The Toronto Raptors have agreed to a contract extension with Terrence Ross, according to a report from Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports. The extension will pay Ross “nearly” $33 million over three years.
The sides were said to be working on a potential deal right up until the deadline with an agreement a “50/50” proposition as of 10 p.m., but all was quiet in the minutes leading up to midnight. Ross confirmed the extension shortly after Wojnarowski’s tweet.
Happy to say I will be in #Toronto 4 more years! I want to thank God, my family, management, and the @Raptors! #WeTheNorth
— Terrence Ross (@T_DotFlight31) November 3, 2015
A deal getting done is somewhat surprising given the disparate positions from which the sides were negotiating. Player and team are always negotiating against each other, of course, but Ross’ stock was low following a tough season and the Raptors replacing him in the starting lineup with DeMarre Carroll this offseason. General manager Masai Ujiri isn’t shy about taking risks on mid-level contracts, and Ross’ deal is a major bet on his development from here.
The dollar figure is going to stand out to most, as Ross will be paid in double-figures annually. But any contract that begins in 2016 or later requires a re-calibration of one’s perception of relative salaries. If $10 million per year for Ross seems ludicrous given his production to date, it’s necessary to remember that the salary cap is projected to jump from $70 million this season to $90 million next season and $108 million the season following – $10 million for Ross in 2016-17 cap dollars is about $7.8 million in 2015-16 cap dollars, a more reasonable, if still player-friendly amount.
The Charlotte Hornets just paid the far less proven Jeremy Lamb $21 million over three years on an extension, and Ross’ camp probably began negotiations looking for something in the four-year, $48-million range. There will be enough money flooding a weak market next summer that had Ross hit restricted free agency after a breakout season, he could have conceivably commanded that amount or more. The Raptors seem to believe as much, at least.
An extension only behooved the Raptors if they felt they’re locking Ross in at a discount. Ross, meanwhile, probably wanted to be paid as if a potential breakout has already happened, leveraging Lamb’s deal and the changing marketplace. If the Raptors wouldn’t cut the check, Ross, with his value at a perceived nadir, seemed a good candidate to bet on himself and test the market in a few months time. That’s entirely fair on the part of Ross’ camp to have negotiated as such, and they did have some leverage considering the 2016 market. They did well for themselves, even considering the NBA economy, and this deal is surely to be met with some raised eyebrows.
And at the same time, the Raptors jumping to overpay a player who has been wildly inconsistent in his three seasons with the team, one who still doesn’t have a clear NBA role and who the team essentially saw fit to replace (or demote) in free agency this summer by signing Carroll, was unexpected. From the Raptors’ perspective, waiting on a deal and then paying Ross if he did break out would have been a more suitable gamble than paying him now based on the chance that he could breakout.
The contract won’t be untradeable, and it’s worth remembering that most thought DeMar DeRozan’s similarly-priced extension was an overpay at the time. DeRozan had proven a lot more to that point, but the cap was also much smaller. This isn’t necessarily egregious, but it’s absolutely a risk – while the deal isn’t for an obscene amount of money in the new cap environment, the Raptors are showing a great deal of faith in Ross and their own ability to tap into his obvious potential. That’s a reasonable gambit, and perhaps one the franchise felt was necessary with DeRozan headed for unrestricted free agency and Ross reportedly showing some consistency to supplement his occasional flashes of high-end potential. They may believe he’s their best chance to improve from within, and if that’s true, they created that path to improving by extending him. The pressure is now on Ross to deliver, and do so at both ends of the floor, game after game.
The No. 8 pick in the 2012 draft, Ross will be 25 next summer and has at least one obvious NBA skill: outside shooting. He has the tools to be a plus defender but has only used them on occasion, oscillating between potential stopper and sleepy pylon. He’s averaged 9.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 0.9 assists in 23.2 minutes, shooting 41.6 percent overall and 37.4 percent from long-range in 239 career games and the Raptors have been better without him on the floor in all three of his seasons. Despite the strong outside shooting, his true shooting percentage has been below average thanks to a lack of effectiveness insider the arc, trouble finishing, and a complete aversion to the free-throw line. Considering he doesn’t hit the boards, struggles to defend small forwards, and hasn’t been able to create for himself or others to date thanks to a shaky handle, it’s difficult to call Ross anything but a shooter with any reliability.
Ross isn’t worth anything near $11 million based on what he’s shown so far, which, for all the caveats about why the Raptors may have made this move, is quite important. There is a lot of work still to be done.
But again, that potential. Given his athleticism – this is a former Slam Dunk Champion – and shot, it’s frustrating that Ross hasn’t solidified himself as a “3-and-D” type yet. Those who watch the team regularly have changed their minds on Ross so often that there’s a Terrence Ross Belief Chart, an automatically generated tweet from my account to William Lou whenever Ross is particularly good or bad, and a suggestion that if Ross ever finds consistency in his game, he re-brand the good version of himself as Terry Ross. He tantalizes and disappoints, frustrates and entices, intrigues and exasperates. It probably would have been best for the mental health of all involved that the Raptors hadn’t paid Ross just yet, lest the bad days become even more vexing, but there’s at least strong evidence the fan base is capable of talking themselves into Ross.
And really, who knows? Player development is a curious, non-linear thing. It’s entirely possible Ross never puts it all together and equally possible a switch turns on and Ross figures it out. Players who have plenty of physical potential but seem to lack on the awareness side are tough to figure out.
Ross’s progression compared to competition should be on full display starting with the NBA games today, but the first three games of the season have been encouraging, insomuch as three games can mean anything. Terry Ross has had stretches like this before but eventually reverted to being Terrence Ross, a major concern. Still, his decisiveness and aggression attacking closeouts has been a revelation so far, his handle looks tighter, and he’s made a few passes off the bounce that he definitely wouldn’t have seen in previous years. The move to a reserve role may have helped some, either by putting him against weaker competition or by taking some pressure off, and the returns have been solid: Ross has 37 points in 51 minutes and has scored them with terrific efficiency, shooting 6-of-13 from outside, grabbing eight rebounds, dishing three assists, and even taking five free-throw attempts, small totals that would represent major steps forward on a per-minute basis if sustained for any amount of time.
Again, it’s three games, and Ross has done this before. His three years as a Raptor have been largely uneven, and right now it’s difficult to say with certainty that he’s anything beyond an athletic shooter. There’s a lot of potential still underneath the surface, but potential is a tough thing to pay for.
Had the two sides failed to agree on a deal, Ross would have hit restricted free agency on July 1. From there, the Raptors would have tendered Ross a $4.8-million qualifying offer (or $4 million if he fails to meet a few criteria), giving them the right to match any offer sheet he signed. The three-year, $33-million contract protects against the Raptors losing Ross for nothing if competing teams priced him out of their range next summer and further solidifies the core moving forward. It also eats about $1.2 million extra in cap space (his cap hold would have been $8.9 million), a small but not insignificant amount for a team that now has an estimated $69.9 million committed to 10 players for 2016-17.
The message is clear from the organization: They believe Ross has more to offer than he’s shown, and they’re willing to back that belief up with a Brinks truck.
Now it’s on Ross to vindicate them.
