With the season set to begin in a little over 24 hours, it’s prime prediction-making time. You already know how those of us at Raptors Republic feel about the most pressing questions facing the 2015-16 Toronto Raptors (here and here), but it’s worth stepping outside of the echo chamber to get some additional perspective.
While everyone tries to be honest with their prognostications – I think most would rather be “right” than “far too cheery and wildly incorrect” (there’s no worse feeling than “far too negative and wildly incorrect,” by the way) – there’s a good chance we’re all too close to see the team’s outlook in a more macro sense. Sure, Raptors die-hards (yourself included) probably know the team really well by this point, but there are 30 franchises and fanbases selling optimism right now. It can be instructive to look around at what everyone else is saying about the team.
So that’s what we’ll do.
Grantland – Zach Lowe
The best in the business feels more or less the same as the rest of us about the Raptors: They’re fine, good even, but he doesn’t sound particularly excited. Lowe didn’t slap a win total on his rankings, but he did say the Raptors will finish “closer to eighth than second,” and placed them in the “Solid Playoff Teams, But Nothing More” tier. Here’s what he had to say:
There is a more tumultuous downside here than people might realize, but even if some of that downside hits, there’s no way these guys should miss the playoffs. They have too much talent, with a remodeled defense and an offense that should remain powerful even without Lou Williams, Greivis Vasquez, and the underrated — but always limping — Amir Johnson. They’ve swapped some one-on-one scoring for spacing and passing, and in the long run, that should pay off.
ESPN Forecast
The fine folks at ESPN polled a panel of more than 200 members, with the projected record coming in at 44-38, good for 6ixth in the East.
Mike Prada of SB Nation
Prada’s analysis is generally some of the sharpest in the industry, but he’s by far the most pessimistic about the Raptors, pegging them at 38-44 and outside of the playoffs. “That’s the pick I feel least sure about,” Prada tweeted as a follow-up. I’m hoping to get a chance to follow up more intimately with him about his concerns.
Seth Partnow of Nylon Calculus
One of the breakout analysts of the 2014-15 season, Partnow didn’t attach win totals to his projected standings but seems to be in line with most on Toronto, penciling them for fifth in the conference. He lives in Alaska, by the way, so HE the north.
Nylon Calculus
If you’re at all statistically inclined, Nylon Calculus should be on your bookmarks (or RSS, or whatever people use) by now. They have several different projection systems up ahead of the start of the season. Hal Brown’s power rankings have the Raptors down for 49 wins, good for second in the East. Nathan Walker’s system has them at 47.8 wins, third in the conference. Nick Restifo’s is even more optimistic, with a projection of 52 wins and the two-seed. And Andrew Johnson’s methodology projects 48 wins, fourth in the conference.
I think what becomes clear from looking at Nylon Calculus against some of the other outlets is that there’s something qualitative about the Raptors that’s not being picked up by the projection systems (or alternatively, something in the data that most people are missing). To generalize, the projection systems seem to be a few wins higher on the Raptors than others, save for FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO system.
FiveThirtyEight
“The Raptors are lucky they play in an awful division,” is the heading given to the Raptors’ 44-38 prediction over at the datalab. Probably fair.
Kelly Dwyer of Ball Don’t Lie
The Yahoo squad has the Raptors down for 45 wins and seventh in the East. That would mean the East is far better than most anticipate, but hey.
The Eye on Basketball crew
The fine folks over at CBS don’t hate your team, after all. Matt Moore has Cory Joseph down for Sixth Man of the Year and the team down for a robust 47 wins. RR-alum and annoyingly talented feature writer James Herbert is more optimistic at 50 wins, Zach Harper is a win more shy than Moore at 46, and Ananth Pandian comes in low at 42. EOB is also hooked up with SportsLine for the season, and SportsLine projects 44 wins and a fourth-place finish for the Raps.
Paul Flannery and Tom Ziller of SB Nation
This entire preview series was phenomenal, and when you have two guys as talented as this pair, letting them e-mail exchange team previews is a smart and novel approach. They feel “there are reasons to be nervous” about the Raptors. They don’t throw a win total on their piece, but it’s worth a quick read anyway. In their league-wide preview, Ziller and Flannery had the Raps sixth and seventh in the East, respectively.
Power Rankings
Marc Stein of ESPN has the Raptors 12th, NBA.com’s John Schuhmann has them 13th, and Sports Illustrated has them 11th. That’s consistently, at least.
Vegas
It’s always instructive to look at Vegas win totals to gauge a team’s quality. While there are occasionally lines that stand out and public betting may make an impact, bookmakers are, for the most part, incredibly sharp. They have tons of information, pour plenty of resources into setting their lines, and can adjust quickly. Bovada is generally where I check for lines (Westgate Superbook is good, too), and they have the following lines for Toronto: -200 to win the Atlantic, +2500 to win the East, +5000 to win the title, and at last update they had the Raps over-under at 46.5 wins, which feels close but may be a shade high.
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That’s obviously a lot to sort through, so here’s a quick snapshot that hopefully sums things up. I’ve probably (definitely) missed a few good outlets and analysts, but these were the ones that popped into mind putting this together.
RESULT: Average projection of 46.1 wins, fifth seed in East
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And just for fun, since we’re looking at the takes from others around the league, here are my league-wide predictions for the season.
