While it appears that the Raptors have been able to put their mid-season slump behind them, winning their last five after going 3-8 in their previous eleven games, you have to always look at context. Of the previous five opponents, not one is a playoff team (although the Nets might slip in because of the rule that says eight teams in the East must make the playoffs) and they have an average winning percentage of just .320. Over and 82 game season, that would be a 26 win team.
In other words, their last five opponents have been awful, and three of those games went down to the wire, including last night’s overtime win against the Nets.
Tonight is different. Tonight the Raptors will play a team that they’ve been compared to and been neck and neck with for most of the last two seasons. They even have two of the best young backcourts in the league.
In a lot of ways, the Washington Wizards have been the Raptors’ doppelganger since the Raptors came into the league, 20 years ago. Both Washington and Toronto have made the playoffs a grand total of six times each in 20 years, never making it past the second round (although the Wizards did make it to the second round twice, compared to once for the Raptors). Both teams have had 8 coaches during that span, including some decent ones that failed miserably at the time, and a couple that had no business coaching. Both teams had a multiple MVP winner and Hall of Famer play for them at the end of their career. And when both franchises were named their current name, they were immediately ridiculed.
While the Wizards and Raptors are currently fighting it out for second place in the Eastern Conference, with almost identical records, they both got here on very different paths. For the Wizards, that path began when they drafted John Wall with the number one pick in 2010.
Wall was a mercurial talent out of the University of Kentucky who looked like a can’t miss superstar and lasted only a year before declaring for the draft. Unfortunately, in the NBA Wall struggled partly due to injuries and partly due to not being able to harness the immense talents he possessed. For the first few years, watching Wall was an exercise in frustration, as he showed he could play only at breakneck speed, shot way too much, hit far too little and didn’t seem to have any clue of how to make his teammates better.
Just looking at his stats, Wall has seen a gradual improvement each year, but watching him told a different story. He’s playing with a maturity and poise he never did before. He still uses his blazing speed, but he’s learned to not use it all the time.
Of course, Wall was only the first piece of the puzzle. After stumbling in the next year’s draft (by drafting Jan Vesley over Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Vucevic and both of the Morris twins and then Chris Singleton over Tobias Harris, Kenneth Faried, Donatas Motiejunas, Nikola Mirotic and Jimmy Butler) the Wizards traded away walking-coach-killer and annual Shaqin a Fool MVP, JaVale McGee, for Nene, drafted Bradley Beal the year after, and then added veterans Marcin Gortat and then Paul Pierce.
The Wizards decided to speed up the process by surrounding Wall with veterans, which has given them the best winning percentage since the Bullets won the NBA title in 1978.
On the other hand, the Raptors have focused on building with youth and have mostly eschewed adding veterans to hurry up the development process.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH
How Will The Raptors Play Against A Good Team?
Beating the dregs of the NBA is one thing, but if the Raptors truly want to get back on track, they need to show they can also win against the better teams in the league. Washington is going to be a team the Raptors are going to be contending with for the rest of the season.
How Much Does Paul Pierce Have Left?
Pierce has a lot of history as a nemesis of the Raptors, so it’s fitting he’s now a Wizard. While he’s no longer the star he was when he was a Celtic, he’s still good enough to be a thorn in the Raptors’ side. Pierce was a low risk, high reward signing for the Wizards because of the veteran presence and winning background he brings to the Wizards.
Will The Raptors Be Able To Stop The Wizards’ Backcourt?
One of the biggest weaknesses the Raptors have is their inability to defend players like Wall and Beal. If the Raptors hope to continue to compete, and make any noise in the playoffs, they’ll have to defend better. Wall has the potential to wreak havoc on the Raptors.
BREAKDOWN
Starters
Both teams have similar talent at each starting position, but the Wizards have an edge with Pierce’s Championship pedigree and the Wizards ability to defend.
Edge: Wizards
Bench
Anytime your team has Kris Humphries playing 26 mpg, that’s an indication the bench could probably be better.
Edge: Raptors
Coaching
Can someone please explain to me why Randy Wittman still has a head coaching job? Anyone?
Edge: Raptors
PREDICTION
The Raptors beat the Wizards in Toronto at the beginning of the season, but things will probably be different this time around. The Raptors’ defense has fallen off a cliff and they haven’t been able to beat a playoff team since December (the Clippers on Dec. 27th). Their five game win streak hasn’t changed the fact their defense still needs a lot of work and their offense still relies too heavily on isos.
Score: Wizards 101 – Raptors 96
