The Toronto Raptors take on the Brooklyn Nets at 7:30 p.m. on TSN. After the day Raptors fans have had, I’d be surprised if anyone cared much for the game, except for the distraction it provides and, hopefully, getting some semblance of reassurance that the Raptors will be fine without DeMarre Carroll.
DeMarre Carroll out indefinitely. Again.
Because oh yeah, DeMarre Carroll underwent arthroscopic knee surgery Wednesday and is out indefinitely, with reports pegging his return date at around eight weeks. Everything you need to know can be found here, but allow me a tl;dr: This is probably OK. So long as Carroll has enough time to get back to form by the playoffs, nothing has changed for the Raptors. The measuring stick was never going to be the regular season and they should be able to get to the playoffs without him. The timing is also pretty good. The Raptors have the Nets, Wizards, and 76ers this week, then play one game in an eight-day stretch, then have a seven-game hom-estand, and the All-Star Break comes shortly after that.
There are costs, though. It costs the Raptors a chance at building greater chemistry. It may cost them a couple of spots in the standings and even home-court advantage in the first-round of the playoffs. It’s probably going to put an even greater burden on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Those are legitimate concerns, and the Raptors would be hard-pressed to make a panic trade work even if it were the prudent route (it’s probably not).
Everyone is entirely justified being frustrated or worried or playing the what-if game, but the sky isn’t quite falling.
More on Carroll
From Michael Grange of Sportsnet:
No one knows what happens next. Early indications are that there were no surprises found in the procedure and there’s some internal optimism that Carroll will be available to return in advance of the playoffs.
If he’s out for eight weeks that would still give him six weeks to get up to speed and the Raptors to acclimatize themselves to a player who was supposed to be part of the foundation but so far has only been a shadow of himself.
From Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun (please note that Wolstat is the only person, no matter how tied in, suggesting Carroll could be done for the year):
There are murmurs around the league that this, combined with the plantar fasciitis he also had been dealing with and scarring from previous issues, could end Carroll’s season. But the Raptors are quietly confident he will return before the playoffs, which could limit any compensatory wheeling and dealing to make up for his absence.
And here’s Lowry, from Wolstat’s piece:
He won’t be out for the year…It’s disappointing because he feels like he could have gotten it done and taken care of. But he’s a soldier, so I think he’s going to rehab strong and get back to normal quickly. For now, we’ve just got to hold it down. It’s not the first year we’ve had to deal with injuries.
Fallout
James Johnson will draw the start in Carroll’s place again Wednesday but head coach Dwane Casey said that could be fluid, with T.J. Ross potentially mixing in. Here’s my abbreviated take from the big Carroll post:
In terms of who starts going forward, I’d personally play the matchups, but Casey seems unlikely to do that. The prudent move would be to start Johnson opposite any capable wing scorer, particularly bigger ones, giving DeRozan a reprieve at that end, while starting Ross against lesser offensive players to goose the team’s own offense.
You know what? Just go read that whole thing. It’s nails, and I don’t want to rehash it here. Count me out on the weird conspiracy or medical neglect stuff, though, you’re all on your own for that.
Anyway, with Carroll out and nobody assigned to the D-League, here’s what we’re looking at for a rotation:
PG: Lowry, Cory Joseph, Delon Wright
SG: DeRozan, Ross, Norman Powell
SF: James Johnson, Bruno Caboclo
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, (Anthony Bennett)
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo, Lucas Nogueira
Here’s Casey on the injury and the fallout:
Here’s Johnson on the opportunity:
The Nets are bad
Even with all the gloom today, things aren’t so bad tonight. The Nets are brutal. Check out the game preview for more.
If Joe Johnson doesn't play tonight, Nets will have NO lineup combinations with 20+ minutes together and a positive net rating.
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) January 6, 2016
Joe Johnson was questionable with a left quad strain he suffered Monday but will play, so at least the Nets have one mildly functional five-man unit to lean on. Jarrett Jack (torn ACL), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (fractured ankle), and Chris McCullough (torn ACL) remain sidelined. The rotation will look something like this:
PG: Shane Larkin, Donald Sloan
SG: Bojan Bogdanovic, Markel Brown
SF: Johnson, Wayne Ellington, Sergey Karasev
PF: Thad Young, Thomas Robinson, Willie Reed
C: Brook Lopez, Andrea Bargnani
That one slightly non-disaster lineup is a Larkin–Johnson-Young-Lopez look, by the way.
Blake is worse
Seriously, f*** me, right? I mean, ignore all evidence, but f*** me.
The Line
The line has mostly stayed Raptors -6.5 or Raptors -7, with the over-under bumping from 196 to 196.5 and then, as predicted, down to 195. These teams play slow, so even Brooklyn’s porous defense shouldn’t make it a shoot-out (I called 101-91 Raptors in my preview). Sixty-five percent of the action is on the Raptors at seven points.
