The consensus is that the Raptors need a starting power forward heading into the summer. Assuming that Bismack Biyombo converts his handful of great post-season games into a 1000% raise and bolts town, it would leave a hole on the bench that needs to be plugged. This is exacerbated by Luis Scola being a patchwork starter season, which was an experiment even fans with a strong stomach don’t have an appetite for. The third wrench in the power forward plans comes from Patrick Patterson never quite getting comfortable as a starter, despite given numerous opportunities last year in pre-season, regular season, and the post-season.
We’re going to lose Biyombo and should lose Scola (and Jason Thompson if that counts), so something needs to happen. Barring a big trade which I firmly believe the Raptors aren’t in a position to pull off because they see Terrence Ross and his shooting as a big asset (wasn’t apparently offered in the Ibaka sweepstakes). They’re also smart enough to realize that Patrick Patterson’s defense absolves many a hole in Dwane Casey’s system, which excuses a lot of his offensive inconsistencies.
Let’s not pretend we’re getting a big time free-agent no matter how many of Drake’s albums Kevin Durant owns, so let’s shift focus elsewhere. Glancing at the free-agent market, Masai Ujiri will hope to strike gold again like he did with Biyombo, by scanning the lower tier of mercenaries for a fit. Last year when I did this exercise, I pinpointed Luis Scola, and coincidentally the Raptors ended up signing him a couple days later. Similar to last summer, this year’s low-end power forward has to meet a few requirements.
They have to be able to play with Jonas Valanciunas. I’m not convinced the Raptors are shopping Valanciunas at all, and if anything, should have realized that he’s someone who can carry you in a few games in a playoff series when the opposition is locking down the wings. Getting someone who you don’t have to play at the expense of Valanciunas is a big bonus, and is one of the reasons Patterson is so valuable – you can slot him in smaller lineups, or alongside Valanciunas if the plan is to stay big.
They have to be cheap. We can’t afford to sign a $20M free-agent so you’re bargain-hunting and selling people on a fit which would present them a chance to have a big year, and earn well later. You have Biyombo as a success story to market, but if that’s too much of a sell, signing them to the equivalent of a Pattersonish deal from two summers ago is ideal. I’m told that we have approximately $5M in cap space to work with, so that limits your choices here (helluva lot more on that here).
Their have to be able to shoot and have a respectable offensive game. Well, otherwise we’d just keep Jason Thompson. Luis Scola’s shooting was valuable during the regular season as the Argentinian was committed to converting himself to a stretchish four. The debate of how much defenses actually respected his shot shouldn’t divert from the fact that he had some massive quarters which were the difference between winning and losing. I’m not saying we need Channing Frye, just that at the very least, we need someone who can knock down the mid-range jumper in those late-clock situations where the ball is passed around like a hot potato. You might disagree that having a shooter here isn’t necessary for an offense to flourish (e.g., Festus Ezeli) but I’d suggest that having someone with a David West-type jumper is huge as a pressure release valve.
It’s too much to ask for someone of Biyombo’s defensive caliber, so let’s just settle for this person not being a negative on defense. Biyombo made up for a lot of bad perimeter defense last year and I’m too grounded in reality to think we’re going to get somebody like that again. However, we should target someone who does one thing really well: whether it be rebounding, shot-blocking, or man-defense. Biyombo was great in all three last season, but I’d settle for two, or maybe even one given the dearth of what’s out there.
Ujiri’s unfruitful chase of Ibaka had him thinking along these same lines and now that the creme de la crop is gone, it’s time to look a little deeper.
Someone like Dwight Powell is what I call a “rising role player”. He’s unlikely to be a star in the league, but has shown signs of being a productive NBA player, and possibly a starter. He’s a Dwane Casey-type youngster who loves the gym and is keen on getting better. “The kid basically sleeps in the gym,” Dirk Nowitzki said of Powell. “He never goes home. It seems like every time I come in, he’s in there working, either lifting or running or shooting. He just wants to get better all the time. Now that he’s got some playing time, he’s still working harder than everybody else.”
He’s working to get stronger, is developing a dribble-drive game, and is actively trying to develop into a stretch big. He’s not as strong as you like, and I’d say he’s, more or less, what we hoped Bebe would’ve been by now. The Raptors will feel the rebounding hit no matter who they get to replace Biyombo, but at least Powell eases the blow while presenting a better offensive option. He’s got a cheap qualifying offer and Dallas will likely match any offersheet, but then again Dallas tends to do crazy things. If the Raptors can shed some more cap space and make a run at Powell, it would be a win. Another negative to consider is that we lose the veteran presence that Scola and Biyombo provided.
If Powell’s too much of a project for you, try a guy like Brandon Bass, the 31-year old is highly unspectacular and sometimes looks like he might be pregnant. That hasn’t stopped me from believing that his mid-range game is something that guys like Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan will find invaluable. When those two kick-out after getting stuck on their drives, it’s always to the perimeter for a swing sequence, and rarely to the mid-post where Bass earns his living fishing for jumpers (heh). Until Biyombo discovered that he could take a dribble and two steps to finish, DeRozan and Lowry generally ignored the “underneath” option on their drives. Patterson stays on the perimeter and is rarely in that position, so Bass would offer something a little different. He’s not a three-point shooter but neither was the guy he’d be replacing.
Although technically a small forward, Jonas Jerebko might be an intriguing option. He’s a good three-point shooter, an average rebounder, and a versatile defender which already puts him miles ahead of James Johnson, so if you’re looking to add depth and the ability to play different lineups, Jerebko gives you that. Even at 6’10”, he gets surprisingly overpowered by centers consistently, but that’s not where we’d play him. He’s coming from Brad Steven’s system where he’s developed a very high motor, which Casey has to love. There are similarities to Patrick Patterson’s game, without any huge advantages, which may make his skill-set redundant, but once you pick off the likes of Ryan Anderson off the market, you’re left with second-tier options which is where Jerebko lies. The Celtics could lose him for nothing next summer, so maybe there’s an opportunity to dangle something.
Masai Ujiri’s slam dunk free-agent signing isn’t DeMarre Carroll, but Cory Joseph, Bismack Biyombo, and to a lesser extent, Luis Scola. He’s good at finding value where others aren’t, and arguably very good at raising the floors of players by matching them with the right roster. This summer as the top free agents go into rosier destinations, it’s this innate Ujiri skill that’ll be a big factor in determining the depth and chemistry of next year’s roster.
