After three years, you typically have a general idea of what direction an NBA player is headed. But as Jonas Valanciunas heads into his fourth year in the NBA, there are still questions yet to be answered. Here’s what we know: Valanciunas has improved year-to-year, but has yet to make that big leap. But this year – being a contract year – is a huge year. This is the year where Valanciunas will be evaluated with scrutiny, and only he can decide where his fate lies.
Sure, there are external factors at play. Dwane Casey doesn’t trust Valanciunas a whole lot. Interestingly enough, although Valanciunas’ PPG and FG% rose from his second to his third year, his mpg dropped. Ergo, although his usage has dropped, his efficiency has gone up. Makes sense. Lower field goal attempts usually means higher efficiency.
Although a starting center, Valanciunas now ranks 27th in the league among centers in USG % (usage percentage) at 17.3. Pretty much everyone – and their dogs – ranks higher than Valanciunas in this category, including Cole Aldrich, Jusuf Nurkic, Henry Sims, Alexis Ajinca, Kelly Olynyk, Chris Kaman, and, you guessed it, Andrea Bargnani.
Why?
You’d be hard-pressed to state that any of those aforementioned centers are better than Valanciunas, but somehow they are all heavily more involved in the offensive schemes of their respective teams.
Isn’t Valanciunas’ problem mostly on the defensive end though? If he’s solid offensively, why not go to him more in a season riddled with offensively inefficient nights from the swingmen? Surely his 57.2% field goal percentage (2nd in the NBA) should absorb more of the offensive flow.
There are three main problems with Valanciunas’ offensive game: Indecisiveness, weak passing, and a limited post-game repertoire.
There is only one way that Valanciunas can score efficiently and often – starting from the left side and cutting in for the running hook. It’s a solid move, one that’s pretty hard to stop. But it’s also easy to predict, which limits the amount of touches Valanciunas can get offensively. If he’s able to add an element to his offensive game where he can post-up defenders on the right side and be more decisive, his game will open up dramatically. Even if he can get more comfortable starting from the elbow and working his way into the paint on a consistent basis, he’ll become far more feared. In essence, this is exactly what he needs to do more of:
Nice footwork, the pump-fake is quick, smooth, and decisive.
Dwane Casey would be just fine if Valanciunas’ FG% dipped if it meant he can consistently add moves like that to his game. Volume means lower shooting percentage – Anthony Davis’ 53.7% at nearly 18 field goal attempts is much more conducive to his team than Valanciunas’ 57% at 8 field goal attempts. That’s the best example, of course, but it’s a general rule of thumb. Be good, be unpredictable, and we can live with a drop in efficiency.
A good post-player that Valanciunas can learn from is Donatas Motiejunas – a silky smooth big man with tremendous footwork and a versatile repertoire.
Apart from his indecisiveness and limited offense, there is another glaring reason why the Raptors can’t go to Valanciunas more often: He struggles with passing out of a double-team. Valanciunas is really efficient at scoring down-low, which naturally means he will draw double-teams. That’s always a good thing.
As per Gregg Popovich:
“One way that big guys are gonna still be valuable is if you have a big guy that demands a double-team. If you have a big guy that you don’t have to double-team? You’re in trouble. But if you got a big guy, he better be somebody who is good enough that he commands a double so it can get kicked, and moved, and you can penetrate or pitch for the threes.”
Popovich, by the way, was intrigued about drafting Valanciunas in 2011. It would have been fascinating to see how much quicker Jonas would have developed under the guidance of Pop and Duncan.
Back to his point.
If the Raptors kick it down-low, they know that they don’t necessarily need Valanciunas to score. De facto, they may even kick it to him expecting him to draw a double-team all the while readying themselves for a dish-out to the perimeter for an open three. But they won’t do that knowing that Valanciunas can’t pass it out.
Plain and simple, his passing needs to improve. Valanciunas ranks dead lasts amongst qualified NBA centers in assists (.5 apg). He’s in the same mould as Ian Mahimi. Telling.
Defensively, Valanciunas has become more than a respectable rim protector. By February of last season, Valanciunas’ rim protection (based on opponents’ FG% allowed) ranked higher than the likes of Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Joakim Noah, and Al Horford. By the end of the year, he improved even more, eventually trumping the likes of DeMarcus Cousins, Hassan Whiteside, Josh Smith, Draymond Green, Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan, Timofey Mozgov, and Andre Drummond.
The final number: Valanciunas allowed his opponents to shoot 46.5% at the rim according to Nylon Calculus. Of course, that number shot through the roof during the playoffs in a disastrous way. In the sweep at the hands of the Wizards, Valanciunas allowed his opponents to shoot 63.6% – one of the worst during the post-season. Unfortunately for the Raptors, it didn’t help that Patrick Patterson’s defending down-low was even worse, as he allowed his opponents to shoot a whopping 69.6%.
Consider this distinction: Marcin Gortat allowed 51.1%. Drew Gooden: 53.8%.
If Masai Ujiri was serious about basing the bulk of his evaluation on how his players perform in the playoffs, those numbers are something he will analyze thoroughly before the trade deadline.
Trading Jonas before the deadline won’t be out of the realm of possibility. Depending on how he performs, Valanciunas may not earn the max – but the reality is he might get it anyway whether it be in Toronto or elsewhere. Knowing that, Masai might not gamble losing him for nothing if his performances aren’t up to par. On the flip-side, the best thing to do would be to stay pat until the end of the season – evaluate the year and match the max offers if need be. If he’s not worth it by then, you let him walk and absolutely forget about tying up more cap room in a big free agent year.
Will Masai want to extend Jonas in order to save money in the off-season? That’s not entirely how it works. Any contract negotiations now would revolve around the max-raise next year. So unless Valanciunas wants to take a paycut this year to ensure a longer contract, a cheap extension is unlikely. Barring a disaster, Valanciunas is going to get paid.
Zach Lowe reported earlier this week in his Grantland column that Valanciunas is a lock to demand a max-level extension. But at this point, extending his contract early might prove to be a knee-jerk reaction of sorts. Sure, his value is still tremendous. I mean, a talented – and young – starting NBA center is always going to have value.
Patrick Patterson may help Jonas improve this season offensively. When paired with Amir, Valanciunas lost the majority of his touches inside to his power forward counterpart. Patterson doesn’t demand that kind of inside touch. Instead, he’ll stretch the floor and spot-up beyond the arc while Valanciunas can be the go-to-guy down-low.
Defensively the Patterson – Valanciunas tandem really struggled, especially in the post-season. On offense though, it was a good proposition. That duo, per 100 possessions, had a +/- of .8; while the Amir – JV tandem was a -2.6.
There’s still indication that Valanciunas can make a leap this year if he really puts his mind to it. He needs to improve on his deficiencies, but above all, he needs to get to a level where he’s entrusted with 30 mpg – simply because a 25 mpg player is never worth a max contract.
Ultimately, Masai Ujiri may have to decide between letting Casey run the show, or giving Valanciunas a max-contract which would establish him as a 30-34 mpg player, something that doesn’t seem probable with Dwane Casey around.
