Is anyone else still on high from Game 3? The Toronto Raptors turned in a terrific and spirited performance against the Cleveland Cavaliers, preventing a sweep, proving they belong in the conference finals, and making it a series once again in the process. The obituaries some took to writing were just a little premature, and the Raptors sense a real opportunity to put the pressure on the Cavs if they can take Game 4 at home on Monday.
That change in energy, the buzz around the city during a beautiful long weekend, and the holiday-capping night game should all make for a raucous environment. And maybe a tipsy one. Expect that to be a factor, as both teams – and Toronto’s earlier opponents – have all paid lip service to the impact the Toronto crowd is having on each game. That’s awesome to hear, and it should be further fuel for a crowd that really hasn’t needed any additional motivation to get loud. (Now if GameOps could just chill and let the noise make that impact organically…)
None of that is to say Game 4 is a forgone conclusion or will be anything close to easy. The Raptors took one of their best shots at Cleveland on Saturday, and the Cavs responded with a dud. There’s little chance Cleveland plays that poorly again, and Toronto may have to be even better to take a second in a row. They’ll need the role players contributing in meaningful, game-changing ways again, they’ll need their All-Star backcourt duo scoring efficiently again, and they’ll need to set the tone early in terms of aggression and physicality again. They can do those things. They haven’t consistently, but they’ve shown they can. They have to Monday.
The game tips off at 8:30 p.m. from the Air Canada Centre. ESPN has the game in the U.S., with Mike Breen, Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson, and Doris Burke on the call, while TSN has the Canadian broadcast and Sportsnet 590 has radio rights. Monty McCutchen, David Guthrie, and Derrick Stafford are the officials.
Required reading
Here’s what you need ahead of Game 4, assuming you haven’t been keeping up.
*Shyam has you covered with the full game preview. The Cavs will be without the suspended Dahntay Jones, and the Raptors could get Jonas Valanciunas back after he was upgraded from out to doubtful and then from doubtful to questionable.
*The Raptors sent a message last game, thanks in part to a huge game from Bismack Biyombo. Cory Joseph was a major contributor who may have flown under the radar.
*Cooper broke down the stretch of play where the Raptors locked the game up.
Unrelated to the series, friend of the site Andrew McNeill has launched a Kickstarter for a quarterly print basketball magazine that I’m really excited about.
Raptors updates
Jonas Valanciunas was moved from out to doubtful to questionable since Game 3, a pretty major development. He participated in shootaround and the team was going to see how his sprained ankle responded in the afternoon. he’s still been dealing with soreness, but he’ll test the ankle before the game and make a determination from there. If he can play, Dwane Casey said he’ll be limited.
If he can’t go, it speaks well for his potential Game 5 status on Wednesday.
If he’s good to go, expect him to come off the bench (Casey said he’s still the starter once 100 percent, but he won’t be that Monday). Not only will Valanciunas likely be limited, Casey probably won’t want to disrupt Bismack Biyombo’s rhythm right now, and Biyombo’s shown he can hold down the spot. What’s more, the Valanciunas-Luis Scola frontcourt would be untenable against the Cavs’ attack. Playing Valanciunas against either Kevin Love or Channing Frye is risky defensively if his mobility isn’t all the way back, but if he’s coming off the bench, Casey can better pick and choose his spots with the Lithuanian. With the Cavs toying with more Frye-Love combo pairings, that could mean more Tristan Thompson with second-unit groups, which would represent good times to deploy Valanciunas.
“I’m sure they will,” Casey said of the Cavs attacking Valanciunas if he can go. “It’s tough because his best matchup is probably Tristan Thompson, and when they go to the second unit, they space the floor out a little bit.”
Whatever the rotation iterations, Valanciunas would be a boon to the offense and present a bit of a challenge for the Raptors defensively when the Cavs are stretchy. He’ll be a net positive overall, but those hoping for the Valanciunas who was peaking at both ends of the floor before the injury may want to temper their expectations just a little.
UPDATE: Valanciunas is active and available.
Raptors projected rotation
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Delon Wright)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, T.J. Ross, (Norman Powell)
SF: DeMarre Carroll, James Johnson, (Bruno Caboclo)
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson
C: Bismack Biyombo, Jonas Valanciunas, (Jason Thompson), (Lucas Nogueira)
Their may not be many rotation changes if Valanciunas isn’t back. Casey seems comfortable with Scola starting, and it seems like it’s gotten Patrick Patterson going again a little bit. So long as Scola’s stints are short at the beginning of each half, it’s not the end of the world, though his leash should be short in the event he plays closer to Game 2 (middling) than Game 3 (admittedly effective against Love).
“Luis is probably the most decorated player on our team,” Casey said. “He’s been there before. The moment’s not gonna bother him. He gives us a lot…It’s not a mystery he’s starting. There were some matchup issues (with IND/MIA), and he has a better matchup in this series.”
And yes, Terrence Ross probably stays in the rotation ahead of Norman Powell. Casey’s shown he’ll limit his minutes if necessary, but the team values his shooting too much to not see what he’s got night in and night out.
The more important thing for the Raptors than rotation changes is sticking to the schematic tweaks from Game 3. They found the middle ground between their Games 1 and 2 strategies in terms of guarding James post ups, finally started backing off of him and going under screens, and when they managed to force the ball out of his hands, they sent heavy pressure at Irving on the ball and had their fours body up Love physically. Those same strategies may not work against a team with that much talent – sometimes, guys are just going to beat a good defense – but you’d rather the Cavs be trying to beat you with 15 J.R. Smith 3-point attempts than the type of looks they were getting in the first two games. Who am I kidding? I just want Earl to shoot for the 3-point attempt record (18).
Check back before tip off to confirm the starters.
Cavaliers updates
Other than Jones getting suspended for punching Biyombo in the unmentionables, the Cavs are ready to roll. Matthew Dellavedova seems over his ankle issue, Kyrie Irving has his “wind” back, and everyone else is as healthy as guys can be in late May.
Cavaliers projected rotation
PG: Kyrie Irving, Matthew Dellavedova, (Mo Williams)
SG: J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, (Jordan McRae), (Dahntay Jones)
SF: LeBron James, Richard Jefferson
PF: Kevin Love, (James Jones)
C: Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye, (Timofey Mozgov), (Sasha Kaun)
Other than the aforementioned Love-Frye pairing (and those two with James should be deadly), the Cavs may not change a whole lot. They were bad on Saturday, but that was more a matter of execution and a team-wide (less James) malaise rather than anything fundamentally wrong with how they approached the first three games. Frye and Love playing together changes their bench units, and it may make it tricky to play the Benchnik Termites (Dellavedova-Shumpert-Jefferson-James-Frye) as much. It’s probably worthwhile still – the James-Love-Frye trio terrifies me, and it’s seemed like something Ty Lue is keeping in his quiver until absolutely necessary. (Take it as a sign of respect, then, that they may deploy it here.)
Check back for an update on the official starters.
Pre-game news and notes
*Casey once again stressed the importance of keeping an even keel and not getting too high after a win. “We’re going to get their best punch,” he said. As for managing energy, Casey would “rather say whoah than giddy up,” so expect some energy early.
*He also pointed out that the Raptors tried to limit Irving, and while he thought some of the schemes were effective, he also conceded that he missed some good looks. I rewatched the tape for the third time today and some of the Irving/Love/Smith misses were of the how-are-they-that-open variety. The Raptors missed a lot of those same looks in Games 1 and 2, and like Toronto expected that to normalize, so, too, will Cleveland. That’s a little scary and a reminder the Raptors can still do an even better job defensively (something Lowry suggested at shootaround in calling Game 3 a “7.5” out of 10).
*Toronto’s priority remains to be taking away the paint, and the three after that. Casey didn’t seem too upset with how many 3-point attempts they allowed in Game 3, probably because they only allowed 20 points in the paint. Still, “We gotta get our butts out there and contest.”
*LeBron is “A monster, out of respect, not a bad monster,” according to Casey. He’s a big friendly monster, I guess.
*Lue said Biyombo’s physicality was an issue last game, and guards cracking back is a big part of their strategy to neutralize him. He also mentioned Biyombo’s physicality, and I’ll use this opportunity to point out once again that Biyombo is one flagrant point (a Flagrant 1 or Flagrant 2) from earning a one-game suspension. Biyombo didn’t seem too worried about it at shootaround, and Casey said he trusts that Biyombo is smart enough to play his game without getting tossed. They better hope so.
*”Look for a heavy dose for Kevin,” Lue said. So the Cavs and Raptors will have far more Love in their lives than your boy.
Assorted
*Here’s your Game 4 swag update:
Looks like no crowd pattern tonight. Just a straight whiteout. pic.twitter.com/9xMtrjJ7t3
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) May 23, 2016
*Want some more cause for optimism? NumberFire gives the Raptors nearly a 10-percent chance of winning the title.
OoOo this @numberFire graphic is 🔥🔥. pic.twitter.com/fcsTYf82JM
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) May 23, 2016
The line
Game 1: Cavaliers -10.5 (Cavaliers 115, Raptors 84)
Game 2: Cavaliers -11.5 (Cavaliers 108, Raptors 89)
Game 3: Cavaliers -5.5 (Raptors 99, Cavaliers 84)
Game 4: Cavaliers -6.5
Series: Cavaliers -2500 (implied probability of 96.15 percent, slightly lower than after Game 1 [the series was off the board after Game 2])
The line for this one somewhat strangely opened larger in Cleveland’s favor than Game 3. I say strangely not necessarily because Toronto’s Game 3 win should have told everyone anything substantially new about the series (most of us believed they had a game like that in them in the series), but because we also didn’t learn anything to suggest Cleveland is suddenly even further ahead of Toronto. Valanciunas could return, there are no other notable changes to either side, and while Cleveland should definitely be expected to bounce back, this essentially seems a bet on them doing so and then some, relative to the Game 3 line. There’s a ton of noise in a single-point swing, of course, but it can all only lead us to one conclusion: You’re all right, and the fix is in.
Referees 11, NBA $$$$$$$, LeBron James 5, Other 0
