Greetings, from a Greyhound bus somewhere just outside of Buffalo on the way to Cleveland. For the first time, your boy is hitting the road to cover a game. It probably doesn’t make sense from a content-creation perspective, but how many opportunities am I going to have to be covering a conference finals? If you’re hitting the road for the game, too, hit me up on Twitter and let me know – despite the mid-week game, the short drive should allow for a fair contingent from The North.
And damn, is this game ever big. Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the series tied 2-2. At some point, the Raptors have to win a road game if they’re to punch a ticket to the NBA Finals, and honestly, there’s a chance. There was always a chance, but after turning in two terrific performances in a row, that chance seems a lot more realistic now. And yes, they still have to win two more games, and do so on three tries, but they just took two. It’s entirely doable, however unlikely that has and will continue to seem to those outside of Toronto.
Their skepticism will be founded, of course. The Cavs will bounce back and likely won’t play as poorly as in Game 3 or shoot as coldly as in Game 4. They’re at home, too, which has proven to be big all year when these two teams meet. LeBron James looms, playing exceptionally well but yes to completely take over (and sounding like he could be due for a statement game after saying he was happy about his own individual performance in Game 4, a not-so-subtle real-life subtweet of his frigid-shooting teammates).
The Cavs can adjust, they can play better, and they can lean on James and their home crowd. And like in Games 3 and 4, the Raptors can overcome again.
The game tips off at 8:30 p.m. from Quicken Loans Arena. ESPN has the game in the U.S., with Mike Breen, Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson, and Doris Burke on the call, while Sportsnet has the Canadian broadcast and TSN 1050 has radio rights. Mike Callahan, Ed Malloy, and Tom Washington are the officials.
What happened in Game 4
Raptors 105, Cavaliers 99 | Box Score | Quick Reaction | Podcast
Key to the game: There was a bit of the unsustainable at play, with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan shooting 21-of-30 on contested shots and the Cavs shooting 8-of-29 on “wide open” threes over the last two, but those things don’t get erased by the small sample. Lowry and DeRozan were smart in picking their spots and securing the matchups they want against the Cavs’ defenders, and both proved willing to keep the ball moving. They were terrific, and while Lowry always gets credit for his defensive effort, DeRozan has really stepped up in that regard in the last two games, too. Defensively, the Raptors finally seemed to find the balance between leaving defenders alone on a James island and over-helping, limiting Cleveland to 20 points in the paint, coaxing James into jumpers, and forcing shooters to beat them. Said shooters responded by going 10-of-29 on uncontested threes, an attempt number that’s too high but a clip Toronto can certainly live with.
Recap: This thriller brought out the feels. And yeah, I was wrong on “Cavs in 5,” but I couldn’t be happier about it.
Turning point: More on this in the 11 am slot today, but the Cavs scored on 14 consecutive possessions over a nine-minute stretch from the late-third to mid-fourth. That initially cut Toronto’s lead from 11 down to one (it was once 18), and eventually erased it. It was Toronto’s ability to keep up and score with the Cavs during this stretch that kept them afloat, and the defense was able to lock in for the final four minutes and close things out.
Reason for optimism: The Raptors have found an offensive rhythm and a defensive confidence. The Cavs, meanwhile, are left searching inside themselves for answers for the first time. Lowry and DeRozan are cruising, Bismack Biyombo is playing great, and Jonas Valanciunas could return to provide an additional wrinkle. God hates Cleveland.
Reason for pessimism: The Cavs probably won’t continue to shoot so poorly over large samples of threes, and the Raptors simply have to chase them off the line more. The Raptors also don’t have an answer for a pet set Cleveland’s James-and-bench unit runs. Lowry and DeRozan are terrific but they (and Cory Joseph) may not be able to hit the same arrays of difficult shots with as much effectiveness. The last time I was in Cleveland is a very bad memory, so the city would probably like to double down on that.
Mid-series Q&A with Fear the Sword
To help re-calibrate with a Cleveland perspective, we reached out to Justin Rowan of Fear the Sword.
Blake Murphy: Well, neither of us expected to be here. I thought the series would be headed to Cleveland with a chance for the Cavs to close out, and you thought I’d finally be getting a break right now. That’s equal parts variance and unexpectedly poor Cleveland performances and an unexpected bounce back to their peak for the Raptors, and any number of other factors. But what’s stood out the most to you? In other words, what did we miss when setting the series up?
Justin Rowan: Math is undefeated. The Cavs had historically great shooting through the first two rounds of the playoffs, but even in games one and two their shots really weren’t falling from the outside. The Raptors gave them an uncontested rim in the first two games and credit to Dwane Casey in making the proper adjustments. The Cavs missing open jumpers has caused them to go away from their ball movement and look a little disjointed. Kevin Love has been especially terrible, but until they start hitting again, this will continue to be a tightly contested series.
Blake Murphy: Are you concerned about Kevin Love? Kyrie Irving had a poor night in Game 3, J.R. Smith in Game 4, but Love’s slump is a little extended now, and he looked pretty uncomfortable in Game 4.
Justin Rowan: Yes. He hurt his right shoulder early in the series and appears to be guarding it/struggling to play through it. Having him playing like himself and knocking down shots is really important to what the Cavs do and contrary to popular belief, he’s a strong post up defender and will be needed with Valanciunas returns. I’m not super concerned about his ankle injury in game four, but it’s another thing you can add to the list right now.
Blake Murphy: What can the Cavs do to slow down Lowry and DeRozan? LeBron James is seeing more time on DeRozan, but it seems the Cavs are only able to stop one of them at a time. Could James draw Lowry for stretches? Is this suddenly a huge Dellavedova series? What’s the adjustment here?
Justin Rowan: In Game 4, Lowry and DeRozan went 21-30 on contested jumpers (when the defender is within 3-½ feet of the shooter). I thought the adjustment of LeBron on DeRozan was a wise one, but credit to them in both making tough shots down the stretch in Game 4. I expect to see more trapping in the remaining games, similar to what the Heat and Pacers did. In the Cavs’ Game 4 comeback, they started trapping and were able to get the ball out of Lowry’s hands at times. That forced Biyombo, Carroll, Patterson, etc., to make read and react plays instead of their All-Star guards. Testing their composure, especially in the hostile confines of Quicken Loans Arena, seems to be the logical next step.
Blake Murphy: Are you still confident in Cleveland taking care of business here?
Justin Rowan: This isn’t going to make me any fans here, but yes. Game f4 to me felt like Game 3 of last year’s NBA Finals, except on the other side. After the Cavs went up 2-1 in the Finals I remember immediately emailing people saying we weren’t going to win a game. The Cavs made tough shots, were playing way over their heads and it didn’t feel sustainable. Toronto is obviously a much better team than the leftovers of the Cavs team that made it to last year’s Finals, especially now that Lowry and DeRozan have started playing like themselves again. But it felt like Cleveland started to figure some things out in game four and I expect them to make the appropriate adjustments moving forward. The Raptors finally look like the two seed for the first time in these playoffs, but I still feel confident that LeBron and the Cavs figure it out.
Game 5 updates
The only note on either side is that the Raptors “hope” to get Valanciunas involved. He was active and available for Game 4 but wasn’t used due to the intensity of the environment. Here’s what I wrote yesterday about how to deploy the big man:
A full-strength Valanciunas may be able to do enough damage on the offensive end to account for the downfalls of having to chase Love or Channing Frye, but early on, it’s smart to try to use him where he can have the most success. In Game 4, the Cavaliers pulled Tristan Thompson early to get Frye and Love together, then brought Thompson back in for the bulk of the second. If they do that again, that’s probably the time to try to get Valanciunas work – there was a 4:21 stretch to start the second where Thompson was on the court (the majority of it as the lone big) and Bismack Biyombo was off of it, and while the Raptors went plus-5 during that time, matchup wise, it’s Valanciunas’ best target.
They should probably look to get him at least a few minutes, as Biyombo has played 80 minutes over the last two games. Given the intensity of his style and the energy required to play it, there’s a risk he hits a wall at some point. Or not, it’s Biyombo after all. In any case, he’s been a huge asset for the defense matching up against these stretchier Cleveland groups.
Further to that, Cleveland has occasionally gone on runs when the Raptors go without a true center, and while James Johnson and Patrick Patterson are both playing well, Valanciunas could see time at the expense of that undersized frontcourt duo. (And yes, it kills me to say that, given I’ve wanted to see that pairing all year long.)
Raptors projected rotation
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Delon Wright)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, T.J. Ross, (Norman Powell)
SF: DeMarre Carroll, James Johnson, (Bruno Caboclo)
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson
C: Bismack Biyombo, Joans Valanciunas, (Jason Thompson), (Lucas Nogueira)
Outside of the Valanciunas adjustment, there probably won’t be too many changes here. Casey seems to have settled on his nine-man group for this series. Valanciunas makes 10, so there would be a crunch somewhere, likely with Johnson (Scola’s already playing about the minimum he can as a starter, just enough to let Casey deploy Patterson how they like) seeing fewer minutes. Then again, Casey also seems to be in a “try him out, see what he has today, give him a quick hook” mode with T.J. Ross, and if spacing isn’t at too much of a premium (Johnson is 4-of-6 on threes and has attacked well off the bounce), maybe it’s Ross who loses out in favor of bigger bench-heavy groups.
This is probably going to be the most interesting game in the series in terms of rotation chess. Valanciunas’ return raises questions and forces adjustments for both sides, and the Raptors still need to find a solution for the James-and-bench group that’s killed them through four games (maybe Valanciunas gets some late-third minutes so Biyombo can rejoin the early-fourth Lowry-and-reserves group?).
Cavaliers projected rotation
PG: Kyrie Irving, Matthew Dellavedova, (Mo Williams)
SG: J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, (Dahntay Jones), (Jordan McRae)
SF: LeBron James, Richard Jefferson
PF: Kevin Love, (James Jones)
C: Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye, (Timofey Mozgov), (Sasha Kaun)
Some of the same questions face the Cavs, but the biggest one may be the Frye-or-Love decision late in games. Love hasn’t played in back-to-back quarters and Frye has outplayed him, and I’m not sure Tyronn Lue trusts the deadly James-Love-Frye trio as a defensive unit late in games. Beyond that, I wonder if he gets more aggressive with the bench-heavy group and the minutes of Dellavedova in particular, looking to slow Lowry and DeRozan.
And then, of course, there’s how he handles Valanciunas. Timofey Mozgov lurks as an adjustment, but it’s a big win for Toronto’s defense if Mozgov is on the floor. Frye and Love are a little underrated as far as defending the post is concerned, but those are both wins for Toronto’s offense. Thompson splits the middle and is probably what both sides would prefer until they’re forced to try something else. The playoffs are so much fun.
The line
Game 1: Cavaliers -10.5 (Cavaliers 115, Raptors 84)
Game 2: Cavaliers -11.5 (Cavaliers 108, Raptors 89)
Game 3: Cavaliers -5.5 (Raptors 99, Cavaliers 84)
Game 4: Cavaliers -6.5 (Raptors 105, Cavaliers 99)
Game 5: Cavaliers -10.5
Series: Cavaliers -1000 (90.9% implied win probability)
Once again we see the market staying strong on Cleveland. After Game 1, the Cavs were given an implied probability of 98 percent to win the series. The line came off the board entirely after Game 2, and despite the Raptors winning back-to-back games, the Cavs are still being given a 9-in-10 chance. And maybe they should, given the cumulative score through four, the signs that suggest things may swing back in Cleveland’s direction, the presence of LeBron James, and home-court advantage. Still, 91 percent? At 2-2? The Raptors may be the underdogs, but if you’re a gambler, a 10-to-1 payout sure seems a worthwhile roll of the dice on these guys, right? Put some respek on my name.
(For what it’s worth, the line implies the Raptors are roughly 1.4 percent more likely to win here at 2-2 than they were at 0-0.)
As for the game line, it’s right in line with the first two games (and continues to suggest a somewhat muted home-court edge in this series). Nearly 60 percent of the action is coming in on Toronto now that the line’s been bid up from Cavaliers -10, and I could see the line pushing back there. I doubt very much the team looks at these kind of things, but if they do, it’s some nice fuel for a team that thrives on being slept on or written off. And it’ll be even more ammunition for the fans and commenters who won’t stop Biyombolieving if the Raptors come out on top again.
