Gameday: Pacers @ Raptors, Game 7, May 1

Some say the two greatest words in the English language are “Game Seven”. Yet for a franchise without a history of winning your vernacular may be summoning other phrases like “panic attack”, “nervous energy” or “not again”.

All the sports analogies are laid to bear:

“We live to fight another day”
“When the going gets tough, the tough get going”
“It’s not over until the fat lady sings”

Or my favorite:
“Champions aren’t made in the gym. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them – a desire, a dream, a vision.” – Muhammad Ali

I could roll out superlatives forever, but there is a very specific reason the Toronto Raptors’ fan base has a bit of an inferiority complex. Unlike franchises like the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers or San Antonio Spurs the Raptors haven’t created a legacy of positive post season experiences to draw from. Repeated trips to a dry well haven’t produced anything other than sand. Yet, in spite of the previous failings the fact is, an oasis is there waiting to be claimed.

For those wondering if these are the words of a blind optimist, rest assured my anxiety level is equal to those who’ve also taken this 21 year journey. To wit, what began Friday as butterflies in my stomach ended with what felt like a punch to the gut.

Therefore today’s game day preview will have all the normal components, mixed with some personal – hey, let’s be honest for every Raptor fan, this is personal. Suffice to say this first round series game 7 carries the same weight for Raptor Nation as if it were an NBA Finals match.

With that lets take a look at the specifics:

Game Specifics:

Keeping in line with how the series has gone the tip-off again occurs at at a different start time: 8:00 PM EST

TV: TNT, Sportsnet

Radio: TSN Radio, 1050 Toronto

History:

Raptors:

Suffice to say this section could just as easily be titled “Pressure” given Toronto’s performances in these situations has only served to increase the anxiety building in the fan base.

To wit, the Raptors are looking to win their first 7-game series and only their second first round series in 21 years.

They’ve been here (meaning to game 7) twice before and both ended in defeat. The most recent occurrence being 3 years ago which culminated with Lowry lying on the ground after a broken play and shot block via the Raptors nemesis Paul Pierce. How many of you recall this game not only came down to a final shot, but also went to overtime?

Some may also recall the Raptors had to come from behind, and a heads up play by Terrence Ross to steal the inbound pass and throw it off Joe Johnson gave Toronto the final shot.

Prior to this you have to go back 15 years, to game 7 in Philly which also ended with the Raptors taking the final shot. Thus began the lore of the Raptors never winning the big one, as the last shot taken by “The Graduate” clanked off the rim.

Pacers:

While Toronto has just the two incidences to pull experience from the Pacers have been in seven such battles with a 3-4 record:

The most recent game 7 for the Pacers resulted in a 92-80 win over the Atlanta Hawks, the difference was they played at home. Indiana entered that game as the top Eastern Conference seed and coincidentally boasted the exact same record as the Raptors this season (56-26).

The year prior, as the third seed they met Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals losing to the Heat on the road 99-76

Their other 5 experiences date back to before this current iteration of the Pacers existed with the most recent being in 2004-05 when the sixth seeded Pacers upset the Celtics 97-70 at home.

Association:

Putting aside the extreme pressure resting on the Raptors shoulders to vanquish ghosts, statistically the numbers favor Toronto. Seventh seeds have only defeated a two seed once since 1999, and only six teams have accomplished that goal since 1984 (notably the NBA expanded the first round from a 5-game series to best of 7 in 2001-02).

In 121 game 7’s the home team has won 80% of the time (97-24). Last season only two series went the distance with both home teams winning (Clippers over the Spurs and Rockets returning the favor to the Clippers). There were five game 7’s in 2013-14 and all but one (yeah, I know…. the Raptors vs the Nets) won.

So, statistically the numbers favor the Raptors in spite of them being one of the favorites who’ve lost at home.

Lessons Learned:

Series Stats:

Offensive Rebounds: The Raptors continue to lead the offensive rebound category which produces another plus in second chance points. If there was one positive takeaway from game 6 the Raptors had the edge in second chance scoring: 24-8. Although, this may be a factor of how poorly Toronto shot the ball, it speaks to the bonus Valanciunas and Biyombo provide on the offensive glass.

Transition Defense: In the last 3 games the Pacers have outplayed the Raptors 9.5 of 12 quarters. Though you could argue this was tied to which team was more aggressive and focused, there is also the obvious issues the Raptors had stopping the Pacers in transition.

Screens: In game 4 when the small ball unit erased the double digit lead, one of the key contributors was well set screens. Biyombo was a big part of that, but on a whole the unit on the floor did a better job in this regard.

Win vs Loss Difference:

I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time scouring the box scores dissecting each player’s production looking for major variances in wins versus losses. There wasn’t much new to learn that hasn’t already been discussed ad nauseam but there were a few tidbits:

DeRozan: Though his scoring issues (other than game 5) are well documented arguably the bigger problem is he isn’t making good decisions or providing anything else of note. Specifically his assists and rebounds are also off his season averages. The odd part is DeRozan is performing better in losses than in wins which lends itself to how difficult a job Duane Casey has in figuring out what to do. In losses DeRozan is grabbing 3.6 rebounds and dishing 3 assists and in wins he has 3 rebounds and 2.3 assists. Both are below his season average of 4.5 rebounds and 4 assists.

Turnovers: It’s been the most glaring and obvious issue in the Raptors losses. When they turn the ball over they lose: period. Though the entire team is guilty of this it’s the teams stars Lowry and DeRozan who factor most. In wins Lowry has 1.3 turnovers and in losses 4.3. DeRozan also coughs up the rock 4.3 times in losses as opposed to 1.6 in wins.

Moreover, when Toronto hold Indiana to their season average of points obtained off turnovers they win.

100 Point Barrier: Taking a page from the regular season the 100 point threshold remains a real things as each Pacers victory has been 100 points (101 in game 6) and each loss has been south of that mark.

Paul George: He’s been the best player on the court for either team. In review of the losses vs. victories one item stood out:

Wins: George averages 4.6 three point shot attempts and makes 2.0
Losses: George averages 7.3 three point shot attempts and makes 2.6

Perhaps this is me searching for a needle in a haystack, but arguably this gives merit to slacking off George to cut down his passing lanes since it forces him into taking more three point shots.

Digging deeper in those losses the Pacers had fewer players scoring in double digits: G2 had 2 (George/Ellis), G3 had 3 (George, G. Hill and Turner) and G5 had 4 (same as G3 plus S. Hill).

Conversely in the Pacers wins they boasted multiple double digit scorers: games 1 and 6 had 5 players score in double digits with the latter having 2 players close with 8 and 9 points respectively. The only oddity in the mix was game 4 when 3 players hit that mark, with George Hill and Mahinmi each scoring 22 points. Other than game 4 no Pacer aside from George has scored over 17 points which happened once (Turner).

The Powell Effect: Granted it’s a small sample size, but in the Raptors losses Powell averaged 16.26 minutes on the floor versus wins when he had an additional 8.5 minutes on the court for an average of 25 minutes. (of note I didn’t include his game 3 playing time since he spent 2:59 on court).

X-Factors:

If you’ve been looking for solace following the game 6 loss or inspiration heading into game 7, it’s likely you’ve read Patrick Patterson’s quote one or two times. Though publicly Lowry has said all the right things it’s likely he’s being more vocal behind closed doors. Yet, to have at least one Raptor player articulate something you would expect from a veteran leader was comforting.

To that end, let’s examine how the outcome of this evening could be effected by a few players:

DeRozan: the term ‘the seven year itch’ keeps coming to mind when I think of DeRozan as that’s how long he’s played in a Raptors jersey. While I’ve been on board to re-sign him all season his failure to produce in the series hangs like an ominous black rain cloud. That said, one great outing from him resulting in a victory could erase the short term misgivings. He would then have an opportunity to prove in the next round this series was simply a factor of Paul George/Indy’s defense combined with the pressure to lead the Raptors to a first round series win.

Whereas another loss will only serve to ignite his free agency value and whether the Raptors should sign him at all. Personally, I value the benefit DeRozan offers, but like Bosh before him, I believe he would be better suited as a secondary or third scoring option.

I’ve watched Lowry flexing that elbow all while diving for balls (and hitting it on the floor in doing so), and for the most part he is making a difference everywhere except scoring. DeRozan as mentioned up top isn’t delivering in that regard. More than any player on this squad, DeRozan needs to show heart and energy today. And, if the ball still isn’t falling he needs to take his role of co-leader seriously by making all his teammates better. He can accomplish that via better, quicker decision making and initiating ball/player movement.

Raptors ‘others’: Desperate people will do just about anything, which is why I’m reaching back to the Brooklyn series remembering that play by Ross. With that, a strong performance from Ross could provide the offense the Raptors are so clearly searching for.

2 days off vs. 1: Mahinmi has played better with 2-days rest. With the Pacers utilizing primarily 7 players could fatigue play a factor? As per Sports VU Paul George might also be showing signs of the wear and tear given his lack of offense in Game 6.

Lowry – Just once: You know he wants it as badly as all of you. So, I’ve sent a prayer out into the universe to the basketball gods requesting one (pain free) game of ‘Lowry is Everything’. Please let skinny Kyle Lowry be the man who gets to etch his name in the Raptors archives as the catalyst who led Toronto to their first game 7, series win.

(above as per Sports VU)

Rotations:

Raptors:
PG: Lowry, Joseph
SG:DeRozan Powell,
SF: Carroll, Ross
PF: Patterson, Scola, Thompson
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo

Pacers:
PG: G. Hill, Lawson
SG:Ellis, Stuckey
SF: George, Miles
PF Turner: Allen, S. Hill
C: Mahinmi

The Line:

Game 1: Raptors -6.5 (Pacers 100, Raptors 90)
Game 2: Raptors -7 (Raptors 98, Pacers 87)
Game 3: Raptors -1 (Raptors 101, Pacers 85)
Game 4: Raptors -1.5 (Pacers 100, Raptors 83)
Game 5: Raptors -7 (Raptors 102, Pacers 99)
Game 6: Pacers -2 (Pacers 101, Raptors 83)

The odds makers return to placing Toronto as the favorites by 5.5 points, an over/under of 189.5 points with the Pacers currently heavy favorites.

Referee Assignments:

Danny Crawford, Ron Garretson, Bill Spooner

Spooner was part of the 3 man crew who officiated the Nets game 7.

In Closing:

Patterson’s post game comments provide the wisdom each player should heed:

“We have to have a long, hard look in the mirror at ourselves and realize what basketball team do we want to be,” said Patrick Patterson, who started his second straight game for the Raptors, finishing with five points on seven shots in Game 6. “Do we want to be the team that won 56 games, do we want to be the team that got two all-stars to the all-star game and all the accolades, set new records, went on long winning streaks, played great defense the first half of the season, or do we want to be this team that’s come in Indiana the past two times and got blown out of the water? We have to decide what we have to be. We have to decide what team we want to be and that’s it.”

Repeatedly the Republic writers have cited the advantages the Raptors have in talent, depth and seeding. The stage is set with the Association making this game the last to be played of the first round. Game 7’s in NBA History are also on the Raptors side.

Tonight we’ll learn exactly what is inside of each man on the roster who set new standards all season. Win and erase fifteen years of misery for the Raptors faithful and themselves. Lose and become the NBA’s punch line yet again.

I’m obviously (butterflies aside) choosing to believe they’ll be a party in ‘We The North’ tonight!