“They have our number,” Kyle Lowry said, summing up the Toronto Raptors’ nine-game losing streak against the Chicago Bulls succinctly.
There’s really no other way to put it than that when one team continually loses to the other, regardless of perceived talent or home court or injury status. It would be one thing if Chicago were beating Toronto with both sides at full health, in games that provided qualitative reasoning for why they hold such an edge. That hasn’t really been the case – the pattern hasn’t been entirely random, but there’s been some appreciable variance (hi, Doug McDermott), and the two sides have rarely played at full strength.
As a refresher, here are some quick notes from the four meetings this season.
Dec. 28, Toronto 97 @ Chicago 104
Out: Jonas Valanciunas, Joakim Noah, Mike Dunleavy
Notes: Derrick Rose turns back clock, Bobby Portis bullies Patrick Patterson, Aaron Brooks goes off, uncharacteristically awful game for the Raptors’ bench.
Jan. 3, Chicago 115 @ Toronto 113
Out: Jonas Valanciunas, Joakim Noah, Mike Dunleavy
Notes: Jimmy Butler is literally Michael Jordan for a half, DeMarre Carroll gets convinced to undergo surgery the following day, Luis Scola and Nikola Mirotic trade a lot of unguarded buckets.
Feb. 19, Toronto 106 @ Chicago 116
Out: DeMarre Carroll, Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah
Notes: Derrick Rose turns back clock again, Pau Gasol is literally Arvydas Sabonis, Doug McDermott scores a career high, Cristiano Felicio is the best Brazilian, Jonas Valanciunas goes off, Anthony Bennett lol.
March 14, Chicago 109 @ Toronto 107
Out: DeMarre Carroll, Jonas Valanciunas (hurt in first quarter), Derrick Rose, Pau Gasol, Mike Dunleavy, Joakim Noah
Notes: Doug McDermott ling chi, E’Twaun couldn’t possibly Moore, the non-Patrick Patterson frontcourt can’t score, RIP James Johnson’s playing time moving forward.
Looking at all of those games together, the disadvantages definitely stack up to make the Bulls look even better. Yes, Carroll and Valanciunas are two of the Raptors’ four most important players in a game against Chicago, but Rose, Butler, Gasol, and Dunleavy are kind of important, too. And Cameron Bairstow isn’t at 100 percent, so.
It’s a lot, and it certainly makes the Bulls look like a tough matchup, if not a better team entirely. On balance, Toronto has been far better than Chicago this year, but that doesn’t mean a great deal if the two get paired up. Is that something the Raptors would necessarily worry about?
“No,” Lowry said at shootaround. “You guys seen that last year.”
And he’s right – Toronto swept the season series against Washington in 2014-15, only to be run off the floor come playoff time. Statistically, regular-season head-to-head is a little telling for playoff outcomes, but not significantly so, and the impact shrinks as the playoffs roll on. Head coach Dwane Casey was less forgiving, at a loss for how a random Bull has an “out-of-body experience” every time they play Toronto. There’s also the matter of a potential psychological hurdle limiting confidence entering a series, something there’s really only one cure for.
“For us to change that, whenever we get to play them again, we’re going to have to beat them,” Lowry said.
Unfortunately, there are no more opportunities this season, and the Raptors would enter a potential series with the Bulls at 0-4, without a win against them in either of the last two seasons. With four players in the likely nine-man playoff rotation turned over from a year ago, there can’t be much stock put into what happened last year, but it’s certainly not an ideal scenario.
And Monday’s loss made the matchup more likely. Not only did Toronto fail to gain ground on the Cleveland Cavaliers – they remain 2.5 games back with just 17 to play, a tough climb when you’re trying to get key players additional rest – but they allowed the Bulls to move back into a playoff spot. While Toronto is 2.5 back of Cleveland and 5.5 up on Boston, essentially locking them in to the two-seed barring a Cleveland slump, the Bulls are tied for eighth, just 1.5 games back of seventh.
The most likely case remains Toronto drawing Indiana in a 2-7 matchup, but if they fear Chicago, they did themselves no favors Monday. (And ironically, a win would have shaken off some of that bad stigma while also making it less important, as the matchup would have become less likely). Here’s how the final East standings project from a few different sources (rounded to the nearest win):
Now, there’s a lot those projections don’t know, like injuries and under-performance to date and returns to health. And while they’re mostly in agreement thanks to the lack of room for heavy variance in roughly a 17-game sample, one or two games can also make a world of difference. So take them with a grain of salt, but recognize that the Bulls catching Indiana still isn’t all that likely.
What’s strange, if it happens, is that Chicago shouldn’t be this tough a matchup for Toronto. The Bulls are good, perhaps great at full strength, and their physical style certainly takes a toll, but on paper, the Bulls aren’t that scary. They have some bigs who can stretch things out but some who can’t, Valanciunas has made hay against their smaller frontcourts, and while Rose can be Rose, he also has to defend, and who knows how he’ll hold up physically. The biggest issue wouldn’t be the physicality, I don’t think – the Raptors can play that style and may even embrace it in a playoff series – but that Chicago is the league’s third-best 3-point shooting team. They don’t shoot a lot, but they’re very good when they do. Still, you line up the likely rotations and assume Moore and McDermott are mortal, and you can talk yourself into the Raptors winning (assuming a healthy Carroll).
Of course, ask three different people if the Bulls are a bad matchup for Toronto and you’ll get three different answers. No seriously, try it. I did, and I got vastly different answers as to who the best and worst matchups for the Raptors are come playoff time, and I’ve seen even more opinions in my Twitter timeline. There are “only” 120 possible different ranking orders for a set of five, but apparently no two people agree on the ranking of difficulty of potential Raptors playoff matchups.
In the interest of fostering discussion, here’s a quick look at each team within 2.5 games of the seven-seed, ranked in order of how much I’d like to avoid them.
Atlanta (2.5 games up), 2-0 this season
Threats: Stretchy frontcourt, fast guard play, transition scoring, Mike Budenholzer
Opportunities: Smaller frontcourt, rebounding, overall backcourt talent
Even with Carroll healthy, this one would scare me. I know the Raptors have played them well on defense twice, but this is the No. 2 defense in basketball, and they have a plethora of bigs who can stretch the floor. The Raptors could hit the offensive glass aggressively to help make up for that and punish them inside, but Casey isn’t a big fan of chasing second-chance points, and giving up transition threes is already an issue for Toronto. This is probably the matchup I’m most scared of.
Chicago (1.5 back), 0-4 this season
Threats: Butler at both ends, 3-point shooting, physicality, psychology
Opportunities: Depth of talent, PG defense if Rose plays, PG offense if Rose doesn’t, Drake’s defense
Discussed already. It’d be worrisome but on paper, not the worst possible matchup.
Charlotte (2 games up), 1-1 this season
Threats: Defensive-minded wings, Kemba Walker going insane, stretchy bigs
Opportunities: Guard defense, offensive rebounding, not a major transition threat
A tough series for DeRozan and, like Atlanta, a big series for Cory Joseph and the team’s willingness to hit the offensive glass. I’ve never been a huge Walker fan, but he’s been on another level of late. Al Jefferson might actually be a blessing in big minutes to help prevent the defense getting stretched out, as Valanciunas has proven a more effective post defender than defender in space. Even if Nic Batum can lock DeRozan down, I think the Raptors can find enough offense elsewhere.
Detroit (1.5 games back), 2-1 this season
Threats: Stan Van Gundy, playmaking fours, rebounding
Opportunities: Defense when smaller, attacking Drummond, PG depth
I know people saw the Tobias Harris addition and grew worried, and Harris is a tough check, but his inability to shoot threes compared to the outgoing Ersan Ilyaosva is a blessing for Toronto. Reggie Jackson is good but has to be hidden a bit on defense, and while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could guard Lowry, they’re very thin at guard overall (and who knows what Jodie Meeks might be able to offer once healthy). This is actually my pick for the series that would be the most fun.
Indiana (in the spot), 1-1 this season
Threats: Paul George, guard scoring, lineup versatility
Opportunities: Lack of shooting, rebounding, defensive balance
Maybe I’m selling myself on the most likely matchup, and we’ll learn more Thursday, but Indiana doesn’t put much fear into me. Their guards can score and George Hill is criminally underrated, but most of their guards outside of him struggle defensively. They’ve kind of ditched going small, too, where they could most hurt the Raptors. George is a two-way stud but also has a ton of weight on his shoulders and has shot below 40 percent since the start of December (he’s still been great, just less efficient).
It sounds like a cop-out, but the honest truth is that no matter who the Raptors draw in Round One, it’s easy to see them winning or losing. I don’t think anybody would pick them to win or lose in four or five games, with every matchup likely stretching out to six or seven. They’d probably be Vegas favorites in each, but not significant ones. There’s just not a lot of separation between these teams in terms of overall quality, and the Raptors haven’t established themselves enough – despite their record – as clear-cut favorites to make it out of the first round.
Having said all of this, I remain more confident this year than I was last year. I think the Raptors are a better team, a little more matchup proof on offense, and more capable of winning games on the defensive end. Of the five teams listed, none would terrify me if Carroll’s healthy (and if not, well, all of these discussions change a great deal, anyway), but none would look like slam-dunks.
What potential opponent do you fear most?
Which are you hoping for?
