The last time the Toronto Raptors visited the Washington Wizards, it was to get swept out of the first round of the playoffs.
That memory still haunts for some, and the capital shellacking was the impetus for plenty of offseason change for both sides. The Raptors, reeling from an embarrassing and untimely defeat, turned over four players in their nine-man rotation, changed their defensive scheme, and attempted to carve out a new identity at both ends. The Wizards, realizing the success they had with more modern playoff lineups, put more chips into the center of the table investing in that strategy.
The early returns couldn’t be more different. The Raptors are 10-6, in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and hold marquee wins in Oklahoma City, at the Clippers, and at home against LeBron James and what was, at that time, a surging Cleveland Cavaliers team. The Wizards are 6-7 and have been blown out in three consecutive games, by Indiana, Charlotte, and Boston. That’s not to say last year’s playoff series isn’t still worth shuttering about. Losses of seven, nine, seven, and 31 make it seem as if Washington, without a ton of turnover on their own, may have Toronto’s number. But the Raptors wept the regular season series last year and the Wizards lost Paul Pierce, who stands as the primary aggravator of the present day Raptors.
All of that is to say, this isn’t a rivalry game or a revenge game or anything like that. The teams are both different enough, and on divergent enough paths, that last year’s passionless series is but an afterthought and fodder for the broadcast.
The one element from that playoff series that is worth carrying over is the small-ball approach Wizards head coach Randy Wittman employed. He shifted Paul Pierce primarily to the four, unleashed Otto Porter, and dared Raptors coach Dwane Casey to match up that way. With Casey reticent to use James Johnson as a Pierce-stopper despite his being brought in exclusively for that role, and without DeMarre Carroll around to play combo-forward, the Raptors wilted. The Wizards have stuck with that approach, starting Kris Humphries and his new-found outside shot while letting Nene dominate bench units.
Somewhat surprisingly, Washington’s offense has stalled out completely as a result. Humphries has hit 36.6 percent of his threes but hasn’t contributed much otherwise, Nene is scoring efficiently but playing less than 20 minutes a game, and the wing depth – paramount when Wittman wants to shift a small forward like Porter or Jared Dudley to the four – has been thinned out with injuries to Alan Anderson and Martell Webster. Washington ranks 23rd in offense, 23rd in total rebounding, and 23rd in defense, and Wittman, who was stubborn to modernize in the first place, probably has to be considering some sort of change.
Injuries
Raptors: Delon Wright (D-League), Bruno Caboclo (D-League), Jonas Valanciunas (finger) all unavailable
Wizards: Martell Webster (hip), Alan Anderson (ankle) unavailable, Nene (calf) is out
Nene injured his left calf in Friday’s awful loss to the Celtics and confirmed after the game that he’ll sit against the Raptors. Valanciunas’ absence means no rematch of the always-fun Valanciunas-Marcin Gortat battle.
Breakdown
PG: Lowry, Joseph vs. Wall, Sessions
Oh boy oh boy oh boy oh boy. The Kyle Lowry-John Wall matchup has the potential to be a ton of fun on Saturday. Wall got the obvious upper hand in the playoffs a season ago, but Lowry was at the conclusion of a season in which he broke down pretty badly physically. Both players are healthy now, and present one of the best head-to-head battles at a position we’ve seen yet this year. Wall is an insanely fast transition nightmare, a high-end on-ball defender, and perhaps the league’s best player at creating open corner threes for teammates. Lowry is leading the league in steals, using those plays to create chaos in transition, and destroying defenses with his north-south, head-down driving style. The edge goes to the Raptors because Cory Joseph can come off the bench to help try to contain Wall (particularly when Bradley Beal sits so Lowry can check a Gary Neal or Garrett Temple), and Sessions is a pretty one-dimensional reserve.
Lowry and Wall have met on 15 regular season occasions and four times in the playoffs. Wall has the playoff sweep but Lowry is 11-4 in regular season showdowns.
| Wall | Lowry | |
| Wins | 8 | 11 |
| PPG | 19.5 | 13.7 |
| RPG | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| APG | 8.5 | 7.0 |
| SPG | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| TS% | 53.4% | 48.6% |
SG: DeRozan, Ross, Powell vs. Beal, Neal, Temple
Another really interesting matchup, as Beal represents a sort of best-case modernized DeRozan. Beal’s been open about trading his long twos for threes this year, and not surprisingly, he’s been hot fire from outside the arc. That approach has also served to keep his free-throw rate depressed, the big edge DeRozan has against him. Where Beal adds efficiency from long-range and got most of his mid-range shots off of curls and screens, DeRozan uses his mid-range game for ill-advised pull-ups that force a defense to stay tight to him, leading to a plethora of freebies. Beal is a lights-out shooter, but DeRozan is a chess player inside the arc, recognizing that the only thing better than threes are ones, and accepting his own limitations as a shooter. Both players can also distribute for teammates off the bounce and should at least challenge the other with defense. The net result is that DeRozan is scoring at a slightly more efficient rate this year, but at 22, Beal’s ultimate upside is higher.
SF: Carroll, Johnson vs. Porter, Oubre
Porter became an entirely different player in the playoffs against the Raptors and he’s maintained some of that momentum for a big step forward in 2015-16. He’s been woeful from outside, though, and he’s not crashing the offensive glass as much as he did a season ago. Carroll has the edge here and should be free to cross-match on to the toughest opposing check, save for Wall, with a weaker defender sliding on to Porter.
PF: Scola, Patterson vs. Humphries, Dudley, Gooden
Dudley should maybe be starting at this point, but I wonder if Wittman doesn’t want to go so physically small, even if the team’s already gone theoretically small. The team is 5.2 points per-100 possessions worse with Humphries on the floor, and while he’s hit 15 threes after only hitting two his entire career before this year, his rebounding is down significantly and he’s not providing anything inside the arc. Dudley represents a tough matchup for Scola but a reasonable one for Patterson, and the Raptors fours will need to hit from outside to try to keep pace with one of the league’s more shot-happy teams. Carroll should probably pencil in here, too, as the Wizards lack a real post threat at the four and really push the pace, making them an ideal candidate to go small against. Expect to see Scola at the five some.
C: Biyombo, Nogueira vs. Gortat, Blair
Gortat is a problem, a physical behemoth who can also run with the team in transition. His aggressive dives from the pick-and-roll pull defenders in and open up those Wall corner threes, and he’s willing to use his body as a defender and for rebounds. He’s also a willing and effective passer, so Biyombo will have to handle him solo to prevent Gortat from exploiting the help from the corner. That’s what Biyombo’s here for, though he also means Gortat can hang around the rim at the other end.
The Line
The Raptors are three-point favorites on the road, which is a nod to how poorly Washington is playing. With their opponent on the second night of a travel back-to-back and the Raptors having played just once in the last five days, they should have the fresh legs to kick a struggling team while they’re down.
Raptors 106, Wizards 97
