It seems like an eternity since the Toronto Raptors earned their inaugural trip to the Eastern Conference Finals via a Game 7 oust of the Heat. The reality is it was less than a week ago. Let that ruminate for a minute – it’s been 6 days since the team, city, nation and fan base were collectively celebrating yet another Raptors milestone accomplishment.
Unquestionably the 6-days since have taken a toll as they’ve served to douse the over flowing joy of Raptors fanatics. Hey, two consecutive blow-out losses will have that effect. Yet, as the ever even tempered Dwane Casey reminded everyone, a series doesn’t start until you lose at home.
Still, the Raptors haven’t looked remotely close to the team who spanked the Heat this past Sunday. Most notably, the Raptors leader Kyle Lowry has more closely resembled his prior series nemesis: Dwyane Wade, whose body finally couldn’t match his desire to win.
If Lowry can summon the bull dog once more, and the Raptors can rediscover their ability to bounce back in adversity, tonight represents their best opportunity to capture their first win in the series. Should that not occur, all is not lost as there are some lessons to be learned from their Conference Finalist counterparts.
To wit, the Thunder’s first trip to the finals came in 2011-12. The season prior Oklahoma City fought through 7 games to reach the Conference Finals only to lose in 5 games to the eventual Championship Dallas Mavericks. In the 4 seasons since (other than last year’s injury riddled campaign) the Thunder have finished no worse than the Semi Finals.
Golden State’s rise has been meteoric, winning the title in their third season of the current Stephen Curry era. In spite of their accelerated run they also suffered a set back in year 2 of their rise, losing in the first round in 7 games to the Clippers.
And, the Raptors current opponent have yet to recognize their title aspirations. In LeBron James first stint with Cleveland, the Cavaliers made it to the finals just once. Of that 5 year run the Cleveland Cavaliers made two appearances in the Conference Finals reaching the Semi Finals on the other 3 occasions.
The fact the Raptors are one of the final 4 standing speaks to their steady growth as a core. Moreover, of the 4 remaining their presence may be the most impressive at least from a dollars and cents perspective. Specifically, the Raptors are the only Conference Finalists under the salary cap. Their roster ranks 24th in the NBA at $71 million. Cleveland boasts the most expensive roster of $108M and will pay $54M in tax. The Thunder and Warriors sit third and fourth in the NBA paying $96.6M ($19M tax) and 93.6M ($15M tax) respectively. Breaking this down further, the Cavaliers luxury tax alone is equal to 76% of the Raptors complete salary. No matter how you slice it Cleveland has the talent and depth, but they’ve also paid a steep price for it.
Furthermore, the Raptors (9) and Celtics (3) are the only playoff teams who’ll have a pick in the top 10 of the upcoming 2016 NBA Draft. Plus the Raptors second pick (27) will come before any of the final 4. In fact the Warriors (30) are the only other finalist with a pick in the first round.
Suffice to say there is a learning curve, and experience provides the best ammunition for future runs, be it on the court, behind the bench or in the management offices. Granted the team nor the fan base are ready to concede anything yet, nor should they be. After 21 seasons, this unprecedented journey hasn’t reached it’s destination and there are more sights to witness.
With that, let’s break it down:
Number Crunching:
- In the final 3 games of the Heat series Lowry and DeRozan each got to the line 25 times. Through 2 games they have shot 2 and 6 free throws respectively. Conversely the big three of Cleveland have made 41 collective trips to the stripe. While Game 1 was noted for neither Raptors backcourt starter getting to the line, the team had 20 attempts to the Cavs 33. Game 2, showcased even greater disparity as the Cavaliers more than doubled (37-18) the Raptors attempts.
- Raptors have played every other day for 22 consecutive days (11 games). In the same time span the Cavaliers have played 6 times with 8 days rest prior to the Conference Finals start.
- Of the 223 total Cavalier points scored through 2 games, the big 3 of James, Irving and Love are responsible for 133 points or 59.6% of the scoring.
- Raptors are 6-2 at home in the playoffs with a 32-9 regular season success rate at Air Canada Centre.
- Game 2 marked the first time this post season the Raptors lost back to back games. They haven’t lost 3 in a row since November 15 – 18 (all 3 on the road).
Story Lines:
Battered and Bruised: Arguably the greatest take away from this season is the need to close out teams early in the first and second rounds. Had the Raptors disposed of Indiana in 5 games for example the efforts they made in games 6 and 7 versus Miami could have been utilized in Cleveland. By pushing each series to its limit it has forced the Raptors to play with copious injuries and launch shots on weary legs.
Potty Gate: Perhaps Lowry was simply embarrassed to tell a female (Doris Burke) he needed to relieve himself, choosing to say he was decompressing instead. His choice to say the latter has divided opinion on how that effected the team, but none of his teammates seemed phased. Some have taken offense feeling it speaks to poor character. I’ll counter with would you rather he have taken a technical foul? Lowry is a passionate player who earlier this season was ejected for losing his cool. In my opinion choosing to not jeopardize the team in that manner, but instead refocus in private was in this case a suitable response.
Customs Gate: With the #WeTheOther and “Oh Canada” guffaws the series has unfortunately taken on a North vs South narrative. Fully 60% of the Raptors hail from America and their are two Canadians in the mix, with one on each team (Joseph and Thompson). This is not a national competition like the Olympics, therefore it seems like a reach to be pitting the bordered countries against one another. Then again, a friend told me with no historic playoff battles between the clubs, perhaps it’s occurring to create the context for a rivalry. While that may be true, unfortunately the Raptors haven’t played well enough (yet) for real enmity to surface. Further, in the absence of actual series story lines every little thing that happens serves as fodder to potentially spark some animosity.
For example, upon arrival in Canada the Cavaliers were held up at customs, and while I have no idea if this is typical, was an extended wait or the players were just having fun, Richard Jefferson’s instagram video made it’s way to prime time NBA TV offering fuel to spark the Cavs fans vitriol:
So, the Cavs are being held by customs right now 😂😂😂😂 pic.twitter.com/W7qWRKAmcS
— ClevelandFanz (@Cleveland_Fanz) May 20, 2016
Adjustments:
Force James to shoot: A rested LeBron James surrounded by capable talent is a nightmare that can’t be simply shut down. That said, historically teams who’ve had success against him have focused on two things: clog his passing lanes and make him a shooter: As Blake pointed out James is 0-5 outside the paint. In fact closer examination of the shot chart reveals the Cavaliers on a whole are shooting the worst from the mid-range and paradoxically on the perimeter where they excelled through the first 2 rounds.
Get Irving in early foul trouble: Maybe it seems like a simplistic answer, but as good as Irving has been part of his success has come because he’s not having to work on the defensive end. Forcing him to play full court achieves two goals: either draw early and quick fouls on him and/or fatigue him to effect his offensive production.
Hit open threes:The reality is there have been copious open looks available, especially on the perimeter. The Raptors have to hit those shots – period.
Be aggressor, control pace, resolve 2Q issues: Game 1 featured a good Toronto start which quickly regressed into a blow-out likely due to the quick turn around and adjustments to the Cavaliers pace. In Game 2, the Raptors held close until near the end of the half when the James plus reserve unit pulled away. Dissecting the game the Raptors lost every quarter, but aside from the second quarter they were within 2 or 3 points (7 total points). Specifically the final 3 minutes of the second frame is when the Cavaliers distanced themselves. If the Raptors can find a way to remain aggressive throughout the game their other main goal has to be to control pace. And, the obvious objective will be to finish quarters well, especially the second.
Offensive adjustments: In contrast to the first 2 rounds the Raptors have done a far better job moving the ball in this series. Yet to recognize success they need to find paths to the bucket and aggressively drive the paint. At their best the Raptors led by their backcourt must focus on paint penetration to either score easy buckets or find open perimeter shooters.
Use the crowd to build momentum: They are 6-2 at home in this post season, so let’s hope their fatigued bodies can find another gear sparked by the energy of the ACC crowd .
Raptors bench:
Throughout the post season (other than one game in Miami) the Raptors reserves have produced. With so many offensive weapons on Cleveland it’s crucial they rise to the occasion for the Raptors to have a shot at winning today. Notably the reserve unit was a -3 in Game 1 (36-39) and a +22 in Game 2 (41-19).
Substitions: Both Blake and Kiyan offered solutions as per the recommended reading list, and I’m of a similar voice. If Casey is committed to returning an offensive flow to the bench personally I’d start James Johnson. His size has been an issue for the Cavaliers to stop and he can either guard James or Love. The other player I’d like to see get additional playing time is Norman Powell who has demonstrated defensive chops especially guarding quick driving guards.
Lowry has to be EVERYTHING: He’s obviously tired from carrying this team following his herculean performances to turn the Heat series. To put into perspective how much a factor Lowry has been to the Raptors success isolatating the final 5 games of the Heat series he scored 30+ three times, produced 25 points in another and came close to a triple-double in the one game his scoring was low. In the final 3 games of that series he shot 44% from the field and over 57% from deep. That pales in comparison to his efforts in Cleveland. Here’s hoping some home cooking combined with criticism for his mid game locker room break will fuel another Lowry-esque performance.
Game Specifics:
The Venue: Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON
The Tip: 8:30 PM EST
TV: ESPN, Sportsnet
Radio: Sportset 590 the FAN, WTAM 1100/100.7 WMMS, 87.7 FM (ESP)
Recommended Pregame Reading/Listening:
- Game 2: | Box Score | Quick Reaction | Podcast|Post Game Notes |Analysis
- Kiyan offers some solutions to stop the Cavs
- Blake’s off day mid series mail bag offers goodies aplenty and Friday practice notes
- NBA.com SportVU breakdown as usual offers some awesome series stats. Notably the Game 3 edition looks at:
- the Raptors successful use of drives (as per below)
- defending Kyrie Irving (Biyombo was by far the most successful on Irving)
- Raptors Game 2 success shooting off the dribble
- Cavaliers Big 3 dominance in the post
Playoff Stats:
Walking Wounded:
Jonas Valanciunas Rotoworld noted Dwane Casey informed ESPN’s Mike Breen JV definitely won’t play Game 3.
Have to wonder how Carroll’s wrist, knee and ankle are effecting his ability to have any success guarding James.
Rotations:
Raptors:
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Delon Wright)
SG:DeMar DeRozan, Terrence Ross, (Norman Powell)
SF: DeMarre Carroll, James Johnson, (Bruno Caboclo)
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson,
C: Bismack Biyombo, (Jason Thompson), (Lucas Nogueira)
Cavaliers projected rotation
PG: Kyrie Irving, Matthew Dellavedova, (Mo Williams)
SG: J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, (Dahntay Jones), (Jordan McRae)
SF: LeBron James, Richard Jefferson
PF: Kevin Love, (James Jones)
C: Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye, (Timofey Mozgov), (Sasha Kaun)
The Line:
Game 1: Cavaliers -10.5 (Cavaliers 115, Raptors 84)
Game 2: Cavaliers -12 (Cavaliers 108,Raptors 89)
Game 3: Cavaliers -5.5
The odds makers take an abrupt turn lowering the line to 5.5 for the Cavaliers after a high of 12 points in Game 2. It’s unusual for a home team to not be favored in the Conference Finals. Since 1991-92 it’s only occurred on 31 occasions. So, the fact both Toronto and Oklahoma City find themselves in the underdog position enters rare territory. The results of the previous 31 occasions featured the home team covering the spread 18 times. The over under is 198.5 points and not surprisingly Cleveland is the early heavy favorite.
Referee Assignments:
Ken Mauer, Marc Davis, Mark Fraher and alternate Josh Tiven
In Closing:
As a Raptors fan whether you’ve suffered through all 21 seasons, are somewhere in the middle or just became a fan recently there has been a common bond of angst ridden summers. So, this milestone rich season of 56 wins, two series wins in game 7s no less, and the Raptors first Eastern Conference Finals has filled the previously barren coffers with memories aplenty.
Given that, It’s hard to remember this Raptors squad is still a work in progress. Or that the two first round draft picks in a year chock full of power forwards is probably why Masai Ujiri wisely held on to those picks at the deadline. Logically this $162M Cleveland squad should be expected to advance. Yet, the conundrum of being a sports fan rarely speaks to logic.
With so many dreams recognized it’s difficult to tell your mind to tell your heart to stop caring or yearning for more. The Toronto Raptors are firmly in the underdog position, a role they have excelled in. As the tip inches closer here’s hoping Lowry conjures his best David to slay the Cavaliers’ Goliath.
