Morning Coffee – Sat, May 21

Raptors back home for Game 3

The Raptors Are Running Out Of Time To Figure Things Out | Raptors Republic

James Johnson would help tremendously with attacking the paint, by the way. He gets in there as efficiently as anyone on the roster, so that’s one bonus of having him in the lineup apart from pestering LeBron. The free-throw discrepancy between these two teams in the first two games has been dramatic – a perplexing +37 in Cleveland’s favour – and despite the referee’s whistle leaning towards LeBron’s team, the Raptors aren’t doing themselves any favours by not attacking Cleveland inside.

The worst reality the Raptors are trying to cope with right now heading into game 3 is that Valanciunas has officially been ruled out. If he doesn’t come back by game 4, this could be a sweep. His insertion changes the entire dynamic of this series on a game-to-game basis if he ever makes it back in time. With Valanciunas in the lineup, the Raptors can provide enough threat down-low for the Cavs to reconsider playing without a rim protecter for large chunks, and any chance the Raptors can get to disassemble the Cavs’ go-to lineup will be conducive to getting results.

There is something to be said though about the Raptors’ offence overall – it’s actually been good. It’s not as good as it needs to be, for reasons mentioned above, but at the very least Toronto is zipping the ball nicely around the perimeter which has led to open threes for Carroll, Patterson, and Ross. But the Raptors desperately need those open threes to fall which they haven’t. As a whole, they shot 9-of-33 from behind the arc, with Patterson’s 2-of-4 mark being the most efficient of the lot. The margin of error against this East juggernaut is too tiny to allow that kind of bad shooting to trickle into your offense. If those shots drop – particularly Lowry’s 7 misses from three – the game is much closer than the box score reads. If the Raptors knock down their threes and get to line too, we’re looking at a competitive game, at the very least.

Kyle Lowry needs to find himself, and whatever he needs to do to ‘decompress’ better happen before tip-off tomorrow, because right now the Raptors are in a car with no driver. This is one series where Lowry’s other tangible contributions won’t be enough to squeak by. The Raptors need more.

Lowry explains leaving bench, Valanciunas doubtful, and other practice notes | Raptors Republic

Here’s a suggestion I’ve written many times: Put Bismack Biyombo on James in those scenarios, since Biyombo’s being pulled away from the rim by Channing Frye or Kevin Love, otherwise, rendered unable to help on James. James will have trouble posting Biyombo, and the face-up approach against a long, game defender might at least eat clock and get the ball out of his hands without having to abandon shooters. Alternatively, keep Patterson/Johnson on James and shift Biyombo to Shumpert, letting him play safety. I wrote about this more in this morning’s mailbag, so check that out.

Or, just get the fight in your pants.

Dwane Casey and the Raptors Still Have Something to Prove | VICE Sports

The Raptors’ defensive sins, mostly absent in the first two series, have been a greatest hits collection of Casey’s early years in Toronto. The Raptors have sent the Cavaliers to the line 70 times through two games, compared to shooting 38 free throws for themselves. Surely, a fraction—a tiny fraction—of that is a product of star calls going Cleveland’s way. A lot of it is silly off-the-ball stuff. It is Patterson grabbing a jersey. It is Scola bumping Love 16 feet out with his back to the basket. It is not only the result of a wide talent gap, although it is mostly that; it is foolish stuff from players who should know better.

The rest of it is mostly just the Raptors not keeping their man in front of them. Even accounting for the fact that he is LeBron James, it is nearly impossible to make sense of the fact that James is shooting 18-for-26 in this series despite clanking every jumper that comes his way. He is getting to the rim at relative will, inexcusable for Carroll, unless the excuse is that his knee is still bothering him.

And then at point guard, we have seen a flashback to last year’s brief playoff run (stumble?). Just like he was supposed to play John Wall to a draw last year, Lowry was at least supposed to cancel out Kyrie Irving. Instead, Lowry is missing shots and buckling under Cleveland’s defensive pressuring, turning the ball over with frequency. And on the other end, Irving is simply roasting him.

“He’s our guy,” Casey told reporters after the game. “He’s one of the examples (of offensive slumps affecting defensive performance). He’s missed some great looks, and he’s taken some of those looks down to the defensive end. He is an impactful player, but he can’t let that (affect him). None of our guys can.”

The irony is that if the Raptors set out to limit the Cavaliers’ 3-point shooting, they have done just that. Cleveland is shooting 14-for-41 from deep so far against the Raptors, after connecting on 50.6 percent of its 152 attempts against the Hawks. In picking their poison, however, the Raptors have gone too far in the other direction.

It is hard to think of the adjustment Casey could make to help slow down James and his gunning teammates. More and more, this looks like the inevitable result of a massive talent gap, and addressing that is Masai Ujiri’s job in offseasons to come.

The Raptors Desperately Need Jonas Valanciunas if They Want to Beat Cleveland | numberFire

The Valanciunas Effect

Aside from clearly being Toronto’s best individual low-post scorer, Valanciunas’ presence opened things up for the entire offense, which is reflected in their regular season stats.

Per NBAwowy.com, Toronto has averaged more points per possession with Valanciunas on the court, while also posting a higher True Shooting Percentage.

They have also taken much higher percentage shots with Valanciunas in the lineup, as 28.6 percent of their shots have come from layups or dunks with him on the court, as opposed to 25.7 percent with him off. With Valanciunas off the court, Toronto has struggled to get much going inside — instead settling more for three-pointers.

With Valanciunas off the court, 30.2 percent of their shots were threes, as opposed to just 25.5 percent when he was on the court.

Toronto has also rebounded the ball better with Valanciunas on the court, posting a 52.4 percent Rebounding Rate, as opposed to 50.7 percent without him on the floor.

Kyle Lowry must lead the Raptors back to respectability: Feschuk | Toronto Star

What’s going on? Even those who love Lowry will tell you that when he senses he can’t win a matchup, he’s prone to pulling the chute. We saw it last year when John Wall treated Lowry like a pylon in the Wizards’ first-round sweep of Toronto. And similar bad habits and rampant immaturity have been on display since Lowry started squaring off against an elite counterpart named Kyrie Irving.

Suddenly the Lowry who torched the Miami Heat for 35 points in a majestic second-round Game 7 looks like the Lowry who’d rather be playing any place but U.S. national TV. Suddenly the shots Lowry sometimes drains with ease aren’t going in. So far in the series Lowry is a horrific 1-for-15 from three-point range. Eleven of those attempts have come with Lowry either “open” or “wide open,” according to the statistical definitions laid out on NBA.com. In other words, the Cavaliers aren’t stopping him. He’s stopping himself.

And unlike in previous rounds, he’s not doing enough to compensate for his sub-par attack. As Casey said after Thursday’s game, Lowry has allowed missed shots on offence to lead to missed assignments on defence. And Lowry, too, has allowed his poor play to morph into inexcusably pouty body language — none of which bodes well for a team that, in this series, needs to strike a pose as the plucky underdog.

“He’s got to find a better way (to deal with his struggles),” Casey acknowledged Friday. “Because it looked like he was frustrated (in Game 2).”

It’s understandable he would be frustrated. Irving is a flash. LeBron is a savant. The Cavaliers are a scary-fast freight train of a basketball team. But none of that gives the Raptors an excuse to lie down on the tracks and whimper a prayer before the funeral. Even the eighth-seeded Detroit Pistons offered Cleveland a modicum of trouble in this year’s first round, keeping the margin of defeat to five points or less in two of four losses. Even the Atlanta Hawks managed to push the Cavs to the final possession of a one-point game before going out in a sweep.

Holding strong #wethenorth

A photo posted by Raptors Republic (@raptorsrepublic) on

Raptors have no room for error in Game 3 | Toronto Sun

In eight quarters played in Cleveland, the Raptors won none.

The biggest disparity was in the second, the Raptors being outscored by a combined margin of 65-36.

In the second quarters, the Cavs went to the line 27 times compared to four trips by Toronto.

Cleveland made 21 of its 39 shots, Toronto 15 of its 42 shots, including a 2-for-16 performance from beyond the arc.

One has to go back all the way to the early stages of the regular season to find a stretch where Toronto has lost three in a row.

If things don’t change quickly, and perhaps they won’t, they’ll go into the off-season having lost four in a row.

“They did what they (Cavs) were supposed to do on their home floor,” said Lowry. “We have an opportunity to play two games on our home floor. We have to do what we need to do on our home floor.

“We have to protect home. I think, for sure, we’ll be better at home. We’re supposed to be better at home. We have to take advantage of the opportunity. We’re down 0-2, but we haven’t played on our home floor yet.”

There was a Game 3 win on the road against the Pacers, a Game 3 win in Miami, but other than those two games the Raptors have played their best, or a reasonable facsimile, at home.

Saturday night with the NBA world watching, there’s no bigger stage than the one the Raptors will walk into for Game 3.

This sad picture makes us sad #wethenorth

A photo posted by Raptors Republic (@raptorsrepublic) on

Raptors’ Kyle Lowry stands his ground, and lives to tell about it | Toronto Star

JV DOUBTFUL: Raptors centre Jonas Valanciunas likely won’t be suiting up for Game 3 after coach Dwane Casey declared him doubtful Friday.

“It’s wishful thinking,” Casey said. “I don’t foresee him (playing Saturday night.)”

Valanciunas sprained his ankle in the second round against the Heat and only recently got back on the court with his teammates.

“His progression is coming,” Casey said. “He’s on the court with (assistant coach) Alex McKechnie and he’s doing an excellent job of getting him back up to speed and getting flexibility in the ankle. It’s coming along, but we’re not going to rush it back. That could do further damage to it.”

Raptors confident they can bounce back against Cavaliers | Toronto Sun

Casey repeatedly talked about the “uncharacteristic” mistakes his team was making in the wake of Thursday’s Game 2 loss.

Whether it was transition defence, the inordinate number of fouls his team committed or the offensive rebounds the team was giving up, Casey considers all these things correctable.

On Friday back in the familiar surroundings of the BioSteel Centre practice facility Casey was again hopeful.

He sees multiple areas where his team can improve and he has both the practice time and the film time to share that with his players.

But what he can’t control, but is doing everything in his power to at least help his players there, is to get to a point where they actually believe they can get back in this series.

It’s no easy sell. The Cavaliers have faltered only marginally, early in Game 1 and then late in the first quarter of Game 2 and then again for a spell late midway through quarter two.

All told those positive Raptors moments, and by extension negative Cavs moments, have lasted a grand total of about 13 minutes.

The rest of the 83 minutes have been almost entirely Cleveland.

That’s not a lot of positive momentum to build on but the Raptors appear clinging to a few things.

Game 3 Preview: Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Toronto Raptors

No Mental Lapses

After keeping the pace with the Cavs throughout the first half on Thursday, a short lapse to close the half was where things started to fall apart for Toronto.

“We can’t have those lapses,” DeMar DeRozan said. “It was a tie game, 46-46 in the second quarter before going into halftime and we put them on the free throw line too much. Next thing we knew at halftime we’re down. We were trying to fight and cut into that deficit from there on out. We can’t have lapses in the game, especially against a team like this.”

Casey said his team needs to guard against picking up quick and easy fouls, especially when it means sending Cleveland to the free throw line.

“We gave them about eight points [to close the half] on careless fouls, on cheap fouls,” he said.

“It’s not the entire game that really breaks our back,” Casey continued. “I think we had cut it to eight and had two opportunities to cut it below 10, it was in the third quarter — five minutes to go, six minutes to go in the third quarter. So you put yourself in a position, and then they go on another little run. We gotta make sure we cut those lulls down on both ends of the floor.”

Despite the run that changed the momentum in Game 2, Kyle Lowry is confident the team will be ready when the ball goes up on Saturday.

“We have no reason not to be confident,” Lowry said. “We got here for a reason. We are in this situation for a reason. It wasn’t by luck. We had to beat two teams, we had to play a regular season. We got here for a reason.”

Toronto Raptors: Kyle Lowry Must Regain His Composure | Hoops Habit

It’s clear at this point that Lowry’s struggles are primarily mental. He appeared to have turned a corner against the Miami Heat in the conference semifinals, scoring 25, 36 and 35 points respectively in the final games of that series.

But so far in this series he has been a shell of himself, averaging 8.5 points and 4.0 assists a game. On the other end of the floor he’s been arguably even worse, as Kyrie Irving has averaged 26.5 points and 4.0 assists per game through two games.

Considering Lowry ranked third for point guards in defensive real plus minus, his lack of focus and commitment on that end of the floor has been disturbing.

Heading back to Toronto, the Raptors need Lowry to regain the poise and focus he has displayed throughout his tenure with the team. Cold spells, while unfortunate, do happen.

It’s clear that the moment is getting to him, but he cannot let that show as much as it has to this point. He cannot mentally check out of the game, and he absolutely cannot literally check out of the game the same way he did in Game 2.

Cavaliers vs. Raptors: Game 3 preview, start time, TV info | Fear The Sword

One thing that’s stood out so far in this series has been the confidence of Tyronn Lue. The Cavs game plan against Toronto has been well constructed and Lue hasn’t been quick to try and change it if Toronto hits a few shots early. The Cavs defense is shelling off the paint and going under screens, baiting DeRozan into taking mid-range jumper after mid-range jumper. Early in games one and two, DeRozan has hit those shots with consistency. He shot 5-7 in game one and 4-5 in game two. But despite his early success, Lue showed confidence in his scouting and DeRozan cooled off in both games. The bait has been too tempting for him so far in this series, as he has only taken six shots total within five feet of the basket and six total free throws. Coming into the series Lue stated that he was going to make Toronto make field goals instead of free throws, and that’s exactly what he’s doing.

The big three has been the catalyst for all of the Cavs success so far in the playoffs. Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving and LeBron James combined for 68 points in game two on a combined 24-43 shooting. The chemistry they have shown together and with the rest of the team has been off the charts in the playoffs.

Coming into game three, the recipe for success is more of the same. The Cavs must continue to beat them up on the boards, defend without fouling and shell off the paint. Nobody on Toronto has played this far into the season before and their tired legs are showing. As long as the Cavs continue to play sharp defense and unselfish offense, the Raptors being able to muster up enough offense to take a game from them feels unlikely.

Raptors’ Adjustments to Watch For | King James Gospel

No free throws for the duo for the first time. This is largely because Lowry passed out on his sporadically timed drives or pulled up for threes and DeRozan pulled up for jumpers. This isn’t just like they wanted to do. Kyrie Irving in particularly played spectacular defense on Lowry. DeRozan’s defenders let him finish 9-17. But that was with going 7-11 from midrange contested jumpers. Add in going 0-1 from the three he got 5 shots in total inside and made two. Lowry finished 4-14 and 0-7 from three. I would say he did well inside, but all 4 of his makes came from the midrange.

Attacking the paint slows down the game for the Raptors and allows them to control the pace. Firstly, it’s because they’re getting to the line. Secondly, it’s because with shorter distances shots rebounds are at shorter distances and improved the Raptors chance of getting the rebound yes, but mainly, getting back on defense.

However, their natural tendencies and a big lead may keep them forcing pull-ups from the outside. Let’s say the Cavs are up 20 at halftime, they might try to chip away in the paint but if the lead doesn’t stop or grows. Hero ball and ill-advised threes appear. It’s what LeBron would call “bad basketball habits”. The Raptors ultimate limitation: bad basketball habits.

Are the Cavaliers this good, or is the Eastern Conference this bad? | Fear The Sword

So the idea that the Pistons and Hawks were mere speedbumps on the road to the Finals seems to be new.

This is not to suggest that Cavs have not been the beneficiaries of some good fortune. A team that some people also thought could challenge the Cavs, the Miami Heat, had to deal with injuries last round, and the Raptors are dealing with an injury to Jonas Valanciunas this round.

But let us at least dispel with the fiction that the Cavs’ first two playoff opponents were bad. The Pistons and Hawks were perfectly fine eighth and fourth seeds, respectively. The Cavs just made it look easy. And for some reason there does not seem to be much mention that the Warriors’ first two opponents were the Rockets and Trail Blazers, hardly the stiffest of competition.

For the Cavs, the answer to all of this probably lies somewhere in the middle. They are playing very well, better than anybody expected; but at the same time, there isn’t another team in the conference with the talent to match them in a seven game series.

Of course, none of this matters. It’s a fun debate to have on Twitter or talk radio, but at the end of the day, we’re likely going to find out the answer if and when the Cavs get their chance to face off with the Warriors or Thunder. Until then, it’s nice to know the Cavs are playing some of their best basketball. Everything else is just academic.

LeBron and the Cavs look unstoppable right now. | Sports on Earth

Then again, the Raptors — or anyone else in these playoffs — haven’t provided much competition for the Cavs. Casey admitted after Game 1 that his team’s rotations have been out of sync since Jonas Valanciunas’ injury. To create more balance with the second unit, Casey re-inserted Luis Scola — who was banished to the bench midway through the first round into the starting lineup in order to try to get Patrick Patterson going. Scola finished a -13 in 14 minutes in Game 2. Patterson scored six points in 29 minutes.

But it was Kyle Lowry’s shooting that has once again become the story for Toronto for the third straight series.

Through two games, Lowry is shooting 8-for-28 from the field. He made his first three-pointer of the series early in the third quarter of Game 2, and is shooting 1-for-15 from beyond the arc in the ECF.

“I’m missing some shots,” Lowry said. “And give credit to their defense, they’re showing hard, they’re rotating, and they’re being active. But I’m getting some good looks that I’ve missed, and I don’t think I’ll be missing many more of those.”

The Raptors survived Lowry’s shooting slump against the Pacers, and waited for him to get going against the Heat. But there’s more urgency against the Cavs. The Raptors need to win four of the next five against a Cleveland team that’s now won 17 straight playoff games against East opponents dating back to last season. It feels as though Toronto has already run out of time in this series waiting for their point guard to get going.

East Finals: Is The Enemy Defeated? | King James Gospel

The Raptors have a lot of talent but are missing THE guy. Is there a thought/sense about blowing it up in the near future?

Superstars are in perpetually short supply. The only one the Raptors have ever had was Vince Carter; Tracy McGrady didn’t fully mature until after he left Toronto.

There’s been no “vibe” emanating from GM Masai Ujiri or anyone on his staff that the core group is on a “win or bust” campaign. That might have been foreseeable had they dropped either earlier playoff series, but here they are in the EC Finals. I think the brains trust would prefer to see if there’s a stud available at #9 in the draft. Given they also have the #27 pick, perhaps they could trade up by offering both picks to Boston who has #3?

So – No to a loud explosion from north of the border this summer, BUT if the Raptors are 19-19 in January, all bets are off.

How much 2016 Eastern Conference Finals Game 3 tickets cost in Toronto | cleveland.com

The first thing that jumps out is regardless of the site, it’s more expensive to get into Game 3 in Toronto than it was for Game 2 in Cleveland the night before that game.

The least expensive seats available in Toronto cost less than $123, while it cost Cavaliers fans just $87 per ticket for the cheapest non-single seats.

Lower bowl tickets will cost fans hoping to get into the Air Canada Centre nearly $30 more than the least expensive seats in Quicken Loans Arena’s lower deck.

Game 3’s most expensive courtside tickets, however, are less expensive than they were in Game 2. At their largest amounts, Game 3’s most expensive seats cost more than $4,000 less than they did for Game 2 in Cleveland.

Toronto Raptors Need Kyle Lowry Before It’s Too Late | Tip of the Tower

It’s likely a combination of both physical and mental fatigue that is troubling Lowry. But when you look across the court and see LeBron James consistently leading his team, and even igniting the crowd with a two-handed reverse slam, it leaves something to be desired as a Raptors’ fan.

Lowry obviously doesn’t have the same skill set as LeBron, but his value to the Raptors is similar to what LeBron means to the Cavs. Unfortunately, what Lowry does well, which is command the offence in half court situations and get to the rim, we’ve seldom seen.

His jump shot has been sporadic for 16 playoff games now and by the looks of things it isn’t coming back anytime soon. With that in mind, it’s even more puzzling as to why he doesn’t attack Kyrie Irving.

Irving is an offensive dynamo, but it’s no secret that he is an average defender at best. If the Raptors have any chance of beating the Cavs, they need to exploit Irving’s defence, or at the very least, make him work harder.

If Lowry is incapable of attacking Irving, perhaps running an unconventional high-screen and roll with DeMar DeRozan, someone who has never been shy to attack opponents in iso-sets, would be beneficial.

Five reasons why Lowry is better in the regular season | Toronto Sun

5. TEAMMATES HAVE NOT BEEN AS GOOD, EITHER

Lowry on the court with Toronto’s top reserves laid waste to the NBA this past season, but now they are facing better competition and have also played far worse than in the regular season. Cory Joseph is a -71, Terrence Ross is -73 and Patrick Patterson has dipped to -15 after being a huge plus all year. With Patterson and Bismack Biyombo adjusting to starting and Jonas Valanciunas being out, Lowry has not had as much help as he was used to.

Raptors Showing Frustration For The First Time | Pro Bball Report

It wasn’t just Lowry who stood out, the body language of the whole team as they headed into the locker room at half-time looked like the victims of a drive by shooting. The Cavaliers offensive power can make you look like that.

“You may be seeing something I don’t see,” Casey said after the game. “I don’t see quit. They beat us two games, but I don’t it’s not over yet.”

Casey is right the series is not over. The job of Casey and the rest of his coaching staff is to not yell and scream at their players, because it’s not their fault the Cavaliers are the better team. What they have to do is their best job of convincing them that it’s us against the world. The Raptors aren’t that bad. Counting the playoffs, they have won 64 basketball games this year, and in the regular season they did beat Cleveland in two out of three times (both times in Toronto).

But in reality, this is how a team becomes playoff tested, getting beat by a team that was expected to be in the NBA Finals. When this series is over, the Raptors will know what it will take to contend for a championship in the future.

Being around this team like I have all year I expect them to come out flying at home in Game Three trying to win one for the home fans, but the frustration is starting to show. It’s only human nature when you finally run into an opponent who is better than you and you can’t find anything to stop them.

Changes Toronto Raptors Can Make For Game 3 | Raptors Rapture

The Cavs don’t have the best of individual defenders. Irving and Love, while improving on that side of the ball, are still a major weakness that Toronto seem to purposely avoid exploiting. When Irving switched onto either Patterson, Biyombo or Scola in Game 2, neither of the Raptors big men were able to post up and score over a player much smaller than them. If they had been able to succeed in these sets, chances are LeBron or Thompson would have come over to double, thus leaving open either another big man in the post or one of Lowry, DeRozan and Carroll on the perimeter. It should have led to at least a couple of easy buckets and also caused Cleveland’s head coach Tyronn Lue to switch around his line-up. The main reason why Toronto fail to achieve such an efficient mode of basketball offense is that more times than not their ball handler either settles for a mid-range shot or dribbles back out to the perimeter, which allows the opposition time to regroup and reorganize their defense. It also means there’s a lack of spacing for players like DeRozan, who enjoys getting to the free-throw line, to dribble into the paint and draw the foul. Cleveland have yet to experience legitimate foul trouble and it’s no surprise. At this point, Toronto’s offense seems to be hurting them more than helping them.

Per RJ’s Snapchat, Cavs cannot get into Canada | Reddit

Cavs are being held up by customs trying to get into Canada. Story via RJ’s snapchat.

Did I miss something? Send me any Raptors-related article/video to rapsfan@raptorsrepublic.com