After battling through the first major injury of his six-year career, DeMar DeRozan is starting to round into form in March.
Like most observers, I drew very few takeaways from the Raptors-Knicks game. Sure, the Raptors laid the smackdown on the lowly Knicks, but is a win really a win when it comes against a team headed up by Andrea Bargnani and three 10-day contract players in the starting lineup? (Hint: there isn’t.)
But there was one instance in which that caught my eye.
In the first quarter, DeMar DeRozan attacked the basket off an excellent screen set by Amir Johnson. DeRozan was then met by Bargnani who cut off DeRozan’s entry into the lane, but DeRozan pivoted and elevated. In the air, another Knick defender – stumbling, bumbling Cole Aldrich – rotated over to help, but DeRozan was able to hang and spin a full rotation, before dishing it off to Jonas Valanciunas for an easy bucket.
The play caught my eye for two reasons.
First was an example of DeRozan’s improved playmaking, which has admittedly come and gone. But it was an example of DeRozan seeing multiple move in advance. DeRozan knew exactly what he was doing and smartly anticipated the defense’s reaction to create a look for Valanciunas.
Second, and perhaps more importantly, it showed that DeRozan was capable of generating lift, something that has been noticeably absent since DeRozan returned from a groin injury in mid-January. DeRozan went on to punch home a few highlight dunks just to punctuate the point.
DeRozan finished the game with a strong effort. He scored 23 points (8-15 shooting, 1-1 from deep, 6-6 on free-throws) with seven rebounds and five assists in 36 solid minutes of work.
Being the suspicious cynic that I am, I wondered if it were just an aberration. DeRozan was playing the Knicks, after all. But upon investigation, DeRozan has been rock-solid in 11 games in March, where he has averaged 24.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists in 37.6 minutes per game on a true-shooting percentage of 56.6. In other words, he’s been really solid. He looks a lot like he’s back to the All-Star form he showed last season.
There are caveats to be added, of course. Small sample size concerns certainly exist as it’s just 11 games. Also, using the start of March as a cut-off is rather convenient as there’s no strict reason as to why things should be significantly different with a flip of the calendar. Case in point: DeRozan shot 3-of-15 in a loss to the Knicks during the Raptors’ last game in February. Small sample size could certainly explain why DeRozan (who has historically shot poorly from deep) has connected on 50 percent of his 3-pointers.
But it’s also worth noting that DeRozan has managed his production against a few solid defensive squads. He hung 30 on the Hornets, a team he has historically struggled against. He also dropped 22 on the Trail Blazers and 21 on the Spurs and shot close to, or better than 50 percent. He’s also toed the line more than he did earlier this season, including double-digit outings against the Heat, Pacers, Timberwolves and Bulls.
A comparison of shot charts reveals slight changes in shot distribution. Generally speaking, DeRozan isn’t really shooting from different areas of the floor, save for a slight shift of midrange attempts shifting to looks at the rim. But what’s most promising, perhaps, is his improved shooting percentage at the basket, as it’s another sign of DeRozan returning to his level of production last season. He’s shooting 60.9 percent at the basket as compared to 57.1 percent last year.
Shooting Distribution
Shooting Performance
Nevertheless, whether DeRozan has finally rounded back into form, or if it’s just a spurt of hot shooting amid a terrible season, we’ll never know. Personally, I lean towards it being the former. It’s not made on any significant research or analysis (it’s 2 a.m. and I want to sleep), but DeRozan does look fully healthy again, which could certainly explain his turnaround.
Either way, it’s a promising sign. For better or worse, DeRozan is one of the pillars of the team and he’ll need to be at top form if the Raptors are to make any noise whatsoever in the post-season.
