Heading into this road trip I had a specific check list of what I hoped the Raptors would accomplish. Crush the Clippers, beat Golden State for a confidence boost and get one back for all the heart breaking last second losses we’ve suffered in Portland. This game also represented the match-up I was most eager to observe as a fan of the game.
Upon review there are key similarities between these two franchises:
- retained core youth starters
- duo leadership
- utilized free agency to add depth/fill specific needs
- have coach with specific area of expertise
- have a winning franchise who are often overlooked by the more established teams (or star studded) in the division
Both teams are on winning streaks and determined to make statements about their position. A Raptor loss would not diminish their wins versus the Clippers and Nuggets. However, a win would remove any remaining doubt from the pundits who continue to list Toronto behind Eastern teams who trail them. Portland is breathing down the Warriors necks a half game back.
Given how much I like Portland I’m forgoing much of my usual stats comparison to focus on the intriguing individual match-ups. I offer the following links for the stat junkies:
Positional Breakdown:
Guards: Lowry/Ross – Lillard/Matthews
I often think if Kyle Lowry had a younger brother it would be Damian Lillard. They both have that tough nosed attitude and neither are adverse to taking game altering shots. If there is a noticeable difference it would be Lowry tends to react to the ebbs and flows of a game better, knowing precisely when momentum is shifting and he responds according. Lillard, now in his third year has already developed a reputation for not only taking, but making the big shot.
Upon further examination of their stats I actually do start to wonder if I’m on to something regarding them being related. They are separated by a mere 1.3 ppg, 0.2 rpg, 1.4 apg and 0.13 in efficiency. As much as I enjoy a player who isn’t afraid of the big moments and can deliver I prefer a player who can react to nuances in-game because that type of player will avoid the necessity for needing the miracle shot. Lowry is the more complete player at this stage given his ability to defend and lead. His extra years in the league have afforded him maturity and knowledge both qualities Lillard will gain with experience.
The battle at shooting guard is intriguing with Wesley Matthews holding the advantage over Terrence Ross. If we were to earmark the type of player we want Ross to emulate there would be a concrete argument in selecting Matthews. He’s a solid two-way player with a very reliable 3-point shot and offensive versatility. I note the biggest difference between them isn’t in their physical game but in their demeanor. Ross tends to be more insular in his emotions whereas Matthews is overt in his passion. While Matthews’ passion is often the reason he is the x-factor it coincidentally can also be what adversely effects his performance.
I expected there to be more of a separation in the stat comparison between the two young shooting guards which may speak to Ross’ development. While we routinely pinpoint areas we pine for accelerated growth (offensive versatility/more drives to paint/defensive intensity) Ross is taking steps in the right direction. Since DeRozan went down with the injury 15-games ago, Ross has increased his use of drives per game. Albeit it may not meet with our desired rate of use, but as Ujiri pointed out patience is the key. He reminds me a colt when he attempts to drive, however the fact he’s increasing his game attempts is encouraging (repetition is the key). DeRozan’s game took a step late in his third season and I continue to have faith (perhaps blindly) so will Ross. I look for his “aha” moment sometime this season when he’ll organically weave driving the paint into his arsenal.
Slight Edge: Raptors- I’m betting on nuance winning out over high drama.
Front Court: J Johnsonn/A. Johnson/Valanciunas – Batum/Aldridge/Freeland
When Robin Lopez went down with a broken hand there was concern it could result in Portland losing a step. The fact Joel Freeland has capably filled in speaks to the increased depth of Portland especially considering the competition they faced. Looking at the minor slide of Golden State with the loss of Andrew Bogut this fact for me verifies the undeniable improvement of the Trailblazers. Last season their winning record was more a result of a strong starting line-up which coach Stotts played in excess. Like Toronto the consistency of performing as a unit is translating into victories.
LaMarcus Aldridge represents the other All-Star on Portland and is arguably the best power forward in the Association (no offense to rising super star Anthony Davis). There is a parallel to the Raptors pair of Lowry and DeRozan in Lillard and Aldridge. Each with a demonstrative leader and a less verbose, do it by example type.
Historically Aldridge has feasted on Toronto which began early in his career when he bested Chris Bosh more often than not. He’s missed three of the last four games with a respiratory infection notably sitting out against Houston, Philadelphia and Houston, but suited up for Oklahoma City. Since the Thunder are a division rival I’m wondering if Portland viewed that game as a must win which is why I’m curious to see if he is dressed today. It will send a message to us of how serious Portland views the Raptors given they don’t play again until January 3.
In truth, I’ve seen very little of Freeland though he seems to be a capable fill-in for Lopez with more outside range. I’m hoping someone whispers to Valanciunas that England is part of Europe and Freeland’s plan is to expose the holes in the young Lithuanian’s game. I jest, but I’m hoping for another inspired Valanciunas performance which are becoming more common than not of late.
Amir Johnson snared season high rebounds in the win over the Clippers once again solidifying for me that he knows (like Lowry) which specific games require a bit more from him regardless of his aches and injuries. If Aldridge does suit up fully recovered or not it poses a very difficult task for Johnson.
The most intriguing front court match-up for me is at small forward where James Johnson will face off against Nicolas Batum. Johnson continues to impress defensively, but his suddenly burgeoning offense has me sitting up and taking notice. There are several areas of Johnson’s game that have grown since his first sojourn with the Raptors: his passing ability, the euro step and drives to the paint and his decision making are all new facets I’m appreciating.
Casey may put Johnson on another defensive target, but Nicolas Batum in my opinion is the difference maker on the Trailblazers. Although Matthews can be the x-factor it is Batum who can solely decide a win or a loss based on his array of assets. He literally does everything well, but elects to play the role of filling whatever hole is needed on a per game basis. Some have said he could play with more intensity or push to be an All-Star. My personal opinion is he represents to Portland what Amir Johnson does for Toronto in that team is always first and foremost. If you don’t know much about him, do yourself a favor and isolate him for a couple plays today to see all the little things he does. Suffice to say I’m a big fan.
Edge: Portland – I believe Valanciunas will have the upper hand on Freeland, however I feel Aldridge at 80% plus Batum give Portland the edge (that’s how much I think of Batum!)
Bench: Vasquez/Williams/Patterson/Hansbrough/Hayes – Blake/Kaman/Robinson/Wright/McCollum/Crabbe
Portland bolstered their bench via Chris Kaman and Steve Blake which much like Lou Williams and James Johnson weren’t the media focus in off season signings but have translated into W’s in the win column.
I’m already running long or I’d go off on a Patrick Patterson tangent regarding his rapid and continued growth. I’d be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge his 3-point prowess, offensive upgrades, help defense improvements and vastly improved screens and rebound positioning. Do yourself a favor and isolate on him when watching games to see all the little things he’s doing, especially defensively.
Edge: Raptors – As much as Portland has improved their depth Toronto’s bench has reached elite status ranking 4th (Portland ranks 25th). Our bench could be the x-factor if Williams and cohorts have a good day at the office.
TTOTambz Tips:
- In the past 3 games Portland has scored 51 three pointers! (it has to be noted however 2 of their opponents were Philly and New York)
- In the last 10-games Toronto are a +70.3 points outside paint
- In past 10-games Portland ranks first in 3-point makes +11.4, Toronto (surprise) ranks fifth: +10.1 (our bench ranks 2nd)
- Aldridge joins LeBron James and James Harden as the only players who have earned the Player of the Week award twice this season
- Raptors boasts top offensive rank in NBA having overtaken Dallas
- Raptors rank first for point per game on road
- Segue: with Wizards 1-point victory over Houston (who were on a back to back) I wonder if they like Chicago and Atlanta will find themselves ranked above Toronto now that they are 3-6 versus plus-.500 teams
- Edited to add: GET YOUR DAILY ALL-STAR VOTES IN FOR KYLE LOWRY, DeMAR DeROZAN. We can take matters into our hands to ENSURE they make the team.
The Pick:
The entire time I’m writing this I’m thinking to myself who is going to win? Who has the edge? I want Toronto to win because we’ve lost those heart breakers in Portland, but who has the edge. I figure the odds makers will help my decision. Guess what? Even they can’t decide, the line is OFF!
So, I’ll go with my heart and say Raptors by ONE. (and just as I get ready to push the button I figure I’ll check one last time: line is Portland by 3.5)
Enjoy this one folks, meet us back here for the Quick React following the game and join the conversation.
