Pity the Pistons: through a third of their season, they sit at 5-21 with the fourth worst margin of victory, a 13-game losing streak under their belt and are generally not fun to watch.
Yet, they pose a real threat to the Raptors. No, my wariness is not a reaction to my hilariously wrong prediction that the Raptors would beat the Knicks by 23. The Pistons crash the offensive glass and Toronto has been loose on that end.
Detroit’s dedication to o-boards is no surprise. Their offence is bad — 29th in the league, per 100 possessions — partially because they are remodeling Andre Drummond into a Dwight Howard-esque player. When you can’t make shots, you need to create extra possessions to salvage your trips down the floor. That strategy becomes simpler when you have Drummond, already one of the best rebounders in the league by OREB%. The third-year UConn product is third in that category this season and finished first in 2013-14. Greg Monroe, who took a qualifying offer this offseason after failed negotiations, is no stranger to offensive rebounds either. Before Drummond’s arrival in the Motor City, Monroe was among the top-six in the NBA by OREB%.
Monroe is the centerpiece of the offence, despite the attempts to make Drummond a legit post threat. He takes 11.5 field goals a game, second on the team behind Josh Smith’s 14 attempts (on 39% shooting! I love Josh Smith). Monroe likes to shoot from close to the basket, but he will step out for mid-range stuff. He’s not particularly good at it — 31% from 3-10 feet and 37% from 10-16 feet — but isn’t afraid to pull the trigger if left slightly open.
Containing the Drummond-Monroe duo, while being wary of Josh Smith propensity for flying in from the perimeter, has to be the first, second and third priority. Jodie Meeks’s return from injury has helped Detroit’s spacing, but they still lack good decision-making from the ball-handlers and that limits their ceiling offensively. Should the Raptors box out and end possessions quickly, that puts pressure on the Pistons middling defence to stop a red-hot offence.
I think the defence, or lack thereof, is the most disappointing part of the 2014-15 Detroit campaign. They have some capable guys; Andre Drummond is athletic and gets a ton of blocks, Josh Smith is still bothersome to attacking wing players and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is already respected as a capable NBA defender. Those players probably get too much credit, and there are other liabilities on the roster. Through 26 games, the Pistons own a 107.4 defensive rating, 20th in the NBA and the problems start with perimeter defence.
Players shoot 5.2% better when guarded by Brandon Jennings. When Jennings’s check gets to the rim, they shoot 72% — nearly 15% better than the average. It’s the same mark when players shoot from less than six feet on KCP. His defence is slightly better than Jennings and KCP is a good three-point defender, but its not as high as originally projected.
Drummond rim protection has progressed nicely: in 2013-14 opponents shot 53% at the rim and this year they are shooting 48%. He continues to be foul-prone though, averaging 4.3 fouls per 36, up from 3.8 in 2013-14.
The weakest area of defence is three point defence. Teams shooting 37.5% against the Pistons — the 6th highest mark in the league. In the new three-heavy NBA, that’s a recipe for disaster. The perimeter players mentioned above – KCP and Jennings – both allow opponents to shooting a higher average.
We know that the Pistons are trying to be bad, but surely not to this level of ineptitude. Toronto should be able to handle them, but that requires the frontcourt to be stout on the glass. As we’ve learned, that’s anything but a given.
Positional breakdown
Point Guard: Kyle Lowry, Greivis Vasquez vs. Brandon Jennings, D.J. Augustin
Lowry and Vasquez should go right at this point guard duo. Jennings could turtle if Lowry plays him in the post, given his diminutive shape and we know Vasquez isn’t gunshy.
Defensively, you want to encourage Jennings to shoot. At 36.8% on the year, you can let him shoot away and attempt to single-handedly beat you. Augustin isn’t a great shooter either and uses a similar amount of possessions (21% to Jennings 22%). Let those guys fire with reckless abandon, trust the bigs to clean up their misses.
Advantage: Raptors
Shooting guard: Landry Fields, Lou Williams vs. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jodie Meeks
In KCP, you have a player who represents the point of diminishing returns with usage percentage. He was tasked with a lot of shots to start the season, a decision that would prove suboptimal. Fields will need to make smart decisions when stunting at posting big men because Caldwell-Pope isn’t afraid to shoot on kick-outs. Given his recent form, this is actually an exciting match-up to watch because Fields could really frustrate KCP.
The bench match-up is worrisome. Meeks is a good shooter with a quick trigger, and Williams may be tasked with chasing the journeyman through screens. Not saying that Williams can’t do that, I just think his energy is more effectively spent on the offensive end.
Advantage: Raptors
Small forward: Terrence Ross, James Johnson vs. Josh Smith, Kyle Singler
Terrence Ross could have a good game here. The Pistons give up the highest percentage on corner threes in the league, and Ross is no stranger to shots from that position. You would hope he drives some more against a weaker squad, but don’t hold your breath. I looked up his drive per game numbers and it was worse than I thought: Ross drives 1.7 times per game, numbers comparable to Matt Bonner, Jason Terry and Richard Jefferson.
Smith is still a good one-on-one defender, so this offers Ross the opportunity to cut his teeth against real talent. Maybe he gets up for the notable name lining across from him and elevates his game a bit?
Johnson should bully Singler. JJ has shown himself to be a nice post-up option for the Raptors with solid footwork. Singler is not a slouch defensively, but there’s a size mismatch here.
In years past, Smith’s presence makes this an easy advantage for the Pistons. Now, his decision-making paired with the lack of spacing on offence has limited his influence on the game. The only thing that gives Detroit the advantage is that we don’t really know what Ross will provide. Let’s be clear, I’m not saying that Good Ross is on an equal level as Josh Smith. The difference is largely made up on the bench.
Advantage: Pistons
Power forward: Amir Johnson, Patrick Patterson vs. Greg Monroe, Jonas Jerebko
Amir has looked good recently and while his box scores aren’t eye-popping, he’s cemented his spot as the best defender in the starting five.
Amir Johnson has been rounding into glue-guy form. Raps DRTG with him is 102.6, far lower than other 3 non-DeMar starters.
— Eric Koreen (@ekoreen) December 18, 2014
He’ll have his hands full with Monroe, an above-average scorer and one of the initiators of the offence. More importantly, the Raptors need his rebounding to contain the frontcourt.
Patterson should continue his excellent run of play regardless of who is guarding him. Monroe and Jerebko top out at as average defenders. 2Pat has buoyed the Raptors second unit and his play has been one of the (many) entertaining things to watch this season.
Advantage: Raptors
Centre: Jonas Valanciunas, Tyler Hansbrough vs. Andre Drummond, Joel Anthony (Monroe plays here often too)
This one is tougher than I expected, and I’m going to cop out and say this is a tie.
Drummond has regressed a bit. His shooting percentage is down to 48%, he is still a liability at the free throw line and the rim protection is overstated. Meanwhile, JV is progressing, showing signs of development, and is generally filling the need.
Now, that isn’t to say the pair are trending in different directions. Drummond is being asked to do a lot more in the offence; a new version of Dwight Howard. Jonas gets a few touches, but you don’t necessarily need a good game from him for the Raptors to squeak out a win.
If you replace Drummond with JV in Detroit, what happens? Do things drastically change? I think it is really close and a negligible difference, if any.
Hansbrough should see some extended run in this game, given his dedication to rebounding and for fouls on Drummond. Anthony only plays about seven minutes a game but the Pistons have been blown out so many times, those are inflated. Monroe is more likely to see minutes at the five when Drummond is out.
Advantage: Neutral
This should be a good one. The Raptors could get exposed on the defensive glass and cause them to spend some serious time evaluating what changes need to be made. Or, they handle the rebounding issue and show another positive step in a young season.
The betting line: Raptors +7.5. I’d take it, but wouldn’t be my most confident gamble. I also semi-seriously said the Raptors would beat the Knicks by 23, so please do not trust my advice.
