Raptors head to Dallas following a stinker against New Orleans.
A discussion of this year’s Dallas Mavericks team has to begin with the Rajon Rondo trade.
It looked to be a major coup. Already armed with a historically productive offense, adding a passing wizard and an on-ball menace into the pot was thought to be the missing ingredient to the Mavericks’ championship formula.
But introducing Rondo has not spurred the Mavericks to take a giant step forward. Instead, the move has turned out to be something of a sidestep. The Mavericks’ offense has dropped almost 10 points in offensive rating while their defensive rating has decreased by 5 points. In short, Dallas has performed worse on offense, but have been stingier on defense. It was an outcome foreseen by a few clever analysts.
It’s important to not attribute the entirety of Dallas’s transformation to Rondo. For example, Dirk Nowitzki (for whatever reason) has been mired in a shooting slump over his last 12 games, averaging 14.3 points while connecting on just 31.3 percent of his 3-point attempts. Acquiring Rondo also came at the expense of two key rotational pieces in Jae Crowder and Brandan Wright which put a strain on Dallas’s depth.
Some of their struggles — especially offensively — does fall on Rondo’s shoulders. His aversion to shooting immediately comes to mind. Defenders are willing to go under to check Chandler, or flock to Dirk’s shot, when Rondo runs a screen-and-roll. Rondo has never been much of a shooter, but until his ACL injury, Rondo could (and would) attack the basket when defenses sagged off. Now, Rondo’s drives — like his jumpshot — is relatively benign, as he shoots 31 percent on free-throws and 42 percent between 0-3 feet of the basket. Rondo simply isn’t much of a threat to score which is a significant liability for a point guard.
To be fair, Rondo has made Dallas a better defensive squad and he’s still kept Dallas’s offense humming along at a decent rate. Rondo is a creative and daring facilitator that has found enough ways to make it work.
But as described by Hal Brown of Mavs Moneyball, the Mavericks just aren’t as fun to watch. Brown describes the Mavericks as laborious and skittish, as compared to the free-flowing, well-oiled machine that wowed the league prior to the trade.
Maybe it will all work out in the post-season. Rondo has a reputation for being able to rise to the occasion and he’ll need to against the murderous row of point guards that headline Western Conference playoff teams.
However, from a pure basketball standpoint, it’s a bit disappointing that Rondo on the Mavericks hasn’t turned out to be thrilling experience many thought it had the potential to become.
Positional Match-ups
Guards
Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Lou Williams, Greivis Vasquez vs. Rajon Rondo, Devin Harris, J.J. Barea, Monta Ellis
Dallas’s backcourt looks a lot like Toronto’s. Rondo is a tricky fit, Ellis is mired in a shooting slump (shooting 36 percent over his last nine games) and they have a pair of solid guards coming off the bench. Ellis is at his best playing a two-man game with either Tyson Chandler and Nowtzki, but he covets the high elbow pull-up jumpshot, especially when the defense takes away the paint. It’s a worthy trade-off that the Raptors should take. Harris is a solid two-way player who is money on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. Barea killed the Raptors earlier in December.
Advantage: Even
Wings
James Johnson, Terrence Ross vs. Al-Farouq Aminu, Richard Jefferson
The Raptors catch a bit of a break as Chandler Parsons is out with an ankle sprain. That opens up a match-up of wings that frequently spend stints as smallball power forwards. Aminu has played well of late, flourishing as a long-armed shutdown defender with an occasionally functional jumpshot. Jefferson is not as strong of a defender but a better shooter. James Johnson might struggle to drive against them as they can match Johnson’s size.
Advantage: Raptors
Bigs
Jonas Valanciunas, Amir Johnson, Tyler Hansbrough, Patrick Patterson (questionable; knee) vs. Tyson Chandler, Dirk Nowitzki, Amar’e Stoudemire, Charlie Villanueva
Dallas’s frontline is their strength. Chandler and Nowitzki form an ideal modern pairing with complementary skillsets. Chandler lures defenders to the hoop with his hard rolls to the basket, while Nowitzki pulls defenses out to the perimeter. Together, they stretch defenses apart, which helps open up the floor for their teammates. Given that Johnson’s wheels come and go and that the Raptors played last night, picking Dallas here is an easy call.
Advantage: Mavericks
Prediction
For some odd reason, I like the Raptors despite being it being a back-to-back. I’m hoping for a healthy Amir Johnson to handle Nowitzki and for Valanciunas to repeat his strong showing from Monday night.
Final: Raptors 105, Mavericks 102
