More or less since the moment he was hired, Dwane Casey’s job security has been a popular topic of conversation on the Raptors Republics forums and in comments on articles. When general manager Masai Ujiri opted to retain Casey after an embarrassing four-game sweep at the hands of the Washington Wizards last spring, the discourse around Casey got louder, more polarizing, and far less open to dissenting opinions.
It reached a crescendo last week, as the Raptors dropped a third consecutive narrow defeat on the road to a Western Conference team. Even Monday, following back-to-back victories, articles generated comments about Casey that had nothing to do with the content of the piece. Along with the comments and forums, we receive regular tweets from a handful of followers demanding Casey’s job. We’ve even received multiple emails asking why we haven’t written a Casey hit piece.
The reasons are two-fold: Not all of us who write here feel Casey needs to go, and those who do have long expressed that belief and probably don’t feel the need to republish after every two-game losing streak.
Nevertheless, because it’s a popular topic for readers, I thought we should take the pulse of our staff and at least provide high-level answers about Casey, the job he’s doing, and how hot his seat is. I asked our writers five questions, suggesting a word limit that I probably should have “suggested” more firmly. Their answers are provided here (Sam, a noted anti-Casey voice, was unable to contribute), and I urge anyone who feels one way or the other about the Raptors’ head coach to answer them in the comments, too.
Note: William Lou is no longer with RR other than the podcast, but he recently wrote at length about Casey. You should read that.
1. Do you think Dwane Casey should be fired? Why or why not?
Blake Murphy: I don’t. When Ujiri opted to keep him this offseason, it meant keeping him for the entire year unless the season was a disaster. You don’t retain a coach, overhaul his staff, ask him to change his defensive system, and bring in three players suited specifically to his style of play and then turn around and fire that coach in November. Casey’s five-year tenure has been somewhat of a mixed bag and the playoff losses naturally stand out as the primary memories, but he hasn’t been objectionably bad. He’s been slow to adjust systemic issues and has under-performed relative to defensive expectations, but he’s also over-performed offensively despite having stars well-suited to uncreative iso-ball. The last point is on him, too, but if handing the ball to your offensive stars in crunch time was a fireable offense, half the league would be out of a job.
Casey has his flaws, to be sure. But he’s working four new players into his nine-man rotation, playing with five players on the roster who are essentially garbage time-only options as they develop, and asking those who are playing to employ a new defensive scheme. The Raptors also lead the league in road games and have faced almost a league-average quality of competition (one I’d bet looks tougher in retrospect once the East-West balance comes back in order some).
And despite all of that, the Raptors are 9-6, seventh in offense, and 10th in defense. They are a good team, performing to expectations. I don’t understand how people can look at all of the evidence and suggest that the optimal strategy is to can the coach mid-season. This is a discussion for a 10-game losing streak or the offseason, when Casey’s contract is up. The fact that we’re doing this post today astounds me.
Tim Chisholm: I do not. At least, not less than a month into the season. Casey has been handed a largely new rotation, the holdovers carry large flaws that he has to account for, and there are significant holes that he is trying to overcome (he doesn’t even have a legit starting power forward yet). If the team had started 2-13 then you can start to have that conversation about his suitability as head coach, but they are still at .500, they are mostly losing close games and they are doing it despite Patrick Patterson being a no-show, Terrence Ross being injured and ol’ stone-hands Biyombo leaving them 4-on-5 on offence for 17 minutes per game.
I don’t really know what fans expected out of this season. We’re still talking about a team without a legitimate superstar that employs three high-usage, isolation-happy players at the top of their rotation (Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas). Casey may not be the perfect coach, and this may be a conversation to have in the offseason when they’re not contractually compelled to bring him back, but firing him fifteen games into the season seems ridiculously quick. Heck, even Sam Mitchell got until the seventeen-game mark before he was fired in 2008.
Andrew Thompson: Count me among those who were more than a little flummoxed when Casey was brought back in this past summer. That was the time to change course. I don’t think that the average fan understands just how precious little practice time these teams get once the season has started. Having loud voices or key players who are resistant to change makes it even more difficult to effect the style of play or implement completely new ideas or philosophies on the fly. Some things have gotten better this year, while other things (see fourth quarter offense, rotations and ATO plays) have stayed stagnant in the abyss. You can’t keep on making the same crippling mistakes and expect me to think that you’ll get better at those now. It’s been too long. Is DeMar selfishly responsible for forcing the ball into his hands for iso’s that consume entire shot clocks and lead to turnovers or heaves more often than good basketball plays in big moments? Or does Casey keep calling for those? Either way he takes some fault, but if he calls for them, then I’d love to see what DeMar looks like in a better-coached system before deciding on a contract. I can’t say the Raptors will be better off without Casey overall without knowing who comes in, and even then, it’s a serious uphill battle. Having said that, I don’t think he should be the coach moving forward next year, and I don’t think the Raptors win the title this year, so really, what does it matter if he goes now or in June? Should Casey be fired? Sure.
Shyam Baskaran: When the Toronto Raptors began the season 5-0, fans pointed to the boldness of Masai Ujiri in sticking to his guns with Dwane Casey and opting for stability, a defensive focus, and with a plethora of players now conducive to playing that style, all things seemed swell in Raptor land. Wins against the Mavericks and Thunder on the road were convincing and indicative of something truly special with this squad. Now, with losses against the Magic, Knicks, Heat, Kings, and Jazz, all teams we thought we could easily beat after that 5-0 start, the fan consensus has changed. Mediocre defense and lack of crunch time execution probably makes most of those fickle Raptor fans believe that after four and a half years here in Toronto, Casey’s time has come.
The reality is that while Dwane Casey can probably shoulder the blame for a lot of the Raptors’ early season struggles, keep the following things in mind:
• This is a pretty new team, with eight new faces and a completely new bench. I would think Casey needs at least 20-30 games for us to really get an idea as to whether it’s truly his fault (not to mention whether removing him alone will solve anything).
• The team has started the season with 11/15 games on the road. And despite what it seems like recently, we’re still a respectable 6-5 on the road so far, with wins against OKC, Dallas, and now the Clips. And don’t forget a near victory against the seemingly invincible Golden State Warriors. Yes, it was a loss, but it was impressive nonetheless.
• Coming into the season, the Raptors weren’t exactly expected to be world beaters. We were expected to be in the 44-50 win range, division winners, and likely a 3-6 seed in the Eastern Conference. Those targets, while not exactly easy, still seem very achievable given the relatively easier part of the schedule is yet to come. If it’s another first round exit come April, maybe we’ve got bigger questions to ask than just coaching.
Tamberlyn Richardson: I’m not a proponent of firing coaches mid season unless there is no other option. Casey has shown growth in some areas this year and I like the effect the new assistant coaches have brought to the mix.
Barry Taylor: Casey should be fired. He was never Ujiri’s guy and was supposed to go down with the tank after the Rudy Gay trade. On this most recent road trip his inability to call plays resulted in the team having to call back to back timeouts or turning the ball over to an expiring shot clock. Last year it was the isolation plays with Lou Williams and this year it’s DeRozan. His refusal to play JV late in games last year and James Johnson in the playoffs was beyond frustrating not only because of the moves themselves but his inability to provide a legitimate reason for them. He never explains anything. His press conferences and media scrums are constantly filled with cliches about pounding rocks, sticking to game plans and defensive execution. No real specifics, just some giant broad strokes. There’s no clear game plan or team identity.
Zarar Siddiqi: Yes, but only if you already have the next coach lined up and you intend to stick with that coach for the next five years. The next coach for the Raptors has to be the person that takes this team from playoff fodder to playoff contender, while developing the youth. If Masai Ujiri doesn’t have that person ready in waiting, there’s no point getting rid of Casey and handing the reins to one of his assistants. If Ujiri had full faith in Casey, he would’ve been extended by now and him being out of contract at this point says a lot about Ujiri’s mindset regarding Casey, which can be summed up as undecided.
Unlike last season, Casey’s been given his ‘type’ of players to work with so it’s only fair that Ujiri gives him a fair shot at working things out. Unless the Raptors have a disastrous regular season, that fair shot includes seeing how the team performs in the playoffs and whether lessons learned from failures past can be applied in a meaningful context.
2. Assuming Casey stays, what are the areas you’d like to see improvement in?
Murphy: Late-game execution is huge. The Raptors’ offense actually doesn’t grade out that poorly on crunch-time numbers, but putting the playbook away late kills me. Prior to the Valanciunas’ injury, I would have said creativity in his rotations, but he’s done well in that regard of late. So yeah, maybe keep the whiteboard in hand late instead of deferring to talented but imperfect one-on-one options.
Chisholm: I don’t know how he does it, but he has to stop DeRozan from isolating so much. DeRozan is wired to isolate, and you can tell it frustrates his teammates, and Casey has permitted it for years so it would be hard to rein him in now. Still, the team requires more ball movement and player movement on offence to become less predictable and DeRozan just can’t seem to find a way to buy-in to that structure, and Casey has to find a way to make that connection.
The rest of the problems with the club right now strike me as rooted more in unfamiliarity and the limitations of the roster. I am also not someone that limits the scope of the job to the 48 minutes of game time that coach is on public display for.
Thompson: The offense, especially late in games, can not be the same. The Raptors are wasting six seconds limping into a dribble hand off to get DeMar the ball on the perimeter and then hoping he can get to the line from there. Even out of time-outs. There is no creativity and no help. If you insist on a DeMar iso, at least run some actions to get him the ball in a more favorable position and bend the defense around him so the whole team isn’t ready to help.
Baskaran: One of the clear weaknesses we’ve seen is a lack of offensive execution and creativity down the stretch, with mostly isolation plays and no real plan to attack with other weapons on the floor like Cory Joseph, who has proven himself to be an efficient and reliable scorer. This was exemplified in the win against the Clippers, who despite our poor offense in the second half, refused to snatch the game away from the Raptors. While we could make the argument that Casey should be fired today for those reasons alone, why not give him another 15-20 games for the factors mentioned in question one, and if this continues to be an issue thereafter, then address the coaching situation seriously at that point. This could be likened to Sam Mitchell firing of 08/09 when the Raptors started 8-9 and after an embarrassing west coast road trip featuring a 39-point loss to the Nuggets, the Raptors quickly reacted with a firing and ended up nowhere with Triano filling in as interim.
Richardson: I was talking to a Houston blogger who loves Casey’s end-game management. Color me shocked as I thought he needs to improve the most in that area. Specifically player time management, reading and adjusting to match-ups and out of time-out plays. Assuming Casey is tasked (or has the ultimate say) in player development that’s the other key area I feel the Raptors have lagged in comparison to their opponents.
Taylor: Design a play. Create a play that involves some ball movement out of a timeout and doesn’t end with DeRozan taking a twenty foot jumper or the ball clanking off of Biyombo’s hands.
Siddiqi: Trust your offense and don’t succumb to the temptation of having your stars go one-on-one when it counts. You’ll lose a few games because of that, but you’ll be better off in the long run. We know that iso-ball doesn’t work when it counts, not when you have third-tier NBA players as your best players. We know he has some good offensive designs in that playbook of his, and it’s better to stick with them and better them so that by year’s end you have an offense that plays like the post-Gay trade unit. We’ll be a few games worse when it comes to the record, but that’s OK.
3. How much impact do you think a coach can have on a team’s W-L record over the course of a season? A playoff series?
Murphy: This is a tough one to answer. Why did I ask it then? Good question, but I doubt there’s a way to quantify it. A coach has an impact on so much outside of the 48 minutes of play, impact that I wonder if sometimes we underestimate. Conversely, I think we tend to overestimate a coach’s impact on individual games and possessions. That would be an understandable error given the primacy of late-game scenarios. In this case, I’d venture Casey’s contributions come primarily in the macro, whereas he struggles at times in the micro. A better micro coach isn’t necessarily going to add more wins if the larger-picture stuff isn’t there, too.
Chisholm: I think a heavy impact, but it’s about more than just strategy. How does he balance work and rest? How does he relate to his players? How does he manage expectations? How does he handle internal strife? Like just about every head coach talks about, the sets that teams run are largely the same, and you tailor your approach to the players you have. The other stuff counts just as much, and can have a massive impact on on-court success.
Thompson: Over the course of an entire season, starting in training camp, a coach can mean the difference between a completely dysfunctional team and 40 wins. Look at SVG in Detroit, Coach Bud in Atlanta or Kerr in GS. In a playoff series it matters even more. How many people think Scott Brooks needed to get fired simply because of how he handled lineups and adjustments in playoff series? There is a reason the vast majority of titles over the last 25 years belong to Riley, Jackson and Pop.
Baskaran: The coaches coach, but the players put the ball in the hole. It’s up to guys like Lowry, DeRozan and Carroll to take a heightened leadership role and bring the mental fortitude it takes to close out games. The talent-based NBA today is based mostly on players, and save for the exceptional cases (Popovich, Stevens, and Carlisle come to mind), the players make or break ball games. Just ask Luke Walton. The Raptors don’t exactly have the Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant (pre-2013), Anthony Davis, etc. to carry the load single-handedly down the stretch – so if close games are lost, can it be purely on the coach to be better? Probably not. Over the course of a season, could we see may be 1 or 2 more wins through “better” designed plays and X’s and O’s? Maybe. Coaches guide and organize, but players on most occasions win or lose ball games. Top notch talent wins in the NBA – that’s the bottom line.
Richardson: LOTS! Going back to the Western Conference Finals between OKC and the Spurs, the changes Scott Brooks made won OKC the WCF and sent them to their first finals. Steve Kerr starting Iguodala was huge this year. In my opinion Rick Carlisle, Brad Stevens and Gregg Popovich are the best at game strategy and adapting in game. Erik Spoelstra is underrated and Mike Malone is a coach I see great potential in.
Taylor: The coach sets the tone. He implements a system and it’s up to the players to execute it. 90% of the outcome is determined by what the players do but it’s up to the coach to create the best opportunity to succeed. The Raptors aren’t an elite team yet and even if they had Popovich they wouldn’t win the title this year but at the very least they’d be able to organize a clean shot out of a timeout.
Siddiqi: Significant. Only because I think DeMar DeRozan, Terrence Ross, James Johnson, Patrick Patterson, and Jonas Valanciunas have more to offer than what they’re currently doing. I don’t think the Raptors have a system that caters to the strengths of these players, and that’s why you’re seeing spotty performances from a majority of these players, with fans begging for consistency.
4. Are there any specific (and available) candidates that you feel would make a good successor?
Murphy: Shrug. Ujiri knows a lot better than we would as complete outsiders, and I’d imagine if he kept Casey on without an extension, he may have eyes for someone who either isn’t available yet or isn’t quite ready yet. The staff of assistants has several potential future head coaches (Nurse was an early Ujiir hire, Kalamian and Greer are well-regarded) and there may be other first-timers worth interviewing at length. The only people we have information on are retreads, which I’m generally going to be unenthused about.
Chisholm: There is no one I’d be chomping at the bit to hire. Again people point to Jeff Van Gundy, who hasn’t coached in nine seasons, or Tom Thibodeau, who took forever to get hired and then physically broke his whole roster, but they don’t excite me. And guys without NBA experience might be good, but I’m not taking that to the bank. That doesn’t mean you just keep Casey forever, I’m just not going to pretend like I know with any certainty that a particular available candidate will be assuredly better. This is one of those areas where a GM has reams of information that the public will never have access to.
Thompson: Jeff Van Gundy or crazy Tommy Thibs are both very good coaches. The important thing is not to hire a re-tread that was fired because he was bad. In sports, teams keep on hiring and re-hiring bad coaches just because they’ve had the job before. Worry less about the name, you know the names of most long-time NBA coaches simply because they’ve existed, not because they’re good.
Baskaran: Realistically, there aren’t a ton of guys out there that could easily step in and take on the Raptors head coaching role. Unless Masai has Tom Thibodeau or a select few others on speed dial and ready to go, it’s not exactly going to be a piece of cake bringing in a new guy mid-season. An interim assistant coach may be the way to go, and well…quite simply that’s probably just not going to do much – a temporary shakeup maybe, but not the long term answer. Other candidates include Mark Jackson, Scott Brooks, Monty Williams, or Mike D’Antoni – all guys who have a completely different philosophy than Casey and after a full training camp and early season under Casey’s system, what could those candidates really do at this point? From a pure win-loss perspective, it’s really tough to say.
Richardson: I’ve enjoyed watching Brad Stevens adapt to the NBA and new ideas he incorporates. Something simple like using your entire bench so players give 100% and your stars aren’t over taxed is working in bean town. To that end, my choice (if) the Raptors were to make a change (and again, I don’t think that would happen until season end) would be someone not already in the NBA.
Option 1: Kevin Ollie – Like Stevens, Ollie would be coming from the NCAA environment and has won a Final Four Championship. Moreover, he was an NBA player so he understands the differences in the professional game. And, it doesn’t hurt he’s closely associated with Kevin Durant, who’ll be a free agent either this summer or sign one more year in OKC and then be available in the summer of 2017.
Option 2: Find the next Steve Kerr – As far as game knowledge I lean toward Brent Barry or Kenny “the Jet” Smith as options of former players who would make good coaches.
Option 3: If MLSE won’t go for the above options – Luke Walton (hey his team is 15-0) and the Warriors aren’t suffering without Kerr, so he’s proven himself in my book and knows all the tricks of the Warriors offense/defense.
Option 4: Pilfer the best organization and make history – hire Becky Hammon from the Spurs, making her the first female coach in the NBA. (Gee, I wonder why I would suggest that option).
Taylor: Spurs assistant James Borrego. He’s learned from the master in Popovich and can bring that Spurs pedigree to the team. It worked for the Hawks on a coaching front and seeing how well schooled Cory Joseph is suggests the Raptors are wise to take whatever San Antonio will give up.
Siddiqi: Go the Brad Stevens route and get someone like Shake Smart from VCU. He’s a defense-first guy who’ll come in without any presumptions, could relate to the players on account of his age, and will grow with the team. There’ll be some growing pains, which will be completely acceptable if the team plays with enthusiasm and purity.
5. Any additional thoughts on the matter?
Murphy: Can we please stop talking about firing Casey after every single loss? Let’s at least pocket it until the Raptors have had a sustained period of poor play. Mid-season coaching hires rarely do much other than reward the wrong person for regression to the mean.
Chisholm: Casey has just overseen two of the most successful regular seasons in Raptors history. They weren’t perfect, but very few teams have perfect seasons. He has to improve in some areas, especially in the postseason, but since this is a team that should really only be judged in the postseason I’m willing to give Casey until then to prove his worthiness of continued employment. If he face-plants again, time to go, but I want to give him that shot.
Baskaran: This is probably not the best situation to be in, and don’t get me wrong, yes Dwane Casey can clearly be better – especially on the offensive end. But simply firing the guy, while providing some instant gratification and excitement for fans, really isn’t going to have the impact that a well-designed trade, a players-only meeting, or perhaps just a few lucky bounces leading to some consecutive wins, could have on the rest of our season. Let’s see where we’re at after Christmas.
Taylor: Dwayne Casey sat behind me at a Jays game last year. The fan in me wanted to rip him for his lacklustre coaching but I was drunk and pussied out. He seemed like a really good guy too.
Siddiqi: “There are risks and costs to action. But they are far less than the long range risks of comfortable inaction.” – JFK
