July 3 open thread: Is the market setting?

Does the mid-level exception exist?

Through two days of the insane free-agent bonanza of The New Cap Era in the NBA, the Toronto Raptors have mostly been quiet. They re-signed DeMar DeRozan and watched Bismack Biyombo leave, entirely expected moves. And, entirely as expected, they’ve been quiet otherwise. With limited cap resources and the need to potentially leverage the trade market to clear space or land an asset – a trade market that doesn’t open up until July 7 – the Raptors were always likely to be quiet this weekend.

Still, the stagnancy is wearing on some. I understand the impatience, but this is how things were always likely to play out. And it’s July 3.

Some notes, and the MLE market

*The Raptors will receive an estimated $2.5M in luxury tax pay-outs from the 2015-16 season.

*The NBA confirmed its salary cap is set at $94.143M for next season, with a $113.287M luxury tax, $117.287M apron level, and $84.729M floor. These are all almost identical to the estimates we’ve been using in our analysis here, and it means DeMar DeRozan’s first-year salary could come in as high as $26.54M (I have it estimated at $24M below, as that’s the amount at which he’d hit $138M total with the maximum allowable annual raise).

*Teams have spent an estimated $2.45B over 43 contracts.

*Shockingly, by my estimates, teams as a whole are still about $245M below cap floors, with 86 roster spots still open. There’s also about $552M in cap space, ignoring cap holds and exceptions teams can use to exceed the cap.

*What all of this adds up to is that the market is insane. We knew that already, though. What hasn’t become clear yet is the type of player who may be available in Toronto’s salary range. The Raptors can have $5.76M in cap space or the $5.63M mid-level exception if they choose to stay over it (there’s a reasonable argument to be made for doing so), and barring a trade to unload salary, that’s the most they’ll be able to offer a free agent in Year One of a deal.

Here are the players who have signed roughly in that range: Ish Smith ($6M), Wesley Johnson ($6M), Justin Hamilton ($3M), James Ennis ($3M). That’s it. Of 43 deals given out, the Raptors could afford four (plus DeRozan). The market the Raptors are playing in hasn’t been established, really, while names like Darrell Arthur, Jared Dudley, Mirza Teletovic, E’Twaun Moore, Trevor Booker, Jon Leuer, and Anthony Tolliver have been priced outside of Toronto’s range.

The Raptors are faced with doing some bargain-hunting. Masai Ujiri has done well in that regard before, but finding a rotation-caliber forward in the $5-6M range is going to prove a challenge.

Resources

Here’s a quick run-down of some things that may be helpful:

*The full salary cap primer, which explains a lot of why the Raptors have been quiet.

*As a quick refresher, this is what the Raptors’ cap sheet looks at right this second:

cap july 3 am

(Note that Eric Pincus and Albert Random have both amended DeRozan’s cap hold from $15.525M to $15.225M, and I trust their crack at it more than mine, so I’ve followed suit.)

*The follow-up to that, a mailbag that hopefully answers a lot of your questions about the primer.

*A look at how the contracts given out on Day One compare to the Raptors’ deals.

*To help calibrate with the new cap money, here’s a chart comparing what different salaries will take up in the cap this year compared to last year. Basically, you need to change your benchmark for what $10 million means, or how valuable an asset on a cheap (looking at you, Patrick Patterson) or rookie deal is.

%cap

Raptors Rumors

*DeMar DeRozan is back on a five-year deal estimated to be between $137.5M and $145M.

*Bismack Biyombo is gone to Orlando on a four-year deal estimated to be worth $72M.

*The Raptors met with Ryan Anderson, who has since been paid $80M over four years by Houston. They also may or may not have met with Meyers Leonard.

*The Raptors are interested in Pau Gasol, but that could be a complicated chase.

UPDATE: Gasol might command $18-22M, which complicates things further.

*Any lingering Nerlens Noel interest has dissipated.

Reported agreements/close – Friday and Saturday

(Note: I was keeping track source by source originally but lost the handle, so I’ll refer you to the fine work of CBS Sports or USA TODAY Sports for more.)

Re-sign

Mike Conley – Memphis – 5 years, $153M (full max)
DeMar DeRozan – Toronto – 5 years, $137.5-139M (90.9% of max)
Andre Drummond – Detroit – 5 years, $128-130M (full max, with player option on year five)
Bradley Beal – Washington – 5 years, $128M (full max)
Nicolas Batum – Charlotte – 5 years, $120M (78.5% of max)
Hassan Whiteside – Miami – 4 years, $98.6M (full max)
Evan Fournier – Orlando – 5 years, $85M
Kent Bazemore – Atlanta – 4 years, $70M (with player option on year four)
Marvin Williams – Charlotte – 4 years, $54.5M
Jordan Clarkson – L.A. Lakers – 4 years, $50M
Austin Rivers – L.A. Clippers – 3 years, $35M (with player option on year three)
Darrell Arthur – Denver – 3 years, $23M
Wesley Johnson – L.A. Clippers – 3 years, $18Mn

New homes

Al Horford – Boston – 4 years, $113M
Chandler Parsons – Memphis – 4 years, $94M (full max)
Ryan Anderson – Houston – 4 years, $80M
Luol Deng – L.A. Lakers – 4 years, $72M
Joakim Noah – New York – 4 years, $72M
Bismack Biyombo – Orlando a- 4 years, $72M
Dwight Howard – Atlanta – 3 years, $70.5M
Evan Turner – Portland – 4 years, $70M
Ian Mahinmi – Washington – 4 years, $64M
Timofey Mozgov – L.A. Lakers – 4 years, $64M
Eric Gordon – Houston – 4 years, $53M
Solomon Hill – New Orleans – 4 years, $52M
Courtney Lee – New York – 4 years, $48M
Jon Leuer – Detroit – 4 years, $42M
Matthew Dellavedova – Milwaukee – 4 years, $38.4M (offer sheet)
Jeremy Lin – Brooklyn – 3 years, $36M
E’Twaun Moore – New Orleans – 4 years, $34M
Jared Dudley – Phoenix – 3 years, $30M
Al Jefferson – Indiana – 3 years, $30M
Mirza Teletovic – Milwaukee – 3 years, $30M
D.J. Augustin – Orlando – 4 years, $29M
Jerryd Bayless – Philadelphia – 3 years, $27M
Arron Afflalo – Sacramento – 2 years, $25M
Joe Johnson – Utah – 2 years, $22M
Trevor Booker – Brooklyn – 2 years, $18M
Ish Smith – Detroit – 3 years, $18M
Anthony Tolliver – Sacramento – 2 years, $16M
Jeff Green – Orlando – 1 year, $15M
James Ennis – Memphis – 2 years, $6M
Justin Hamilton – Brooklyn – 2 years, $6M

Remaining free agents

Here’s an updated table of remaining free agents and their most common positions in 2015-16, as explained in more detail here.

TeamPlayerAgeStatus2015-16 SalaryEstimated PositionMost Common% of Playing TimeSecondary% of Playing Time
CLELeBron James31.5UFA$22,971,0003.24SF76.6%PF23.2%
OKCKevin Durant27.8UFA$20,158,6223.26SF74.1%PF25.8%
MIADwyane Wade34.5UFA$20,000,0001.88SG81.1%PG15.6%
LALRoy Hibbert29.6UFA$15,500,0005.00C100.0%NANA
DALDavid Lee33.2UFA$15,493,6804.29PF70.8%C29.1%
WASNene33.8UFA$13,000,0004.90C89.6%PF10.4%
INDTy Lawson28.7UFA$12,404,4951.00PG100.0%NANA
GSWAnderson Varejao33.8UFA$9,638,5544.98C97.8%PF2.2%
ORLBrandon Jennings26.8UFA$8,344,4971.01PG99.4%SG0.6%
DALDirk Nowitzki38.1UFA$8,333,3344.42PF58.5%C41.5%
CHIPau Gasol36UFA$7,448,7605.00C100.0%NANA
SASKevin Martin33.4UFA$7,085,0002.10SG90.2%SF9.7%
MILGreivis Vasquez29.5UFA$6,600,0001.09PG90.7%SG9.3%
TORJason Thompson30UFA$6,431,2504.50C50.2%PF49.8%
PORGerald Henderson28.6UFA$6,000,0003.21SF68.9%PF26.2%
WASJJ Hickson27.8UFA$5,613,5004.96C95.6%PF4.4%
HOUJosh Smith30.6UFA$5,400,0004.41PF59.4%C40.6%
DALZaza Pachulia32.4UFA$5,200,0005.00C100.0%NANA
OKCDion Waiters24.6RFA$5,138,4302.11SG87.6%SF11.7%
CLEJ.R. Smith30.8UFA$5,000,0002.22SG77.3%SF21.8%
PHXChase Budinger28.1UFA$5,000,0003.07SF64.6%PF21.0%
PORChris Kaman34.2UFA$5,000,0004.62C62.2%PF37.8%
MEMChris Andersen38UFA$5,000,0005.00C99.5%PF0.5%
NYKDerrick Williams25.1UFA$4,900,0003.54PF53.5%SF46.1%
ATLKris Humphries31.4UFA$4,600,0004.49PF50.6%C49.4%
ORLJason Smith30.4UFA$4,300,0004.88C88.1%PF11.9%
WASAlan Anderson33.7UFA$4,000,0002.91SF91.1%SG8.9%
INDJordan Hill29UFA$4,000,0004.73C73.2%PF26.8%
DALRaymond Felton32UFA$3,950,3131.00PG99.7%SG0.3%
GSWMarreese Speights28.9UFA$3,815,0004.74C76.6%PF20.9%
MILSteve Novak33.1UFA$3,750,000NANANANANA
OKCRandy Foye32.8UFA$3,270,0001.65SG61.6%PG36.6%
PORMeyers Leonard24.4RFA$3,075,8804.15PF85.4%C14.6%
NOPNorris Cole27.7UFA$3,036,9271.06PG94.3%SG5.7%
TORLuis Scola36.2UFA$3,000,0004.13PF86.7%C13.3%
LALBrandon Bass31.2UFA$3,000,0004.53C53.4%PF46.6%
PORMaurice Harkless23.2RFA$2,894,0592.91SF82.2%SG13.2%
ATLKirk Hinrich35.5UFA$2,870,0001.53PG49.6%SG47.9%
PORBrian Roberts30.6UFA$2,854,9401.21PG78.9%SG21.1%
DENMike Miller36.4UFA$2,854,9403.50SF50.9%PF48.5%
MIAUdonis Haslem36.1UFA$2,854,9404.51C50.6%PF49.4%
SASManu Ginobili39UFA$2,814,0002.01SG96.5%SF2.0%
NYKKevin Seraphin26.6UFA$2,800,0004.97C96.7%PF3.3%
BOSTyler Zeller26.5RFA$2,616,9755.00C100.0%NANA
GSWLeandro Barbosa33.6UFA$2,500,0002.13SG85.3%SF13.8%
TORJames Johnson29.4UFA$2,500,0003.13SF87.4%PF12.6%
HOUTerrence Jones24.5RFA$2,489,5304.23PF76.6%C23.4%
HOUDonatas Motiejunas25.8RFA$2,288,2054.14PF85.9%C14.1%
BOSJared Sullinger24.3RFA$2,269,2604.37PF62.7%C37.3%
NYKTony Wroten23.2UFA$2,179,3541.04PG96.1%SG3.9%
DETSteve Blake36.4UFA$2,170,4651.00PG100.0%NANA
WASRamon Sessions30.2UFA$2,170,4651.36PG64.5%SG35.5%
MILMiles Plumlee27.8RFA$2,109,2945.00C100.0%NANA
GSWFestus Ezeli26.7RFA$2,008,7485.00C100.0%NANA
CHIAaron Brooks31.5UFA$2,000,0001.10PG89.6%SG10.4%
LALRyan Kelly25.2RFA$1,724,2503.65PF64.5%SF35.5%
NYKLance Thomas28.2UFA$1,650,0003.87PF86.6%SF13.1%
NYKLou Amundson33.6UFA$1,650,0004.35PF65.0%C35.0%
BKNSergey Karasev22.7UFA$1,599,8402.24SG72.2%SF24.3%
BKNShane Larkin23.8UFA$1,500,0001.00PG100.0%NANA
NOPKendrick Perkins31.7UFA$1,499,2005.00C99.9%PF0.1%
SASAndre Miller40.3UFA$1,499,1871.00PG100.0%NANA
PHXRonnie Price33.1UFA$1,499,1871.01PG98.5%SG1.5%
HOUJason Terry38.8UFA$1,499,1871.40PG60.8%SG38.6%
LALMetta World Peace36.7UFA$1,499,1873.07SF92.1%PF7.6%
MINTayshaun Prince36.4UFA$1,499,1873.20SF80.5%PF19.5%
DALCharlie Villanueva31.9UFA$1,499,1873.88PF81.7%SF14.5%
SASMatt Bonner36.3UFA$1,499,1874.18PF72.2%C22.9%
MIAAmar’e Stoudemire33.6UFA$1,499,1875.00C100.0%NANA
CLERichard Jefferson36.1UFA$1,499,0002.89SF64.1%SG22.3%
CLEJames Jones35.8UFA$1,499,0003.49PF52.0%SF45.3%
SASDavid West35.9UFA$1,499,0004.52C52.3%PF47.7%
NYKSasha Vujacic32.3UFA$1,356,1462.07SG89.5%SF8.8%
MIAGerald Green30.4UFA$1,356,0002.57SF57.4%SG42.1%
GSWBrandon Rush31UFA$1,270,9642.97SF84.9%SG9.0%
LACLuc Mbah a Moute29.8UFA$1,270,9643.43SF56.7%PF42.8%
MEMPJ Hairston23.5UFA$1,201,4402.30SG71.1%SF26.5%
SASBoban Marjanovic27.9RFA$1,200,0005.00C100.0%NANA
WASMarcus Thornton29.1UFA$1,186,0002.52SF51.7%SG44.8%
CHATyler Hansbrough30.7UFA$1,185,7844.90C89.7%PF10.3%
BKNDonald Sloan28.5UFA$1,015,4211.06PG93.9%SG6.1%
SACJames Anderson27.3UFA$1,015,4212.71SF64.7%SG31.9%
LACPablo Prigioni39.2UFA$981,3481.02PG97.8%SG2.2%
SACQuincy Acy25.8UFA$981,3484.10PF89.8%C10.1%
LALRobert Sacre27.1UFA$981,3485.00C100.0%NANA
BKNThomas Robinson25.3UFA$981,3004.45PF54.7%C45.3%
ORLDewayne Dedmon26.9RFA$947,2784.98C98.2%PF1.8%
GSWIan Clark25.3RFA$947,2761.53SG51.6%PG47.8%
SACSeth Curry25.9UFA$947,2761.72SG66.6%PG30.9%
PHIIsaiah Canaan25.1RFA$947,2761.88SG81.0%PG15.7%
PORAllen Crabbe24.2RFA$947,2762.18SG81.9%SF17.9%
CHATroy Daniels25RFA$947,2762.33SG66.8%SF33.2%
BKNWillie Reed26.1RFA$947,2764.71C71.3%PF28.7%
PHIElton Brand37.3UFA$890,6935.00C100.0%NANA
NOPTim Frazier25.7RFA$845,0591.04PG96.3%SG3.7%
NYKLangston Galloway24.6RFA$845,0591.64SG63.2%PG36.3%
BKNMarkel Brown24.4RFA$845,0592.82SF59.1%SG29.8%
NYKCleanthony Early25.2RFA$845,0593.28SF72.3%PF27.7%
GSWJames Michael McAdoo23.5RFA$845,0594.68C68.2%PF31.8%
LALTarik Black24.6RFA$845,0594.98C97.6%PF2.4%
SACEric Moreland24.5RFA$845,059NANANANANA
LALMarcelo Huertas33.1RFA$525,0931.00PG100.0%NANA
OKCNazr Mohammed38.8UFA$352,750NANANANANA
MEMBryce Cotton23.9UFA$228,663NANANANANA
CHAJorge Gutierrez27.5RFA$190,000NANANANANA
LACJeff Ayres29.2UFA$187,7504.80C79.6%PF20.4%
MEMJordan Farmar29.6UFA$111,6831.02PG97.8%SG2.2%
BKNHenry Sims26.3UFA$111,4525.00C100.0%NANA
MIADorell Wright30.6UFA$17,637NANANANANA

Reported agreements/close – Sunday

Re-sign

Jamal Crawford – L.A. Clippers – 3 years, $42M
Dwight Powell – Dallas – 4 years, $37M
Deron Williams – Dallas – 1 year, $10M
Tomas Satorasnky – Washington – 3 years, $9M (was their 2012 2nd-round pick)

New homes

Harrison Barnes – Dallas – 4 years, $95M (agreement to sign offer sheet)
Tyler Johnson – Brooklyn – 4 years, $50M (offer sheet)
Rajon Rondo – Chicago – 2 years, $28M
Andrew Nicholson – Washington – 4 years, $26M
Garrett Temple – Sacramento – 3 years, $24M (player option on year three)
Cold Aldrich – Minnesota – 3 years, $22M
Matt Barnes – Sacramento – 2 years, $12M
Malcolm Delaney – Atlanta – 2 years, $1.5M

Trades
Utah sending Trey Burke to Washington for a 2021 2nd-round pick