only stands to improve.
However, the pyrite lining of the Raptors’ sustained success has been the increased workload for Kyle Lowry, who is nearing the point of exhaustion, especially in the wake of DeMar DeRozan’s injury. Lowry’s minutes, usage and importance has skyrocketed since DeRozan went out. Lowry has been relatively successful during the interim, but he clearly feels the burden of taking on a larger share of responsibilities.
More Lowry has come with diminishing returns, as I touched on in a post last week, but he’s still the best option for the Raptors in the short term. But every relentless drive is another roll of the dice, increasing the chances of Lowry landing on some giant’s ankles, catching a flying elbow, taking a spill — whatever it may be. Lowry is the type to push himself relentlessly, but what if he goes too far? The team has weathered an injury to DeRozan thus far. Lowry going down would be a different story.
Ideally, Vasquez could take on some of the burden off Lowry’s shoulders. He was pegged as the fill-in wing in the starting lineup, but his horrendous defensive showing outweighed whatever offensive contributions he provided. His struggles intensified to the point where Landry Fields was forced into starting instead. The switch has steadied the starting unit’s defense, and provided us with a kind reminder that Fields can indeed ball when given the chance.
But the switch polarized the Raptors’ offense, pilling even more work onto Lowry’s plate. He’s now basically the only consistent ball-handling threat in the starting unit, as Fields is best used off-ball, and Ross seems terrified of potentially drawing contact on a drive to the hoop (though he’s shown occasional flashes). That leaves Lowry with the onus of driving to shift defenses, which is all-too-easy with three non-shooting threats on the floor at once.
For now, the Raptors are making it work, as they are currently on pace for a 62-win season. The team is something like a supertanker, built to withstand minor losses thanks to its tremendous depth. But leaks are starting to show, and high time for Vasquez to step up and turn his wayward season around. The team will need all hands on deck, including last year’s unlikely hero, for the playoffs.
