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Pre-game news and notes: Scola starts, Kalamian interviews with Rockets, and more

Oh god, what is this lineup change going to be?

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Well. It can’t be worse than Game 1. The Toronto Raptors should rebound and at least put up more of a fight in Game 2 as they take on the juggernaut Cleveland Cavaliers once again. Coming off of a 31-point loss, the Raptors should be hungry early, and their approach and rotation could and maybe should look different, as we’ve talked about over the last two days.


The game tips off at 8:30 p.m. from Quicken Loans Arena. ESPN has the game in the U.S., with Mike Breen, Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson, and Doris Burke on the call, while TSN has the Canadian broadcast and TSN 1050 has radio rights. Danny Crawford, James Capers, and Sean Wright are the officials.

Required reading
Here’s what you need ahead of Game 1, assuming you haven’t been keeping up.

*I’ve got you covered with the full game preview.
*I also took a look at what worked on the offensive end in Game 1, and what didn’t on the defensive end (spoiler: everything). Within each, adjustments are recommended, and RR alum William Lou wrote about some of those same adjustments.
*The Raptors know they have to pick a poison with the Cavs’ offense. Maybe the fire lit under them from getting their asses kicked will help. Or maybe a short memory will. I don’t know. it was 31 points, you can do literally anything and be better.

Ghostface ZIller wrote a great piece at SB Nation on why those dismissing or laughing at the Raptors’ run can shut up any time now.

Raptors updates
Jonas Valanciunas is still out and sounds pretty dam doubtful for Saturday, barring an unforeseen uptick in his condition and activity level. Sure would be nice to have the best big man in the series (right, Justin?) around for a game or two, but there’s little sense rushing back a 24-year-old who’s about to enter the first year of a substantial four-year contract.

Raptors projected rotation
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Delon Wright)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, T.J. Ross, (Norman Powell)
SF: DeMarre Carroll, James Johnson, (Bruno Caboclo)
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson
C: Bismack Biyombo, (Jason Thompson), (Lucas Nogueira), (Jonas Valanciunas)

UPDATE: Scola starts. This is…something. There’s plenty of analysis below when it was just a potential change, but I hate this. I’m fine with Scola seeing minutes, but it never makes sense to me to change a starting group that isn’t struggling in order to get the bench going. On top of which, this is a pretty bad defensive matchup for Scola. It might “work,” because the Raptors almost couldn’t possibly play worse than Game 1, but I disagree with the logic behind the move (again, as explained below). That logic, by the way, is probably three-fold: Help the bench unit rediscover it’s chemistry, make the second unit a little rangier against five-out Cavs groups, and let Patterson guard James in the minutes Carroll sits (not sure where this leaves Johnson). It may also leave Patterson more fresh at the end of games, should the end-game be close enough for that to matter.

We talked about a lot of potential tweaks over the last two days, but let’s hit some of the options again quickly.

Norman Powell: Yes, I think he could probably help on Irving. It’s tough to play two point guards and Powell together given Cleveland’s size, but with Joseph struggling and Irving cooking, Powell as an Irving cooler is a worthwhile dice-roll. Not in the starting lineup, mind you, because…

Changing the starters: There’s been a lot of talk of tweaking the starters to get the bench going. This is called cutting off your nose to spit your face. I get that the bench was great before, but with Valanciunas out and Scola unplayable in some matchups, you’re already forced to change the starters. And everyone shortens their rotation in the playoffs, anyway – the answer isn’t to open it back up to try to find some off-the-bench chemistry. The starters were only a minus-2 in Game 1, too, and that includes several missed open looks using Patterson pick-and-pops to strong effect. The starters aren’t the issue, and it’s just on Casey to better work the rotations.

The solution to playing poorly is not to play worse players more and play them earlier.

Luis Scola: Most of the beat writers got the impression Scola will be back in the rotation for Game 2. That’s…something. It’s probably OK for a few minutes off the bench if they can match him up with Thompson’s minutes, but it’s going to be a defensive problem no matter what – the Cavs will seek out Scola in the pick-and-roll with Thompson, Love will post him up, Frye will make him run around the perimeter, and Scola can’t do enough damage at the other end to account for that. Given how little the team’s gotten from Thompson and Nogueira, and how uncomfortable they seem to be going small, it’s a justifiable gamble for small bench minutes, but Scola has to have a really short hook. (And as always, this has nothing to do with Scola the person, or Scola’s career, he’s just tough to play against offensive powerhouses).


Other tweaks: When the Cavs go small, I’d toy with Biyombo on James or on Shumpert in a weak-side safety role (Frye and Love are pulling him away from the rim otherwise, where he’s fine but it’s a waste of his biggest assets). When the Cavs are big, I’d have Biyombo on Thompson to keep him near the rim, and I’d be switching Carroll and Patterson more on James-Love actions. No matter the alignment, I’d be sending more help on James and dealing with scrambling for closeouts after the fact.

Check back before tip off to confirm the starters.

Cavaliers updates
Nothing doing on the Cavs’ side. It’s nice to be healthy and rested.

Cavaliers projected rotation
PG: Kyrie Irving, Matthew Dellavedova, (Mo Williams)
SG: J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, (Dahntay Jones), (Jordan McRae)
SF: LeBron James, Richard Jefferson
PF: Kevin Love, (James Jones)
C: Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye, (Timofey Mozgov), (Sasha Kaun)

Not sure they’ll change a whole lot here. They ethered the Raptors and didn’t even play their best offensive weapon, the insane James-Love-Frye frontcourt. “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” is a silly idiom in a playoff series where adjustments often need to be proactive, so I offer this, instead: “If you broke someone else with it, don’t fix it.”


The one thing I could see Cleveland doing is going small sooner. The Raptors really only played well when Thompson was on the court, even though Thompson’s a quality defender and a beast on the glass. He’s just easier for Toronto to handle defensively than a spaced-out attack, and I could see Lue giving Thompson a hook earlier and then putting him back in when the Raptors take Biyombo off, letting Thompson feast on rebounds against a smaller frontcourt or a backup big.

Check back for an update on the official starters.

Pre-game news and notes
*Norman Powell received three votes for the NBA’s All-Rookie Second Team. He did not make said team, joining Masai Ujiri, Dwane Casey, Patrick Patterson, and Kyle Lowry (times three!) as Raptors to receive votes but not earn an actual honor. Here’s what I wrote about Powell’s candidacy in April:

Unfortunately, Powell isn’t one of them. He’s at 650 minutes, and that’s kind of the end of the discussion. Had he spent the whole season like he’s spent the 15 games since March 15 – 27.7 minutes, 11.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and a plus-2.3 mark – then he’d be on, for sure. Maybe he’ll earn Rookie of the Month honors for April as appreciation for his season, instead – he’s at 12.3 points on 48.9/44.4/78.6 shooting in six games this month.

*Assistant coach Rex Kalamian interviewed for the Houston Rockets’ head coaching position today, according to Marc Stein of ESPN. The Raptors reportedly gave their permission, and Daryl Morey and Les Alexander traveled to Cleveland to interview him. It’s a little strange on a game day, sure, but if it’s a good opportunity for Kalamian, it’s nice of the organization to let him feel it out. Stein points out that Kalamian is close to James Harden (Kalamian was an assistant in OKC when Harden was there), and that the Rockets would have interest in him even if they land a different head coach (which I’m assuming means as the new coach’s lead assistant/associate head coach).

The Raptors could be in for quite a bit of brain-drain this summer. Here’s what I wrote about it earlier today:

This is both good and bad. Obviously, you don’t want to lose talented people from your organization, but similar to how Raptors 905 developing talent and seeing it thrive elsewhere it still a positive indicator of what you’re doing, other teams wanting to hire away your staff for more prominent roles sends the signal you’re finding and developing people the right way.

I’ve long heard Webster was a popular name, from the minute the Raptors plucked him from the league office, and Nurse is someone I have suggested should be on a head-coaching shortlist (and at one time, when it looked like Casey may not be long for Toronto, I suggested Nurse would be a suitable successor). On top of those two, I’ve heard nothing but good things about VP of basketball operations Jeff Weltman, Andy Greer is a Tom Thibodeau disciple who could conceivably head to Minnesota, and Rex Kalamian is a Scott Brooks guy. There are a few other names in the organization that I could draw a pretty clean line from Point A to Point B to based on some other offseason changes, too.

Losing so many names would hurt, to be sure. What these kind of rumors should assure you of, though, is that Masai Ujiri and company have done an excellent job stocking the organization with assets off the court. There’s no reason to think they won’t be able to find the next wave of coaching and front office talent, too.

*This is a little weird but also kind of adorable and awesome (and is a reminder why the Raptors wanted Lue as an assistant a few years back):


*The Raptors are alive, which is a positive.


Assorted
*The Q is once again looking dope. (And can I just say, even if this isn’t the right time: I really like Cleveland. I’ve been there a few times, think it’s an underrated town. Stipe Miocic is cool, The Miz is awesome, Bone Thugs are the truth, and Major League is one of the greatest movies of all time. Are their sports teams garbage? Of course, but that’s part of the charm. Do I have what was once a good memory and is now a terrible one from there? Most definitely, but that feels like the most Cleveland-appropriate thing, anyway. I digress.)


*This is suboptimal. (DeRozan had a good Game 1, but it still wasn’t particularly efficient with the lack of threes and free throws.)


*Biyombo is afraid of lions, which makes the list of things he’s afraid of at least one item longer than I thought it would be.
*Repeating from shootaround notes: I need a Lil Kev shirt.


*Draft stuff is starting! (Dejounte Murray is a long, skinny, Pac-12 combo-guard who’s lacking a 3-point shot. Sound familiar? He’s on the first-round bubble.)


The line
Game 1: Cavaliers -10.5 (Cavaliers 115, Raptors 84)
Game 2: Cavaliers -11.5
Series: Cavaliers -5000 (98% implied win probability)

The line’s even touched as high as Cavaliers -12.5, so it seems there’s even less market confidence in the Raptors now that the Cavs have had a game (or the first six minutes of one, really) to shake the rust off from a nine-day reprieve. But look, I’m not picking this Raptors team to lay down, ever. Game 1 was bad, and the Raptors looked tired and outmatched, but we’re 97 games into a season in which the Raptors have rarely, if ever, no-showed two games in a row. They’re resilient, they’re tough, they’ll adjust, and they’ll put up a fight. And the line got get down slightly during the day. I don’t think they’ll win, mind you, but I’d be pretty surprised if the Cavaliers repaint the Q with their blood once again.

Cavaliers 104, Raptors 97

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CLEVELAND, OH - MAY 17: Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) and Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) on the bench just prior to introductions. Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers during 2nd half play of NBA Eastern Conference Finals play at Quicken Loans Arena. Raptors lose 115-84. Toronto Star/Rick Madonik (Rick Madonik/Toronto Star via Getty Images)

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