The Litmus Test:
Even before the champagne had dried in the visitor’s locker room last June the Cavaliers had already been anointed as the eventual 2016 Eastern Conference finalists. Little occurred to sway this thought process over the summer as owner Dan Gilbert dug into the coffers providing David Griffin with the funds required to re-sign, and some would say over pay the Cavs’ core.
Although Cleveland have managed to overcome multiple injuries to remain atop the East, their season has been anything but smooth sailing. David Blatt was fired at the end of January leading many to question LeBron James role in his dismissal. In spite of the King’s objections it was clear James and Blatt’s relationship never melded and was on a collision course. Further, team chemistry was under constant ridicule mostly due to intermittent social commentary by the players themselves.
Also telling was Cleveland’s rumored interest in a number of players at the deadline. Although it could be simple gossip, the Cavs were mentioned in more trade scenario’s than any other team, Even Houston who was on a desperate mission to trade Dwight Howard wasn’t named as often as Cleveland. Suffice to say, ‘where there’s smoke, there is fire’.
Cleveland have the highest salary (by more than $10 million), but were actively looking to tweak their roster. They added Channing Frye and are rumored to be one of several teams (including the Raptors) interested in acquiring the recently released Joe Johnson (Blake’s full article on Johnson situation). For a team with such depth of talent why is it they seem to still be searching for answers? And, while there is no question they have ‘it’, apparently there is uncertainty whether they have enough of ‘it’.
https://twitter.com/RussJohnsonNBA/status/702964088285036546
Perhaps they have succumbed to believing no one can beat the Warriors and are acting in concert to resolve that issue. Certainly their comments post Frye acquisition were of a much more confident nature citing the fact Frye would be perfect in the Warrior match-up. Yet, that comment for me proved how laser focused they are on Golden State. To be over looking their competition isn’t wise, just ask the 07 Mavericks!
Conversely, the Raptors limped off the court last April, having been humiliated by a series sweep in devastating blow-out fashion. Many wondered how deep the roster cuts would be, and pondered if their playoff failure could be the catalyst for a full on reset. Instead, Masai Ujiri chose to stick with core constancy and target reinforcements with grit and character. His primary target was signed (DeMarre Carroll), and depth was added via economical signings of Cory Joseph, Bismack Biyombo and Luis Scola.
Although built in very different fashions the teams enter tonight’s game as the best of the Eastern Conference. They have each beaten the other on their home court and were each missing vital contributors in their wins.
Sources: Former Net Joe Johnson is heavily considering joining the Cavaliers, Heat and Hawks. Celtics and Thunder are close behind for now.
— Michael Scotto (@MikeAScotto) February 25, 2016
Since Blatt’s firing, the Cavalier’s appear to be improving on and off the court. The one significant area they still need to improve is on defense and perhaps that’s why they haven’t succeeded in building a wider gap between themselves and Toronto. Perhaps most surprising is how little separates these two teams from a nuts and bolts perspective, Sure there is the $35.9 million salary difference, but the number 3 is all that matters to Toronto. That’s the number by which they trail the Cavs.
To that end, tonight is a litmus test offering an opportunity to gauge how the teams align (notably sans Carroll), and it offers some leverage on the team the Raptors are chasing. Neither a win or loss can be taken too seriously, put in context this is 1 of 82. Having said that, a solid performance would definitely go a long way to building the Raptors confidence, and could add a few cracks to the foundation of their opponent.
Without Carroll it will be difficult to decipher exactly how close these two teams truly are, but every opportunity the Raptors get to learn more about Cleveland will provide them with invaluable measuring stick data.
With that, let’s look at the particulars:
Game Details:
Venue: Air Canada Center, Toronto, Ontario
Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: Sportsnet One and FSOhio
Radio:TSN Radio 1050 Toronto, WTAM 1100 / 100.7 WM, Sirius: 207(Internet H:907/A:885)
Walking wounded:
Cavaliers:
- Mo Williams: knee – remained in Cleveland for the Cavs 2 game road trip he’s targeting a February 29th return
- Iman Shumpert: shoulder – is listed as questionable for tonight
Raptors:
- DeMarre Carroll – knee, (arthroscopic surgery), out until at least Mar 15
As per rotoworld and CBS Sports
Projected rotation:
Cavaliers:
Point Guard: Kyrie Irving, Matthew Dellavedova
Shooting Guard: JR Smith, James Jones
Small Forward: LeBron James, Richard Jefferson
Power Forward: Kevin Love, Channing Frye
Center: Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov, Sasha Kaun
Raptors:
Point Guard: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Delon Wright
Shooting Guard: DeMar DeRozan, Terrence Ross, Norman Powell
Small Forward: James Johnson
Power Forward: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, Anthony Bennett
Center: Jonas Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo, Lucas Nogueira
https://twitter.com/LeBronJames/status/703122048390836224
Game Notes:
- The Raptors haven’t lost at home since January 3rd (Bulls: when Butler went off in second half for 40)
- Winning: Toronto is on a 17 of 20 win stretch, and the Cavs have won 11 of 14 since Tyronn Lue took over
- While most assume the Cavs are predominantly better behind the arc (10th: 35.8%) the truth is the Raptors hold the better percentage (3rd: 36.6%) and were lights out in January shooting over 40%.
- Kevin Love needs just five more 3 pointers to reach 700 which could place him in a field of his own: 700 career 3-pointers and 10 rebounds per game average.
- Tonight will be DeMar DeRozan’s 500th Raptors game. A milestone only 3 other players have reached: Mo Peterson, Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon
- Kyle Lowry needs two three pointers to tie Andrea Bargnani for second all-time (579). Morris Peterson is first (801)
- As per nba.com DeRozan (24.3 points per game) and James (23.7 points per game ) lead the Eastern Conference in scoring since January 1st.
- Not convinced DeRozan has improved beyond the arc? He’s shooting 44.4% since January 1st (24 of 54)
- Cory Joseph continues to be a factor in the Raptors bench improvement as well as the team in late game scenarios. He’s posted double digits in 11 of his last 13 games averaging 12.1 points while shooting 53.8% from the field.
Comparison:
When you peel back the layers to examine the stats it’s surprising how little separates these two teams. Other than one key area each, the teams are separated by 1.0 to 1.5 units in the major categories on both ends of the court..
The obvious areas the teams excel and hold advantages over each other aren’t surprising: Cleveland generate almost 4 more assists per game due to enhanced ball movement whereas the Raptors get to the line more. To isolate further differences you have to work from a smaller sample size. Looking at the past 3 games Cleveland have significantly higher fast break points (17.0 – 7.3) and the Raptors dominate points in the paint (51.3 – 39.3): Since the Cavaliers had a tougher schedule over this period playing the Thunder, Pistons and Hornets vs the Grizzlies, Knicks and Wolves for the Raptors it could be rationalized the opponent is the reason for the separation in data. That said, the Raptors hold a significant advantage in terms of intangibles like blocks, steals and energy plays.
To demonstrate how closely the two teams are aligned check out the chart courtesy of nba.com above.
Three keys to the win:
Defensive Focus: The Raptors know they win when they hold teams under 100 points, but the Cavaliers average just over 103 per game and they’ve increased their pace since the Blatt firing (and since the last time the Raptors played them). The obvious way to compete in this match-up will be a commitment on the defensive end of the floor. Toronto need to let the defense dictate the game’s direction and allow their offense to build from the what the defense gives them. Recently Toronto’s ball and player movement has been much improved, but it’s important not to get into a run and gun game with Cleveland as they are more predisposed to succeed in that style.
Team Ball: In yesterday’s presser Casey kept referring to not getting trapped in the ‘accordion effect’. What he’s referring to is running amok on the court trying to close the paint and then hedge out on the perimeter to the detriment of doing neither well. The best bet would be to make sure to address transition first as Cleveland are strong on the fast break. Pick up a body in transition and then work on a string (similar to the Spurs defensive method) between the paint and the three point line. If the Raptors work in concert they should be able to limit paint penetration and allow themselves enough space and time to respond quickly to Cleveland’s perimeter shooting.
Attention to detail: Obviously the Cavaliers are loaded with talent extending deep into their reserves. Therefore remaining focused on the little things will be important. Boxing out, rebounding, diving for loose balls etc. Staying out of foul trouble will be another key area the Raptors must focus on as it’s cost them in the past vs the Cavs. Since they aren’t as deep they need their core players to be smart and not foul, which is easier said then done when trying to also defend at the highest level.
Every little edge the Raptors can get is vital, including the type of message they send Cleveland. Both games versus Cleveland have been chippy, so Toronto need to make sure to show the Cavs they aren’t afraid of them. Regardless of who comes away with the “W” the Raptors need to make sure Cleveland leave Toronto knowing the Raptors aren’t afraid of them.
The line:
The Cavaliers are favored by 1.5 points which in essence is double that given the home court advantage the Raptors hold. The over- under is 208 points with
early action slightly favoring Cleveland to cover.
https://twitter.com/RussJohnsonNBA/status/703070195129176064
(as per above tweet: seriously is there ANYONE the Cavs aren’t interested in?)
In Closing:
Tonight is the 57th game for both teams with the Cavaliers holding a 3 game margin over the Raptors. As both teams prepare for the home stretch into the post season their goal is to gain cohesiveness, strength, fluidity, confidence and above all to enter healthy.
Kyle Lowry has led the way in both games versus the Cavaliers, but the Raptors will need a full team effort if they wish to replicate their November 4th victory.
Looking back at all the numbers above, the one that stuck with me is the additional $36 million Cleveland has spent on their roster compared to Toronto. In fact that overage is more than half the Raptors complete salary. Sure feels like a David versus Goliath situation, especially if Johnson ends up in Cleveland as well. In spite of the disparity there is something to be said for the Raptors chemistry and how they function as a unit both on and off the court. Chemistry isn’t a commodity that can be purchased and at the end of the day It may well be the x-factor the Raptors can use to their advantage.
The game is sure to draw plenty of views from the die-hard fans as well as the casual given it’s LeBron, the top Eastern team who sit directly in front of us and the team the Raptors would need to beat in all likelihood should they do the unthinkable and reach the Conference Finals.
For all who’ll gather to watch tonight, let’s hope for a dog fight from start to finish with that little x-factor of chemistry being the difference.
