The Hornets and Raptors kick off tonight’s mini-slate of NBA games in Charlotte. While this is a winnable game for the Raptors, the Hornets are a pesky squad with a top-ten ranked offense and defense. The Hornets are without two of their best players in defensive stalwart Michael Kidd-Gilchrist who is out until at least the playoffs with a shoulder injury and big Al Jefferson, who is serving a five-game suspension for violating the league’s drug policy.
Game Day Details:
Time: 7:00 PM est
Venue: Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC
Odds: TOR -1.0, o/u 196.0
Records: Charlotte 14-10, Toronto 16-10
Things to keep an eye on:
- The Hornets play much better on their home court (10-4 home, 4-6 road).
- Both teams are coming off forgettable performances and will therefore be looking to use this game as mouthwash.
- The rest factor is very much in Toronto’s favor. Charlotte is on the back end of a back-to-back and Toronto hasn’t played since the 14th.
- Things Charlotte does well:
- Shoot the three (league rank 10): The additions of Nic Batum, Frank Kaminsky and Spencer Hawes have really helped this formerly shooting- deficient group behind the arc.
- Defend (Def. Rating 10): Despite losing one of the league’s best defenders in MKG, Charlotte is a surprisingly stout defensive team. On paper they’re void of rim protectors but so far they’ve done a better job than any team in the league at preventing shot attempts from six feet or less (27.9% frequency per nba.com/stats). So, while they don’t necessarily have amazing defenders at the rim, they do a good job of keeping guys away from the bucket.
- Protect the basketball: The Hornets turn the ball over less than anyone in the league.
- Stay out of foul trouble: They also foul less than anyone in the league. This could have something to do with the fact they’re so adept at funneling shots away from the rim.
- Things Charlotte does poorly:
- Rebound: The Hornets are 24th in the league in rebounding and dead last in offensive rebounds. It’s too bad Jonas isn’t playing because he would’ve absolutely feasted on the glass tonight.
- Getting to the line: They’re near the bottom of the league at getting to the charity stripe.
- Create steals: They’re 25th in the league in steals per game but it doesn’t really matter since they turn the ball over so rarely.
Key Match-ups:
Lowry vs. Kemba: This one is going to be fun. Both guys are slightly undersized and tenacious as hell. The Raptors and Hornets (Bobcats) split the series last season. When Kemba played well Charlotte won, when he didn’t they lost.
DeRozan vs. Hairston: Hairston left last night’s game with a sore right foot, leaving him questionable for tonight’s matchup. In addition to frequently making poor life decisions, he’s also pretty mediocre at basketball. If Hairston doesn’t play Jeremy Lamb and Jeremy Lin will likely see an increased workload. No matter how you slice it, this matchup favors DeMar. The only concern here is that Charlotte doesn’t foul often and they’re good at keeping guys away from the rim. If DeMar is baited into a number of long twos, it could be a frustrating night for Raptor fans.
Ross vs. Batum: DeMarre traveled with the team on this road trip but it’s reportedly “highly unlikely” that he’ll play. Batum, who’s essentially a swiss army knife in the form of a basketball player, has arguably been Charlotte’s best player this season. He is questionable for tonight’s matchup however, after exiting last night’s matchup early with an illness. If Batum doesn’t play it’s a huge boon for the Raptors as Charlotte will miss his scoring and the cornucopia of other goodies that he brings to the court.
Scola vs. Marvin Williams: This is a fairly even matchup of two skilled-but-never-going-to-wow-you glue players. Marvin Williams is having a pretty nifty little season, having markedly improved his scoring, rebounding and three point shooting from last season. Let’s call this one a draw.
Biyombo vs. Cody Zeller: Clash of the titans here, folks. Both teams are without their starting center. Bismack is the better defender, although Zeller is actually pretty solid despite his little velociraptor arms, and Zeller is better on offense. Zeller rebounds about as well as Tom Brady dances, averaging a paltry 3.4 rebounds as a starter over the last five games. I don’t know, this matchup goes to neither team.
Prediction:
If Batum doesn’t play this one almost certainly goes to Toronto. Even if he does, I’m picking the well-rested Raptors.
