The Toronto Raptors visit the Cleveland Cavaliers for a 7 p.m. tip-off on most but not all of the Sportsnet channels, because television stations are weird. It’s a good Raptors team against LeBron James and the top team in the East, how is this not across-the-board viewing? Maybe they’re keeping Sportsnet West open to shuffle things around in case Jonathan Drouin injures a feeling again or something.
In any case, the Raptors come in a bit tired, having blown one against the Chicago Bulls in Toronto on Sunday. The Cavs are well-rested. Let’s hit some bullets.
DeMarre Carroll is out, possibly for more than just one game
Carroll will sit Monday with a swollen right knee. That’s something I predicted might happen in the pre-game post. Here’s what I wrote:
Despite the great Lowry-Irving matchup being a must-see one every time out and a battle for the starting point guard spot in the East for the All-Star Game, the biggest story to me is DeMarre Carroll. He’s been painfully open that he’s not 100 percent, and guarding James at anything less than 100 percent is a terrifying thought. Carroll did a fine job back in November and looked like he had found his footing earlier this week, but if he can’t do the things he wants to do on defense, it might be worth considering sitting him down again.
I know, I’m not a doctor. Maybe he’s fine playing through it and there isn’t risk of further injury. We can never really assume to know the best course of action for a player’s health. But in Carroll’s case, with the amount of time he’s had off, to still not be at 100 percent…he’s too important to what this team hopes to do in April to force him to fight through this now. After Saturday, the Raptors play just once in eight days, so he’s set for a bit of (physical) rest anyway, but on the second night of a back-to-back, going Butler-to-James, I’d consider maybe sitting him down Monday.
It’s probably a loss, anyway, so it’s not a bad night for it.
Considering how open Carroll was about not being able to do the things he wants to do on Sunday, this is probably for the best.
Carroll said combo of Raptors believing he was putting himself at risk of more harm playing way he does and him not happy at 65% production
— Ryan Wolstat (@WolstatSun) January 4, 2016
Carroll’s been in and out of the lineup with foot and knee injuries, averaging 32 minutes in his 23 appearances and putting up 11.7 points on 38.8-percent shooting. Were it not for his 37.8-percent mark from outside, his offense would grade out quite poorly, as his effectiveness off the ball and on cuts has waned quite dramatically. Defensively, he’s still come mostly as advertised, but he’s labored a great deal. The Raptors are 5.5 points per-100 possessions better without him on the floor this year. They need him at 100 percent, and sitting him down for more than just one game may be the prudent move.
Carroll wouldn't say how long he's out but he's frustrated. Feels like a longer term thing. #raptors
— Chris O'Leary (@olearychris) January 4, 2016
Here’s some additional reading on Carroll from Josh Lewenberg of TSN.
While Terrence Ross has been the first wing off the bench and playing quite well, it will probably be James Johnson who starts in Carroll’s stead. Johnson is a much more physical presence and capable defender opposite James, and the Raptors surely don’t want to task DeMar DeRozan with that job. Johnson has done a decent job opposite James in the past, and while the usual caveats apply about Johnson’s shooting, off-ball defense, and occasional overzealousness with the ball, he’s a quality player who should be playing a bit more, particularly in situations like these.
UPDATE: James Johnson starts.
Some end-of-month news things
DeRozan did not win Eastern Conference Player of the Month. He wasn’t even given an honorable mention. And then he was given an honorable mention. Such awards don’t really mean anything – “I be forgetting all about it, honestly,” DeRozan told me yesterday – but if you want to get upset about the snub, by all means, do so here. For what it’s worth, John Wall won the award and had a terrific month himself, and there really wasn’t a wrong choice between the two. Or LeBron James, who didn’t get an honorable mention because he obviously sucks.
You know who did get an honorable mention? Dwane Casey, for East Coach of the Month. Again. He’s been much better than you give him credit for.
Injury Updates: Cavaliers
LeBron James was dealing with an illness on Sunday – I put ipecac in his orange juice – but he’ll play Monday. Kevin Love was also under the weather but is playing. Joe Harris is questionable due to a right foot injury and also questionable as an NBA roster player.
With everyone going, the rotation will look something like this:
PG: Kyrie Irving, Matthew Dellavedova, Mo Williams, Jared Cunningham
SG: J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, (Harris)
SF: James, James Jones
PF: Love, Richard Jefferson
C: Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov, Anderson Varejao, Sasha Kaun
Rotation Update: Raptors
Nobody has been assigned to the D-League, Anthony Bennett’s back soreness doesn’t seem to matter much, and DeMarre Carroll is out. The rotation will probably look something like this:
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Delon Wright
SG: DeRozan, Ross, Norman Powell
SF: Johnson, Bruno Caboclo
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, (Bennett)
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo, Lucas Nogueira
Key Matchup
The other key matchup now that Carroll-James is out is between two point guards battling for the starting spot in the Eastern Conference. Fan voting has Irving ahead of Lowry and I’m told from Fear the Sword followers that Irving is way more fun. I don’t want Cavaliers fans to have nice things, so I kind of want Irving to NOT be the starter more than I even care that Lowry IS the starter. Here’s how they’ve done head-to-head in seven meetings (yes, seven, because Irving is made of delicious peanut brittle):
Irving, by the way, is still on a minutes cap that’s seen him top out at 27 minutes so far in his return. That’s expected to be lifted soon, and he could be in the mix for 30 on Monday.
The Line
The line has held steady most of the day at Cavaliers -8. I’ve seen it nudge to 7.5 in some places, but for the most part, everyone’s in agreement that the Cavs will probably win this low-scoring game by a few possessions. Sixty-three percent of the action is on the Raptors with the points, mind you, and the over-under has been bid up from 192 to 194. Offense, baby!
Anyway, this all seems reasonable and the Raptors will probably lose. Or not, because they’re a weird team that does weird things like beat the best team in the conference on the second night of a back-to-back. If we knew, we wouldn’t watch. Good drama, this whole basketball thing. Anyway, check out the abbreviated game preview here (sorry, I filled in on short notice), and check me on the Fear the Sword podcast for more.
