Hump Day Ramblings: Markieff Morris and Al Horford

Possible acquisitions at the four spot

It seems too coincidental that a player like Markieff Morris – a player who’s struggled this season and is playing within a discombobulated team – all of a sudden turns in one of his best performances of the season against the Raptors who are a team that could use his skill-set in a void that they’ve yet to properly fill.

Last night was a prime example of showcasing. If Suns executive Ryan McDonough is looking to move Morris – which he undoubtedly is, as Morris wants no part of the organization – then no one will be happier with Morris’ performance last night than he, apart from maybe Morris himself who has wanted to set sail from the sinking ship in Phoenix for 7 months now.

Morris would fill a void in a glaring hole that the Raptors have – the four spot. As things currently stand, the Raptors are quite pleased with Luis Scola’s play this season. His ability to stretch the floor and craftiness around the basket has exceeded expectations – so much so that he’s taken the starting spot from Patrick Patterson who was expected to run away with it. Patterson started the season severely under-performing and bereft of confidence – something that’s changed for the better in the past couple months which has seen his point production and shooting percentage both rise. He’s done enough now to earn himself a starting role, and a Scola – Patterson swap in the rotation could create fresh change and fix some first quarter problems. Yes, the Raptors have a really solid record, but they could get off to better starts. Currently, the Raptors’ starting line-up (With either James Johnson or DeMarre Carroll at the three), has a negative net-rating. Inserting Patterson might not dramatically fix the problem, but it would provide a better perimeter defender in the starting unit against starting stretch-bigs. Scola has been horrid dealing with those.

In order to keep a level head, we need to examine every angle. Morris’ performance last night was not the epitome of his season, and you might have a case to say the Raptors would be better off trying Patterson as the starting four instead of gambling on Morris.

Capture

Morris and Patterson are nearly identical – statistically anyway. Forget that they’re the same age – there is enough data to suggest that sticking with Patterson and moving him as your starting power forward would be the more sound move. With Patterson, you get the same numbers without the added baggage that Morris might bring, and you do it without tinkering with team chemistry. Both Patterson and Morris play the same amount of minutes, and Morris scores about four more points per game. This probably is correlated with Morris being a more focal point of his team’s offense than Patterson is. Per NBA.com, Morris has a 26.1 USG%, while Patterson’s mark is way lower at 13.3. Patterson also shoots more efficiently from three and turns the ball over roughly twice less per game.

The counter to this argument is that Morris is in a cancerous environment and not playing to his full potential. Phoenix is a mess right now, and Morris has wanted out since June – and his numbers reflect that. Last season Morris was a different animal, averaging 15.3 points while shooting 46.5%. He was also surrounded by better players, which helped. Last season, Morris was pretty good at posting up from either side – either going inside or pulling up from the mid-range. Smaller power forwards especially have difficulty stopping him in that area. Outside, Morris doesn’t really stretch the floor, which, in a weird way might be a good thing. He doesn’t command much respect out there despite shooting the three last season at just over 30% – hovering around the same clip that Patterson currently does.

Perhaps it could also be argued that, based on the eye-test alone, Morris has more upside and more weapons in his arsenal than Patterson does. It’s hard to measure these intangibles, but Morris does have more highlight-reel moves and put-back dunks, and his 30 points last night were three more than Patterson’s career-high of 27.

It’s difficult to say how negative Morris’ baggage would be too. He once threw a towel at Jeff Hornacek for being yanked from the game, then got suspended two games, and then came back and apologized. Kyle Lowry and James Johnson came to Toronto with baggage too, but they’re both well-liked in these parts. Lowry and Morris also have personal ties and worked out together in the off-season. Morris also likes Lowry. That alone may be enough to dismantle any pre-conceived idea that there would be team chemistry issues if Morris was acquired. Anyway, if the Raptors were better on the court and won a playoff round or two, would anybody really mind if the Raptors didn’t get along behind the scenes?

Interesting perspective from Stan Van Gundy in Josh Lewenberg’s article from a couple days ago:

“I don’t think it’s a big deal, to be honest,” Van Gundy said, speaking generally and not specific to the Raptors. “I’ve seen and been around, been a part of staffs with great teams who got along really well and great teams who didn’t get along all that great off the court.  There are two separate things. I mean, I definitely think you need a chemistry, but it’s a chemistry on the floor.”

“A lot of guys can become great friends off the floor and get to a point they don’t want to challenge each other on the floor and everything,” he continued. “We’re in a business here and coaches, players alike, everyone’s been hired to get a result. When you lose sight of that, doesn’t matter. You can be the greatest friends in the world but if you’re not out there doing what it takes to get the result then you don’t have chemistry, you just have friendship.”

Phoenix is desperate, Toronto is not. Masai has all kinds of leverage in a potential trade scenario if this actually went down.

… So, what was that about Al Horford in the title?

He’s not on the block or anything, but a report from Mark Spears on Monday indirectly hinted at something, I think. From that same article, Al Horford makes his future pretty ambiguous.

“Atlanta has the potential for a guy like myself to maximize [the business] part of it,” Horford told Yahoo Sports. “But obviously there are other cities, bigger cities that are more appealing probably [business- and marketing-wise]. The impact would be bigger if that is what you are looking for.”

The Hawks clearly want to resign Al Horford in the off-season. His contract expires, and while the Hawks have his bird rights, they have absolutely no guarantee that they won’t lose him for nothing, hence, are reportedly listening to offers. That’s not really news, of course. GMs answer calls all the time, but it gets a bit more real when there is a chance Atlanta might get nothing in return if he walks, rendering them a bit more active in acquiring something for Horford in return before the trade deadline.

Horford has long been requesting to move back to his power forward position, so that’s why he would be a great fit for the Raptors. De facto, Horford would on paper make the Raptors and instant finals contender. There are so many issues with taking a high-risk / high-reward road with the Atlana big-man, though. First, Horford would basically be a rental. The Raptors could re-sign him and it wouldn’t be a huge deal, but they’re not guaranteed in doing that, and given the huge assets you’d have to give away, cashing out on a huge win now move is ubber-risky.

The Hawks would probably want Valanciunas in return, and that is of course a gamble not worth taking, and it would defeat the purpose anyway, as it would then slot Horford in as the Raptors’ starting center. But if the Raptors can give up Patterson, James Johnson, a first-round pick, and one or two of Bebe/Bruno/Powell/Wright/Bennett – I think you pull the trigger.

The Raptors are on the brink of something here, have arguably their best team of all time, and won’t have many other opportunities to make a run at a finals appearance that are better than this. Chances are that none of the Raptors’ first-round picks will develop into a player as good as Horford has become, and the Raps’ have plenty of young blood and picks anyway. Horford has become better at stretching the floor this season, and would immediately make an impact.

Also consider this: Yes, reports are coming out that the Warriors could be a landing spot for Kevin Durant – which gives me a headache just to think about – but how enticed would Durant be to join a team like this, knowing he would be the alpha-dog of the best team in the Eastern Conference?

C: Valanciunas
PF: Horford
SF: Durant
SG: DeRozan
PG: Lowry

No, this isn’t PlayStation, but yes, that line-up would be enough to keep an opponent up at night.

Let’s take a crack at this.

Capture

Atlanta might not even consider this, but they probably would if you throw in a first round pick (preferably the Clippers pick). And of course, they would only even remotely think about it if they know there’s a huge chance of Horford walking this summer.

Knowingly, there will be some roasting in the comments regarding this idea. Two young assets and a first round pick for a rental? Seems insane, no doubt. But there is a window here to make a run that might not exist for quite some time. Masai has played his cards cautiously so far during his tenure in Toronto, and, quite frankly, it would be fun to make a move like this and just go for it.

On a side note, these ‘Hump Day Ramblings’ are going to be a weekly column. Somehow, I convinced Blake to let me do this (thanks dawg). The issue is this: I hate the name. It’s awful, and super lame. I’m down for taking any suggestions on what to call this weekly (Wednesdays) thing. Zarar has ‘ArseTalk’, and that’s pretty dope. I need a dope name for this too. If you have any ideas, give me a shout. For now, you’ll have to live with the lame title until we can find something better.