The Toronto Raptors, accompanied by your boy, are back in Ohio to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Unlike the first game, the Raptors aren’t entering with a sense of this being a formality. The underdog, sure, but this is no longer a sweep in waiting, with the Raptors simply attempting to win a game to show they belonged.
They never felt that way, mind you, but that was the general feeling, and that’s no longer the case. The Raptors were rolled by a combined 50 points over two games in Cleveland to start the series, only for the turn to Toronto to produce a pair of exciting, gutty, and impressive victories. The Raptors have revealed chinks in the armor of the Cavs, particularly on the defensive end, and an untimely team-wide shooting slump from long-range has rendered Cleveland unable to just bludgeon their way through it.
On Wednesday, Cleveland is unlikely to shoot or play as poorly, and Toronto may have taken something amounting to their best punch (save for a near-disastrous nine-minute stretch). Outcomes aren’t beholden to likelihoods and certainties, as the Raptors have shown here so far, and a smaller sample nudges things in the favor of the underdog. The Raptors don’t need how they win to be sustainable, they just need it to work, one game at a time.
At some point, it has to work on the road, either here or in Game 7 on Sunday. There’s enough evidence to suggest it won’t that Cleveland remains a prohibitive favorite. There’s enough evidence it just might that the Raptors are setting record ratings, sending hoards of fans to Cleveland for a week-night game, and making the Cavaliers as some difficult questions about how they can correct their seemingly pre-ordained course.
The game tips off at 8:30 p.m. from Quicken Loans Arena. ESPN has the game in the U.S., with Mike Breen, Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson, and Doris Burke on the call, while Sportsnet has the Canadian broadcast and TSN 1050 has radio rights. Mike Callahan, Ed Malloy, and Tom Washington are the officials.
Required reading
Here’s what you need ahead of Game 4, assuming you haven’t been keeping up.
*I’ve got your full game preview here. Obviously, it’s nails, and you should start there. I supplemented it with a breakdown of Cleveland’s nearly game-changing run of 14 straight possessions with points.
*It’s a great time to be a Raptors fan, even for those of us who are happy to be wrong. The Raptors, though, aren’t finished yet.
*Dikembe Mutombo may not have given Bismack Biyombo permission to use the finger wag. Biyombo wants to cut “the media bullshit.”
*Jonas Valanciunas could be involved tonight.
The incomparable Zach Lowe wrote about how the Raptors have made a series of this, and it makes me mostly not want to bother trying to do the same. He’s so good. Looking ahead to the Raptors’ finals opponent, Lee Jenkins wrote a terrific piece on Kevin Durant and the Thunder. Lee is also in the “how can a writer be this good” camp.
This one’s just fun: Human Bed Bug Matthew Dellavedova has his own coffee, and my road-trip partner Alex Wong wrote about it for GQ.
Raptors updates
In the event you’ve been sleeping the last week (god, that sounds good), Jonas Valanciunas is edging nearer and nearer to a return. He was upgraded from out to doubtful to questionable between Games 3 and 4, and was then active and available Monday. Head coach Dwane Casey made the decision not to deploy him at the very intense point of the game that made sense beforehand, and the team’s hopeful he can get some run – and make an impact – in Game 5.
“We’ll see,” Casey offered before the game. “We hope to get him in and find him some minutes and get his feet wet.”
Expect him to be active and available off the bench once again. Valanciunas said he’s not 100 percent but getting close, and he’s ready to go whenever. Here’s what I wrote about his potential involvement earlier in the week:
A full-strength Valanciunas may be able to do enough damage on the offensive end to account for the downfalls of having to chase Love or Frye, but early on, it’s smart to try to use him where he can have the most success. In Game 4, the Cavaliers pulled Tristan Thompson early to get Frye and Love together, then brought Thompson back in for the bulk of the second. If they do that again, that’s probably the time to try to get Valanciunas work – there was a 4:21 stretch to start the second where Thompson was on the court (the majority of it as the lone big) and Bismack Biyombo was off of it, and while the Raptors went plus-5 during that time, matchup wise, it’s Valanciunas’ best target.
They should probably look to get him at least a few minutes, as Biyombo has played 80 minutes over the last two games. Given the intensity of his style and the energy required to play it, there’s a risk he hits a wall at some point. Or not, it’s Biyombo after all. In any case, he’s been a huge asset for the defense matching up against these stretchier Cleveland groups.
…
And to those suggesting he start, Casey said Monday that Valanciunas is the starter once he’s 100 percent, but he won’t be there yet. The combination of Biyombo’s rhythm and the difficulty the Scola-Valanciunas frontcourt has had defensively probably mean it makes sense to bring him off the bench selectively (and there are opportunities, as discussed within).
Then there’s the risk of bringing a regular starter off the bench against a less optimal matchup. Regardless of the matchup, Valanciunas may be called on if Cleveland traps aggressively like they did late in Game 4, too. So…yeah, none of this is easy.
Raptors projected rotation
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Delon Wright)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, T.J. Ross, (Norman Powell)
SF: DeMarre Carroll, James Johnson, (Bruno Caboclo)
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson
C: Bismack Biyombo, Jonas Valanciunas, (Jason Thompson), (Lucas Nogueira)
The question now becomes who loses out because of Valanciunas’ involvement. The easy answer is Biyombo, who is playing at the very maximum of his potential workload given his energy expenditure, but it could also mean a crunch on the wing (Johnson and Ross) as the Raptors go smaller less often. Otherwise, the rotation seems pretty set how it is right now, with the option to call on birthday boy Norman Powell to slow Kyrie Irving if he gets hot.
Check back before tip off to confirm the starters, but they’re likely the same.
Cavaliers updates
The Eunuch Maker Dahntay Jones returns from his one-game suspension and now faces a talent-imposed infinite-game suspension, barring some unexpected garbage time. The Cavaliers are good to go top to bottom, with Kevin Love (knee, ankle, shoulder) a little banged up but toughing it out.
“He’s fine,” Tyronn Lue said, before transitioning to Love’s struggles. “If you miss 10 or 11 shots, so what? you’ve gotta take them with confidence…I’m not really too discouraged about Kevin missing shots.”
Cavaliers projected rotation
PG: Kyrie Irving, Matthew Dellavedova, (Mo Williams)
SG: J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, (Dahntay Jones), (Jordan McRae)
SF: LeBron James, Richard Jefferson
PF: Kevin Love, (James Jones)
C: Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye, (Timofey Mozgov), (Sasha Kaun)
The Cavs will probably be reactionary when it comes to Valanciunas’ minutes, and both sides may prefer the Valanciunas-Thompson matchup. Thompson hasn’t played much late in games, and while part of that is that Biyombo has been winning their battles of late, part of it is just strategic based on the matchup.
“Tristan’s been great,” he said. Asked why Frye’s been playing more, Lue offered it’s to “Get Biyombo out of the paint. I thought it worked early in the first quarter and it also worked in the second half.”
Frye would also serve to draw Valanciunas out of the paint, but both Frye and Love would present an opportunity for Valanciunas at the other end, as covered. Timofey Mozgov may need to be dusted off if Valanciunas plays well, but that’s a win for Toronto’s offense. Whatever happens in the post, it’s probably going to be a matter of a few possessions here and there as Valanciunas works his way back in.
Elsewhere, Lue could call on veteran Mo Williams in order to help further push the pace. Williams has been only a rumor in the series, but if he sees a few mintues at the expense of, say, Iman Shumpert in second-unit groups, he adds additional ball-handling and shooting to make that attack even deadlier (preventing help from the strong corner on Cleveland’s primary pet play). It sacrifices defense, though, and the Raptors have the guards to attack him and the wings (Carroll, primarily) to post him (or Irving, when they hide him) up or hurt him with duck-ins and cuts.
“I like Mo’s pace. I like the way he pushes the basketball,” Lue said.
Lue confirmed there are no changes to the starters.
Pre-game news and notes
*”We enjoy when people count us out. I think that fuels us,” Casey said of being written off so far. “We’re a program that’s trying to get where Cleveland’s been.”
*”No pressure,” Lue said of returning home at 2-2, pointing to the home-court advantage they still enjoy. “The first team that wins on the other team’s floor now has the series,” Casey said.
*Lue acknowledged that the Raptors are doubling James in the post and urged him to “stay aggressive,” but (correctly) noted that James is making the right passers through that. He thinks James could take a few more of the shots the Raptors are daring him to take.
*The Cavs want to push the pace, and that’s part of the reason Williams could see time. Lue also thinks it’s a solution for the Raptors “loading up” on James. The Cavs’ killer run late in Game 4 was a mix of transition and dead-ball looks, but it was the attacks off of turnovers and stops that raised a shrug when trying to suggest how to defend them. The Cavs have too much speed and too much shooting, so the Raptors will have to continue to be diligent in beating the Cavs back across half.
*In terms of defensive adjustments, expect J.R. Smith to be more physical with DeRozan in this one. The sense I got was that the Cavs really don’t want DeRozan getting comfortable early, and Smith seems to prefer playing a more physical defensive style than sink-and-wait. Lue wouldn’t tip his hand, while Casey said the team is prepared for Cleveland to make changes. “It won’t be anything he hasn’t seen before,” Casey said.
Assorted
*No Raptors made an All-Defense Team. Kyle Lowry received nine first-team votes and 43 voting points overall (essentially, he would have been Third Team, if such a thing existed), while Bismack Biyombo received a single second-team vote. Neither had an elite case for a spot, given the competition at their positions and, in Biyombo’s case, his limited role (keep in mind that playoffs don’t matter here). So Raptors have now received votes for Executive of the Year, Coach of the Year, Most Valuable Player, Most Improved Player, Sixth Man of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, All-Rookie Team, and All-Defense Team. Expect Lowry’s name to show up on one of the three All-NBA Teams.
*The Raptors continue to smash viewership records with this playoff run.
Game 4 of Raptors/Cavs was the most-watched basketball game in Canadian TV history. It drew an avg audience of 1.8 million on @TSN_Sports
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) May 25, 2016
Even if it’s not matching, say, the station-owned baseball team on its own historic run a few months ago, it’s still awesome that more people are watching the Raptors now than ever before.
Point of comparison: Jays-Royals Game 6 averaged 5.12-million last year. Still, huge leap for basketball. https://t.co/z8CuRA3zuI
— Eric Koreen (@ekoreen) May 25, 2016
*Here’s your Game 5 swag update:
Cavs rolling with a yellow-out once again. pic.twitter.com/xthBA1s1pd
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) May 25, 2016
Jurassic Park knockoff (non-specific era park) filling up with Raptors fans pic.twitter.com/54giZWQpzD
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) May 25, 2016
The line
Game 1: Cavaliers -10.5 (Cavaliers 115, Raptors 84)
Game 2: Cavaliers -11.5 (Cavaliers 108, Raptors 89)
Game 3: Cavaliers -5.5 (Raptors 99, Cavaliers 84)
Game 4: Cavaliers -6.5 (Raptors 105, Cavaliers 99)
Game 5: Cavaliers -11.5
Series: Cavaliers -1000 (90.9% implied win probability)
The market sure is confident in the Cavs in this one – the line’s pushed from Cavs -10 at open all the way to -11.5 here 80 minutes before tip off. The Raptors, if they know such things, are surely happy, and it’s further ammunition for those fans who are keeping the faith.
