On the heels of one of the biggest victories in franchise history over the Cleveland Cavaliers just two days prior, the Toronto Raptors are back at it again tonight. And this time, they’ll be taking the court in hopes of tying their best-of-7 series at 2 games apiece.
The effort we saw from the Raptors in Game 3 was in the eyes of many, somewhat expected. Although the result was in question, fans, players, and the basketball community expected the Raptors to fight for something this time around in front of their home fans. With thousands lined up hours before tip-off at Jurassic Park, and the hope of an entire nation on their side, the Raptors delivered an inspired performance, fueled by the scoring of DeMar DeRozan, the unbelievable defense and rebounding of Bismack Biyombo, and timely contributions from Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, and when he was on the floor not being whistled for questionable fouls, Kyle Lowry.
Home is where the heart is
The Raptors have faced the Cavaliers a total of 6 times this season, including the regular season, and are now 3-3. They’re a perfect 3-0 at home, and 0-3 on the road. In fact, the performances at home and on the road have been so vastly different, that it makes one wonder whether the home arena really has that much of an impact on this series.
In the regular season, the Raptors were +7 at home in 2 games, shooting over 50% from the field, 40% from 3, and averaging 101 points per game. In their lone road game during the regular season, the Raptors still shot the ball reasonably well at 49% from the field and 42% from the 3, but were dismal on defense giving up 122 points on 55% shooting. The Raps were also outrebounded 40-26.
And while coming into this series, the regular season was by no means expected to be a frame of reference for the playoffs, it pretty much has been exactly that. In their 2 road games thus far against the Cavs in these playoffs, the Raps are -25, and this time were outplayed on both sides of the ball. They shot a combined 41% from the field, 25% from 3, and averaged only 86.5 points a game (the Raps are a top-5 offense in the league that averaged more than 102 points a game in the regular season). On the other hand, in their one home game against the Cavs in this series, it was domination on the defensive end, and the Raps (mostly Bismack Biyombo) actually outrebounded the Cavs 54-40.
So, somehow, playing at home against these Cavaliers seems to get the competitive juices flowing for the Raptors, while playing on the road seems to intimidate them, and take out the energy they seem to play with at home. Encouraging sign coming into tonight? Yes. Something I’d bet on happening again? Not sure.
The game plan – picking the poison
So, while playing at home is comforting, it can’t be the whole story. The game plan for Dwane Casey’s squad will have to consider all that went right in that game on Saturday night, and what kinds of things they can bottle and bring to the table once again in tonight’s tilt against Cleveland.
It sounds simple, but defense is probably going to be the biggest key in this one. In their 3 losses against the Raptors this season at the ACC, the Cavaliers have shot 45% from the field (regular season) and 35% in the playoffs. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving have shot a dismal 20-88 from the field collectively in those 3 games. So, in all likelihood (one would hope), the defense outside the painted area is not likely to be the concern. The story of the series thus far has been the Raptors’ trade-off in their defensive schemes in either guarding the 3, or guarding inside (one, usually at the expense of the other). In Cleveland is an entirely different story, but at the ACC, the defensive game plan should be, when given the option, to always defend the paint. The Cavs aren’t likely to shoot lights out from outside at the ACC, but you never know and would rather live with that, than giving them the straight line drive to the basket (especially in light of the way this series is being officiated, drives to the basket will lead to scores or free throws for Cleveland).
Cleveland Cavaliers Shot Chart – Games 1 and 2 @ Cleveland
Cleveland Cavaliers Shot Chart – Game 3 @ Toronto
It’s also important to note the Raptors are 3-0 when holding Cleveland to under 100 points this season, and on the flip side, are 0-3 when the 100-point threshold is exceeded. That means 2 things – defense and a slow pace wins. The Raptors should get out and go when they have clear easy baskets, but otherwise, should slow the game down, try to get to the line, and avoid live-ball turnovers that will send Cleveland dashing down the other end of the court for transition baskets or dunks. Especially with LeBron on the court.
The officiating
One of the recurring themes in this series has been the seemingly overwhelming respect the Cavaliers have gotten from the officials. The Raps have been whistled for 73 fouls in the 3 games thus far, compared to just 46 against the Cavaliers. The disparity was especially large in the most recent game where the Cavs were only whistled for 10 fouls. 10 fouls!! On the road, and in a clearly physical game played in the playoffs, that was a bit odd. And Dwane Casey sure took notice.
Casey was fined $25K by the league on Sunday for his post-game comments after Game 3 where he repeatedly bashed the officials for the lack of balance in officiating the series. While Casey respected the officials and their abilities, he made it clear his team wasn’t getting the respect it deserved.
That’s not to mention the egregious flopping from LeBron James, who seemed to embellish contact on at least 3 occasions (in one case after taking a hit from his own teammate).
Prior to Game 2 tipping off, DeMarre Carroll suggested that LeBron’s “acting” was “something to think about” in this series.
VIDEO: DeMarre Carroll Calls Out LeBron James For “Acting” On Fouls
JV’s status
JV’s status coming into tonight’s game was upgraded to questionable yesterday afternoon. Valanciunas’ progress has been slow and steady, but has been on target and treated cautiously thus far by the Raptors training staff. Valanciunas will be re-evaluated today and his status for the game will be confirmed closer to tip-off. Obviously, having JV in the game offers the Raptors a dynamic offensive punch on the inside that can cause the Cavs fits. Not to mention, it would slide Biyombo over to the second unit, providing a more balanced rebounding attack for the Raptors in both their bench and starting units (the Raptors are 0-2 in the series when outrebounded).
The Line
The Cavaliers remain 6 point favourites coming into tonight’s contest, a line similar to Game 3. The question will be, the Raptors obviously had at least 1 game of fight in them – but can they deliver 2? The Cavaliers will be as determined as ever to finally steal a win in Toronto, to put themselves in a position to wrap up this series in Cleveland on Wednesday night and give themselves sufficient rest going into an NBA Final. I expect the Cavaliers to make plenty of adjustments with respect to guarding Biyombo on rolls to the basket, guarding DeRozan effectively for 48 minutes, and crashing the glass more effectively as team. Not to mention, I don’t expect Irving and Love to go 4-28 from the field again. My heart says the Raptors have a solid chance to win this one, but my head says though it will be close, the Cavs got this (probably by less than 6). Hoping to God I’ll be wrong.
