The Homecoming
Certain holidays are synonymous with specific sporting events. Father’s Day marks the final day of the U.S. Open Golf Tournament, Labor Day coincides with the final weekend of the U.S. Open Tennis Grand Slam, New Years Day features endless NCAA Football Bowls and Christmas Day offers an entire day of NBA games.
Likewise, Canadian Thanksgiving is identified with Major League Baseball playoffs. And, while the Blue Jays have us all on heart monitors as they attempt to extend their series this afternoon please excuse me as I abandon the diamond for the hard court.
Tonight the newly anointed Captain Canada: Andrew Wiggins returns to his home city with his re-tooled Minnesota Timberwolves for a preseason match versus the Toronto Raptors. It marks the first of two games Wiggins and company will play in his home province (the second in Ottawa on Wednesday evening). It’s a homecoming of sorts for more than just Wiggins as there are multiple individuals reuniting between the two teams.
The most obvious connection is Anthony Bennett who was bought out by Minnesota prior to joining Toronto as a free agent. There are the 3 Canucks who played for Team Canada (Bennett, Joseph, Wiggins) at the FIBA Americas tournament versus Raptor Luis Scola and his Argentinean team.
Yet arguably the most interesting connection features the Timberwolves acting head coach Sam Mitchell. The last time he held the chalkboard as the man in charge was for the Toronto Raptors. During that stint he won Coach of the Year and took a Raptors team from the basement to the apex. That season (2006-07) the team improved from 27 to 47 victories winning the Atlantic Division in the process.
In fact, what Mitchell did with that Raptors squad isn’t much different from what he’s trying to accomplish this season with his T-Wolves. And, whether Kevin Garnett wants to hear it or not I think I understand why Mitchell is driving the Big Ticket crazy reflecting on Toronto.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0POOHdHCIks
Roster Similarities:
Examining the 2006-07 Raptors team it’s hard not to make comparisons to the current T-Wolves situation or their reformatted roster:
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Veteran Leadership: Rasho Nesterovic, Darrick Martin – Kevin Garnett, Andre Miller, Tayshaun Prince
Season’s Top Draft Pick: Andrea Bargnani (R)– Karl-Anthony Towns (R)
Franchise Star: Chris Bosh (3)– Andrew Wiggins (2)
Rising Talent: T.J. Ford (2) – Shabazz Muhammad (2)
Second Year Young Talented Big: Kris Humphries (2) – Gorgui Dieng (2)
Young Point Guard: Jose Calderon (1) – Tyus Jones (R)
Projected High Ceiling With Yet Unrecognized Results: Joey Graham (2) – Zach LaVine (2)
Veteran European Rookie: Jorge Garbojosa (37 year old with 11 years of European play)– Nemanja Bjelica (6 seasons overseas 27 years old)
Year 4 Players With Mixed Results: Juan Dixon (4) – Ricky Rubio (4)
Shooting Specialist/Productive Depth: Morris Peterson (6) Anthony Parker (3) – Kevin Martin (11) , Nikola Pekovic (5)
Comparing the above categories of the players by their specific assets and years spent in the NBA it’s quite eerie how similar the 2 teams (though 9 years apart) are. Specifically, both teams selected the top draft pick who happened to be a big (let’s not wish the same results upon Minnesota though). Also coincidentally both teams have an older European rookie, second and fourth year players each dealing with similar issues and experienced winning vets.
Granted the T-Wolves have (in my opinion) a better crew of veterans on their roster, and I believe that factor may help separate them from their young opponents like Utah who don’t have the same veteran depth and did nothing this summer to get some. New Orleans also failed to add one experienced vet of similar ilk to the 3 Minnesota added to assist Anthony Davis in his ascension to the throne.
Comparing the Stats:
Still, given how closely Mitchell’s squad is to the one he coached in Toronto I crunched some more numbers to see if there are further similarities.
Although the 2005-06 Raptors squad was better offensively, in fairness Minnesota was without Ricky Rubio for over 60 games last season. In fact Rubio, Martin, Pekovic and Muhammad missed 198 games (more than 60%).
What is mirror reflective of the 2005-06 Raptor squad and last year’s Wolves is how poorly they played defense. Both finished in the bottom two of the Association in their defensive ranking. Mitchell improved his Raptors squad 17 spots from 29th to 12th in one season and for Minnesota to climb up the ladder they’ll need to come close to replicating that feat.
(and proving YouTube and social media have grown by leaps and bounds check out this beauty below)
There is other precedent:
Now before you tell me it’s the West and can’t be done, I’ll point you to the 2008-09 Thunder who won 50 games after a 23 win season or the 2011-12 Warriors who improved from 23 wins to 47 wins. Both squads made the playoffs.
I’m often asked about my predictions and how my track record is well above the median. Though I do look at analytics, coaching and chemistry the real factor I trust is my gut instinct. On the years I noted above I had the Thunder and Warriors improving to make the playoffs. Sure, they had great young players on them, but talent alone won’t get it done. Rather in both situations it was my gut that told me the exact mix of their personnel combined with that young talent would result in a massive upward leap. I have the same feeling about this T-Wolves squad.
Without divisional seeds available the Wolves will need to accomplish their task by beating the best in the West, but they will benefit by being in the easier Northwest Division as it offers them 4 games each against the Nuggets and decimated Trail Blazers.
This season the schedule becomes a positive factor for Minnesota with them getting the luck of the draw. Every year teams face a teams in their own Conference either 3 or 4 times. For the T-Wolves they got a great draw. as the teams they face just 3 times includes three Western powerhouses in Golden State, San Antonio and Houston (and the Lakers). In addition they play only 14 sets of back to back games which is a huge advantage, That’s 3 fewer sets of back to backs than Toronto who has 17 and 6 fewer than Houston who play 20 sets!
The Raptors task this season is very different from the Wolves as they look to improve upon a disappointing post season thumping. Whereas the Wolves added high end youthful talent and grizzled vets Toronto tweaked their line-up adding defensive specialist Bismack Biyombo and 2-way players in DeMarre Carroll, Cory Joseph and arguably Luis Scola.
Paradoxically the player Minnesota shed via a buy-out due to a glut of talent at that position could end up becoming an x-factor for the Raptors if he can continue to grow. Should Bennett ever develop an ability to defend coupled with consistency in his shot he may offer the stretch four the Raptors desire. And while he represents additional home grown talent to satiate Canadian fans alongside the ever impressive Cory Joseph, it’s really the other Canadian on Minnesota’s squad the ACC faithful truly desire to see in a Raptor jersey.
A small digression:
I wondered while watching the Bulls versus T-Wolves Saturday in Winnipeg at the packed MTS Centre if Manitoban’s are part of the “We The North” contingent. Given Minneapolis is literally 100 miles (as per the comments below it’s approximately 450 miles from Winnipeg … teach me for trusting those announcers) it provides a sound argument for them to consider the T-Wolves their home team. No doubt Wiggins will get a similar dose of adoring fans congregating to the ACC tonight and in Ottawa on Wednesday. Which also made me ponder is the Canada series the NBA is actively promoting to feature Canada’s team – The Raptors or Canada’s player – Andrew Wiggins?
Summing Up:
Though I’ll always bleed Raptor purple I have to admit the fact I’m comparing this season’s T-Wolves to Sam Mitchell’s Raptor 2006-07 team does highlight how much I’m actively interested in Wiggins and pining for his success. I also readily admit my hopes are he’ll bring “his talents” to the great North upon first opportunity. For now, I’ll suffice with envisioning his current team succeeding as they hone his leadership skills and prepare him for his eventual departure.
Wishing everyone a very happy Thanksgiving. And go Raps (er Jays) go!
