Fan Duel Toronto Raptors

Line-up Issues: It May Be Time To Get Weird

Looking at lineup combinations that Jonas Valanciunas's absence give rise to.

Sometimes things are going really well, then you break your hand and have to get surgery.  And sometimes basketball is a metaphor for life…but I’ll leave that for each of you to apply to yourselves.

With Jonas Valanciunas on the shelf after foregoing surgery to repair his broken hand (opting for rehab instead), the Raptors will be without their starting centre for at least the next six weeks.  In reality, I have my fears that he could be out for a good deal longer.  This opinion isn’t based on anything factual, but only in my doubt in all injury timelines provided by teams.  They aim for the absolute best case scenario and reevaluate as time passes.

It doesn’t matter at this time though, as that’s a problem to face in six (or so) weeks, but it does give the Raptors plenty of questions to answer in the meantime.

Who takes Valanciunas’ spot in the starting line-up?

What’s it like to play significant minutes with an NBA centre that doesn’t have hands?

Can Lucas Nogueira earn any minutes after a successful D-League run?

What impact, if any, does Jonas’ absence have on the long-term outlook of the franchise?

And these are just a few.  The majority of the questions moving forward are related to line-ups.  Jonas leaves a big hole (literally and metaphorically) in the Raptors line-up, using nearly 30 percent of the team’s front court minutes.

Valanciunas is the team’s fourth highest scorer, he’s the second best shot blocker, and the top rebounder.  On top of that, he is second only to cult hero James Johnson in terms of net rating (+9.4).  He is a massive loss for a team that is short on options at centre.

To date on the season the Raptors have used 50 different line-ups, the vast majority of which simply do not matter.  Only five of these line-ups have played more than 20 minutes together.

Let’s start right there: we are a mere 15 games into the season which provides an incredibly small sample size in regards to line-up data.  For this reason it’s almost impossible to take anything from line-up data at this point.

The one group that you can possibly use data to understand would be the starting line-up that has already played a total of 175 minutes together.  After all, the Raptors current starting unit would already be the third most used Raptors line-up for all of last season, behind only the following units:

  • Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Terrence Ross, Amir Johnson, and Jonas Valanciunas (390 minutes)
  • Greivis Vasquez, Lou Williams, James Johnson, Patrick Patterson, and Tyler Hansbrough (229 minutes)

Man…remember those hockey line-up changes?  Painful times indeed…

This year’s starters are on a near identically minutes track compared to last year’s group.  In fact, even if Valanciunas misses the expected 6 weeks (roughly 20 games), assuming further health (and no trades) moving forward it is entirely possible that they will still surpass last year’s starters in minutes together.

And yes, as stated earlier, line-up data at this point in the season is almost useless, but that case may be even more magnified when it comes to Valanciunas’ absence.  The most used line-up not featuring Jonas is simply the starting unit with Biyombo in his place.  This group has played a total of just 33 minutes together, 24 of which came in the last two games (including 18 minutes against the Clippers on Sunday).

Of the line-ups who have play a minimum of 20 minutes together to date, every line-up without Valanciunas has a negative net rating, the best of which (the 33 minute line-up mentioned above) has a -4.3 net rating.

(Ironically enough, Lowry, DeRozan, Carroll, and Scola have an identical -4.3 net rating with either Valanciunas or Biyombo playing centre).

For the next six weeks the Raptors will have to experiment to find any line-up that could lead to success, which means that the fate of Toronto moving forward is even more so in the hands of Dwane Casey’s rotation choices…a thought that I’m sure scares many Raptors fans who are reading this.

The Raptors also play at a slightly slower pace with Bismack (96.08 possessions per 48 minutes) on the floor than with Jonas (97.21 possessions per 40 minutes).  Increasing pace may be the team’s best option during Valanciunas’ absence, which could lead to some strange looking line-ups.  In a time of need like now though, I’m fully on board with this.

My personal favourite would be trying James Johnson at centre for at least a few minutes a game in an ultra-small line-up.  If you’re looking for fun with small sample sizes, a group featuring Lowry, Joseph, DeRozan, Carroll, and Johnson has played a grand total of one minute together this season (also on Sunday against the Clippers).

The ultimate small sample size here: this lineup has an offensive rating of 227.3, with a defensive rating of 0.0.  I’m willing to bet this isn’t sustainable (please read the sarcasm here…), but I’d at least be curious to see what Johnson could do with some additional minutes at centre.  It could limit the issues caused by his lack of floor spacing, while also providing him with a speed advantage on almost everyone at the position, while also having the weight (250lbs) and size to match other small-ball centres.

It wouldn’t be a solution for heavy minutes, but could be a good unit to experiment with.  Whatever the solution is, in my opinion it’s time to get weird.