With the exception of, perhaps, a few outrageously optimistic fans, it seems safe to say that the Toronto Raptors have exceeded most pre-season expectations so far this year. They are cemented in place as the second-best team in the east, with the only uncertainty coming from the possibility that they might catch a destabilized Cleveland team before the regular season is out.
They are within spitting distance of every team that isn’t having an historic, once-in-a-generation season (a description that, paradoxically, applies to two clubs this year), and they are playing the kind of consistent, convincing basketball that no Toronto Raptors club has ever played for such a long stretch of time. While they haven’t abolished the memory of their unceremonious sweep from last year’s playoffs (only their play in April and beyond can do that), they have done as much to distance themselves from it as a team can 51 games into the season.
They are on the kind of roll where, if you are a superstitious person, you are actually made somewhat nervous, lest some unseen force derail their game-to-game cohesion. Their on-court chemistry is sublime, led by the increasingly-telepathic interplay between Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. They play with the kind of anticipatory elegance that can only come from a combination of familiarity and a total dedication to the game plan set out by their head coach. They’ve even managed to withstand injuries to multiple key rotation players and the early-season struggles of key reserves Terrence Ross and Patrick Patterson.
So given all of that, why does it seem like the Raptors are attached to trade scenarios involving every power forward on the market? Because as good as they are, they aren’t great yet, and it’s hard to truly believe that this exact group will ever be great, and so, hence, the rumours.
Many in Raptor-land are quick to dismiss the rumours because Masai Ujiri’s Raptors don’t leak rumours. That’s immaterial here. The rumours have legs because most understand that as good as these Raptors are, they still need help to get to the heights that they are clamouring to reach. They know that they are prone to scoring droughts, or bouts of lackadaisical play. They know that they are too reliant on just two players, regardless of how the whole functions when fully healthy. They can hope that those things won’t cost them in the playoffs, but after the team sat idle a year ago and got creamed by Washington, they also know that sitting out this deadline is a significant risk to take.
The issue at hand is trying to assess how badly the Raptors need help. It’s an issue because any time you mess with chemistry, even when you’re just swapping out secondary pieces, it can have a tremendous ripple effect. Remember Indiana back in 2014, when they sent out a barely-mobile Danny Granger and brought in Evan Turner, only to see their entire team psyche crumble in the aftermath? It was like an east contender was put to rest overnight. So even if they Raptors are able to parlay Patterson, picks and maybe James Johnson into Markieff Morris, Kenneth Faried or whomever, they have to weigh a lot more than a simple talent swap.
It’s a position that this organization has never been in before. There have been seasons, like last year and 2010, when they had stellar records heading into All-Star Weekend but the cracks had already begun to form. Retrospect would suggest that there would have been only positives to come from stemming the downward spiral with a trade, but the teams stood pat and crumbled. They’ve also had seasons, like 2001, where they knew that they had players that didn’t fit despite the team’s solid play and they decided to make big trades, since they knew the veteran core could probably keep the team from tripping over the changes.
This team, however, hasn’t demonstrated real cracks, they just have the same little niggles that just about every good team has (and they’ve done well to cover them up most nights). They’re also not employing the same calibre of stabilizing veterans like Antonio Davis, Charles Oakley or Dell Curry. They are a relatively young team playing beautifully harmonious basketball, and bringing in a major new piece (because it isn’t worth the risk for a seventh-or-eighth-man) could significantly rock the boat.
So the question remains, do you risk letting the deadline pass, allowing for the possibility that this team still isn’t equipped to do real damage in the postseason, or do you risk attempting to make an upgrade, allowing for the possibility that it totally undoes the cohesion that the team is playing with?
Keep in mind, a midseason trade by a good team can go well. In January and February, 2001, the Raptors unloaded eight players, brought in Jerome Williams, Keon Clark and Chris Childs, and saw their ability to compete in the postseason immediately improve.
Whichever route Ujiri chooses to go down, he risks making the most divisive move in his Raptors tenure. To date, he’s played it very safe, and has maybe even offered a hint of how this deadline will play out with his general predisposition towards maintaining the status quo.
For me, I think he should go for it. I’m going to ignore the lazy rejoinder about it depending on the player coming back, as if that isn’t so plainly obvious it should go without saying (Ujiri’s track record should at least stand for itself when it comes to talent evaluation). I think that this team is, refreshingly, forward-facing. Too many past iterations of the Raptors have been obsessed with their own history, their own past failures or desertions. This team is all about what comes next, about how to get better and win more.
This team is very good, but this season offers a potential window that simply might not be there a year from now. There is a lot of instability in the eastern conference and the Raptors look like the one squad that is drama-free heading into the home stretch. While this current assemblage making it into the second round would count as an improvement, this season seems to be offering a pathway to more. It’s true that iterative improvement has brought them to this place, and a pragmatic plan might be to keep iterating and see where that takes you. Sometimes, though, you have to seize opportunities, and this season is an opportunity that I think the Raptors should be aggressively seizing.
Of course, there is no recourse for me if I’m wrong.
