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Free Agency Mailbag: Primer follow-ups, targets, and scenarios

Answering some follow-ups to Tuesday's primer. Now we're ready for 12:01.

With free agency now upon us, I thought I’d keep things rolling with another #RRMailbag. If you want to catch up on all the previous mailbags (the last two of which touch on the offseason a fair amount), you can find them all here.

The impetus for today’s mailbag is the amount of follow-up questions to Tuesday’s free agency primer. I strongly recommend going and reading that first, as my answers today will build off of that as a foundation. That annual post is a challenge for me, as it can be tough to toe the line between going into too much detail and not explaining in great enough detail to get points across in full. Hopefully I struck the right balance, but there are plenty of follow-up questions on the specifics and on different scenarios that could play out that this post seemed worthwhile.

As a note, I’m really sorry this is coming up mid-way through Day One instead of before the frenzy started, as some of the questions are already moot. I’ll still try my best to outline the cap theory behind the questions…it just got too busy yesterday during the day and then through the night to get this out any sooner. I also kind of zoomed through some of the questions about targets, because this was already super long, I’m exhausted, and I really don’t have any idea how the middle-tier markets may play out when all the big money is spent.

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Alright, let’s get this money.

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Clearing up the cap primer

From raps-fan: So basically we can’t do anything very meaningful in free agency unless we trade someone to make room?

Blake Basically, yeah. Unless the Raptors trade someone to open up additional cap space, they’re actually better off staying above the cap rather than ducking beneath it for a modicum of cap room (more on this shortly). This is boring and maybe a little disappointing (and certainly anticlimactic), but it doesn’t mean the Raptors are in a terrible place – they just won 56 games, they added two first-round picks, and they were below average by age this past season. You probably can’t project them to take a major step forward, but they’re in good shape to remain an upper-tier Eastern Conference team without a big splash.

And from LeeZ: Blake, you wrote the other day: “DeRozan’s cap hold is much smaller than his salary will be, so the Raptors could leave themselves some additional flexibility by waiting to re-sign him until after they’ve made some other moves.” Give us a scenario as to how this would work. For example, since his cap hold is about 15 mill, could they delay officially signing him and then use that 15 mill, along with the 5 mill or so in other cap room, to offer a player or players a total of 20 mill, and then go over the cap to sign DD to his max contract?

And from a few others: Some form of this same DeRozan-Biyombo question.

Blake: Based on current estimates, you’re talking about at least unloading Terrence Ross and one of the two young centers (Jakob Poeltl or Lucas Nogueira). Shedding Ross alone would get the Raptors in the neighborhood of $15 million to spend to retain Biyombo, but the team would then have four centers and will have ducked below the cap, thereby losing their larger salary exceptions (so they’d hope to swing a young center for a wing or forward on a comparable deal, no easy task).

Biyombo has talked about his willingness to take a home-town discount. Based on the early market for centers on July 1, even $15 million annually would represent a pretty significant discount.

As a reminder from the cap primer, the reason the Raptors can go over the cap to re-sign DeRozan but not Biyombo is because they own DeRozan’s Bird Rights, where as they only own non-Bird Rights on Biyombo. That’s the unfortunate result of Biyombo having only played in Toronto for a season. (And no, DeRozan’s agreement doesn’t change anything here – he only counts as a $15.5M cap hold for the time being, so the Raptors could clear space to sign Biyombo [or whoever], then double back to re-up DeRozan later, using their Bird Rights to exceed the cap.)

From Kevin Peterson: can raptors trade Carroll, Ross and 2 future 1st round picks for durant?

From Hiya_tiger: CTR:+F=”Kevin Durant” “KD” no results found? are you f’ing with me Blake Murphy?

And from a few others: Some form of this same Durant question.

Blake: So, to be clear, Durant was never coming here. Bruce Arthur reported a while back that there was once a sliver of a window but Durant’s people told the Raptors two years ago that he wasn’t coming. That’s entirely fine – that Raptors fans even thought it was possible speaks worlds about how far the franchise has come from an organizational equity standpoint.

Now, in cap terms, the Raptors could have wiggled into the requisite max cap space to chase Durant by renouncing DeRozan and unloading a salary or by renouncing everyone but DeRozan and stripping several roster pieces (and this goes for a Nic Batum or Al Horford chase at the max, too). It would have rendered the Raptors thin, but you accept that to land a talent like Durant, were he ever willing to come. You unload the entire roster to get Durant is you have to.

As for a trade, there’s little value to a sign-and-trade deal this summer (which is why it was an unlikely departure route for DeRozan). Because players can’t get a fifth year or the larger annual raise in a sign-and-trade (nor can they do the one-and-one deal Durant may wind up signing), there’s no player incentive. Because most teams have cap space, there’s little acquiring team incentive. It would still make sense for the Thunder if Durant said “Yo, I’m out, get something for me if you can,” and as a team without adequate cap space, the Raptors would be one of the few teams amenable to such a deal (though the idea of stripping the roster to land him inherently makes the landing place less attractive).

Anyway, all the Durant talk is and was a ton of fun, and I look forward to 2017 and beyond if the Raptors have cap space and can begin to leverage some of their new-found might as a destination franchise.

Blake: I answered this one on Twitter, and Jack has since been waived, but quickly: Because the Raptors didn’t have cap space, they would have had to send salary out to acquire Jack, then waive him. If they needed the space, there would be no problem unloading an equal or larger salary without having to involve Jack, perhaps even picking up a pick in the process.

From Christian Longtin: It seems that if you have the budget, which I assume Toronto has with their playoff run, the key to going over the cap is to extend core players after you sign free agents. So, why oh why did Masai give those big extensions to Valanciunas and Ross at the beginning of the year!?! Jonas may have been a small discount, so I understand but Ross did not sign at a discount rate. We would have an extra 5 million in cap space and we could have signed him for the same amount 10 Mil after the free agent situation is done. Much like the Derozan signing seems to be going to allow the team cap space.

Blake: I would guess the big reason the Raptors gave those guys extensions when they did is to get them at a discount. It sounds crazy, but both of those deals are going to look great by the end of the summer. Teams also see some value in locking guys up for cost certainty, to limit distraction, to create a trade chip for the summer (with salary that’s easy to unload), and so on.

It’s a tough balance to strike, but Ujiri likely valued the certainty and discounts that are easy to move more than set cap space. My guess is he saw how much $$ everyone else has this summer, how thin the free agent market is, and decided based on that to essentially sit out free agency and get everything done early. That makes for a boring couple of days, maybe, but the Valanciunas deal in particular looks like a massive steal, and Ross is going to prove a discount, too.

From JA: If a team was operating under the cap (which is pretty close to what the raps were doing last year prior to Bennet and Thompson contracts?), and they had an open roster spot at the end of the year, what is the largest $ contract a team could offer a player? 1. You have a draft and stash/player that you want to bring over from overseas, but due to contract extensions kicking in the following year on existing players (for example), it would be harder to make the money work the next year. Could you sign the player to a multi year contract for the last game of the year have only 1/82nd of it count towards the cap this year? 2. Second scenario is you are operating near cap and have a roster spot, and you know you will be operating above the cap the following year. Could you offer a 10+ year journeyman a 1 year + 1 non-guaranteed/team option “max contract” (last year was 23M I believe), and only have 1/82nd (approx 280k) hit the cap in the given year?

Blake: I’m a little confused on exactly what’s being asked here, but I’ll try. For No. 1, you wouldn’t do that for a draft-and-stash if it were a first-round pick because they’re tied to the rookie wage scale, and you’d lose a year of cheap labor off the year (this might even be the case for second-rounders, too, since you lose an affordable year in doing so). You will occasionally see this happen at the very fringes, but it’s usually to create a salary-matching chip (look back to Scotty Hopson’s weirdo career). If a player is good enough for them to be worth doing this for, they’re probably either locked up for the year overseas, not willing to lose a year of pay, or not worth losing a year of affordability for. As for No. 2, you need the full amount of the non-prorated salary to do so – so if you’re adding John Salmons for $20M, you need $20M in cap space, even if it’s just for one game and he’ll only earn $250K or so.

I hope I understood the questions correctly here.

From Bears: Can his rights be traded for salary matching in a potential trade or is it only if he agrees to the QO?

Blake: This is about Nando De Colo. The answer is Nando De Co-NO. Once a player is a free agent, he can’t be included in a trade unless it’s a sign-and-trade, and De Colo can’t be sign-and-traded because he was out of the league last season.

Blake: They could try to do things in that order, but the reality in this case is that even doing so, the Raptors couldn’t open up any cap space because the mid-level is larger than their cap space if they renounce all non-DeRozan rights. So the timing would only really matter to make sure they don’t duck below the cap, preserving the MLE (and Bi-Annual Exception). More on this shortly.

Blake: They could not. Once you drop below the cap enough to out-spend an exception, you lose said exceptions. That goes for trade exceptions, too, so the Raptors couldn’t hypothetically deal Ross to create a trade exception, sign someone with the space, then use that exception to acquire someone back (a super fun scenario I mistakenly laid out on a recent podcast when spit-balling crazy ideas that’s not actually allowed).

Blake: My answer’s a bit of a cop-out, because the answer is contingent on information I don’t have. The benefit of the annoying moratorium is that the Raptors can line up all of their ducks, see who they can land, and then time moves accordingly based on what best suits their dominoes. But I’m not privy to those balls in the air, and so I’m left to look at what seems most likely.

What seems most likely is that the Raptors are better off staying above the cap and using exceptions to fortify the roster. Creating enough cap space to land a decent free agent requires giving away an asset on a decent deal (Ross, Patterson, Joseph) for only picks and no immediate help, and it’s unlikely the Raptors could carve out more than, say, $15 million. That might get you Biyombo back or…a Terrence Ross type (Ross would probably get north of $12 million in this market). So in that case, you’re giving up, say, Ross and the ability to use the MLE and BAE to sign someone who probably isn’t that much better than Ross within the team context in the first place (unless there’s some Ujiri magic to be worked, which there may be).

If the Raptors get under the cap by renouncing all of their free agents and delaying DeRozan’s signing, they would have $5.3 million in space plus the $2.9-million Room Exception (which tops out at two years). If they stay above the cap, they get the $5.6-million MLE (up to four years) and the $2.2-million BAE (up to two years). Unless Ujiri has a free agent lined up following a trade, I’d prefer the second option.

Summer scenarios and targets

Blake: In sheer asset value, Kyle Lowry is their best asset. In terms of players who may actually be dealt, the final year on Patrick Patterson’s deal is an incredible discount, Cory Joseph’s on a very team-friendly deal, and Jonas Valanciunas is suddenly drastically underpaid relative to the market. Even Ross is going to look like a trade chip in a few days.

As for Gasol, this one comes up a lot. In terms of sheer market value, he should be able to command a lot more than that. If he is willing to take a discount, I’d guess the Raptors aren’t first on his list, but they might be top five or even top three. He’s not the most natural fit alongside Valanciunas, but if a player who’s still that good and brings that much to the table is willing to come at that kind of a price, you sign him, and figure it out.

Blake: Andrew Nicholson is better than Anthony Bennett. The weird reality of this offseason, though, is that while a buy-low on Bennett was at the league minimum, a buy-low on Nicholson might be a multi-year deal using a chunk of the MLE (or even the whole damn thing if things get weird). I like Nicholson…I think he can be a backup four who can even play a little small-ball five. He’s imperfect, but we’re talking the bargain bin here.

Blake: The honest answer is I have no idea who might be willing to sign at the MLE. Anyone you’re getting in that range is going to be flawed, like a Nicholson. I’d love to say you could convince, say, a Jared Dudley or Marvin Williams to come (a pair of awesome on- and off-court fits), but they might command double what the Raptors can offer. If you’re looking for forwards in the next tier, Jon Leuer is an intriguing offensive piece who might be a mess defensively. Luc Mbah a Moute doesn’t help with spacing at all but might be a decent defensive addition who’s affordable. Maybe Darrell Arthur plays ball if you throw a few years at him?

I don’t know…it’s hard to think with all this vomit in my mouth.

Blake: I would have loved Batum, and it was possible if you were willing to strip the roster down (as explained in the Durant answers above). He’s awesome, fits the team’s time line, is a multi-position defender, a good shooter, a savvy passer, and apparently enjoys the city. Unfortunately, he’s back in Charlotte for five years and a reported $120M. As always, the most likely case with near-max free agents is that they stay put.

Blake: I’d prefer Williams by a fairly significant degree but don’t think he’ll be in Toronto’s price range. Booker probably won’t be, either – I guessed the next Amnesty Provision will be named after him – but if his market is underwhelming, you could do worse this summer at the mid-level amount.

Blake: He can probably command more than the Raptors can offer. I feel like I’m saying this about everyone, but it’s the truth. This market is going to be stupid as teams struggle to get to the salary floor, let alone the cap or tax. Teletovic is a guy I like, but the MLE doesn’t even represent a raise for him – if the Raptors want to get in on guys in this tier, they made need to offer the full four years the MLE allows (and that’s fine, because those deals are always movable anyway). I’d guess Teletovic lands something in the $8-million range (which the Raptors can get close to if they unload one of the youngsters).

Blake: Oh god. A lot. Like, way more than you might think. Zach Lowe estimated Hill could earn eight figures and that a team may give Harkless an offer sheet in that range or higher (to pry him or to force Portland to match).

Rush is probably actually an affordable name – he made peanuts the last two years – but he may wait to see how the Warriors’ offseason plays out, preferring to re-up there and chase another ring if they’ll have him. If he hits the market, he’s a multi-position defender who hit 41.4 percent of his threes last year while playing over 1,000 minutes for the first time since 2011-12. He’d be an injury risk, but he’s not a bad fit as small forward depth, and by all accounts, he’s a good locker room guy.

Blake: He’s probably not going to be a Biyombo redux, but he’s somehow still only 25 years old. He fits the roster as a combo-forward who can bring some energy and score inside and off the bounce, but he can’t really shoot threes and isn’t a very good defender or rebounder. Flawed players like that are the type you may be looking at in this price range, and while I’d probably lean defense over offense if given the choice, I wouldn’t balk at Williams making a few million.

Sorry, vomited again seeing the D.J. Augustin contract. (By the way – a little odd that all the early deals have been for PGs and Cs. It’s making it really tough to figure out what the market for forwards might be like for the Raptors.)

Blake: I’ve thrown him out as a possibility, though apparently the Pistons would like to retain him. I’d prefer someone from the Booker/Teletovic class, but Tolliver spaces the floor and defends bigger players fairly well. Somehow, I’m not even sure he’ll come cheap.

Blake: I mean, I guess. I like Gibson a lot and understand why I’ve been getting asked about him for years, but that swap leaves the Raptors pretty thin on wings and desperately thin on shooting. And raw player quality, yeah, you do that deal, but you’re locking in to playing big and being one of the most shooting-starved teams out there, and you’re going to have to pay a 32-year-old Gibson next summer for it to be more than a rental. Ideally, it would be part of a bigger trade that brings some shooting or roster balance back. It’s also tough to tell which direction the Bulls might be going right now.

From AllStar: Reports on Sportsnet that Raps are interested in Jamal Crawford? Thoughts?

Blake: It’s a very weird report. It would only make sense if the Raptors were unloading a guard, and even then, what Crawford does well is pretty redundant on the Raptors. I love watching that crossover, though.

From Kev: If Hawks lose Horford in free agency for nothing, would the Hawks potentially build for the future and trade away Milsap and Korver? Raps trade: TRoss, Patterson, Wright, Poeltl and Raps 2017 1st round pick (very strong 2017 draft class), Raps Receive: Milsap and Korver

Blake: I really don’t get the impression the Hawks are in tear-down mode. If they miss out on Horford, maybe, but even then I could see them trying to fortify for another decent year and trying to re-up Millsap next summer. If they put those guys on the block, the deal you threw out might be enough, but it’s a lot of long-term assets for one year of two guys into their 30s, and there would be serious competition to land Millsap. Basically, the Raptors would have to feel that deal put them on par with wherever Cleveland is at that point.

(Sorry, I’m not very good with these multiple-domino scenarios. There’s just so much uncertainty right now.)

From Brandon Wilcox: I’m starting to become marginally intrigued by tarick black. I wonder if there’s anything there amd could be a cheap.nab

Blake: He can really only play center, and the Raptors don’t need another one of those. He’s also not very good.

Assorted

Blake: Nothing official, but I’d guess with Davis it had to be something in his interviews. Labissiere going after Maker remains weird to me, but all I really know is that the Raptors liked the guys they took better. We can assume or infer, which isn’t really fair to the players but it’s the only thing we can do from outside. (Unfortunately, neither guy worked out in Toronto, so I didn’t get a chance to feel out such concerns myself, and the organization isn’t going to talk poorly of prospects.)

Blake: I know they liked Sabonis and he showed well at his workout here, but it just came down to the Raptors being really high on Poeltl. They kind of bit their tongue in the pre-draft process with all the talk about having the top pick of the “next tier,” building off of the consensus top eight being talked about. They had Poeltl higher than that, and they’re really excited about both the floor and the ceiling (and virtually nobody – scout or analytic, college or NBA level – thinks he won’t be at least a decent NBA player).

Sabonis is going to be an NBA player, too, and the Thunder were among the teams really high on him. The Raptors just liked Poeltl better, which is entirely justified (I had Poeltl ranked two spots higher, too). I think part of it was Sabonis being a less modern fit at the four and a bit small for the five, whereas Poeltl fits the modern center mold a little better. (We’re splitting hairs here though – most had them in roughly the same tier, and it comes down to fit and preference.)

Blake: They would have been thin. Their rotation would have been Lowry-Wright, DeRozan-Ross, Carroll-Caboclo, Ibaka-Siakam, Valanciunas-Nogueira, with under $10 million in cap space with which to re-up Biyombo or sign another free agent, and then they’d have been filling out the back end with the absolute bottom of the barrel minimum-type guys. More notably, they would have run into a situation in 2017 where Lowry and Ibaka were both up for extensions (and share an agent), seeking the max, and once again with little wiggle room to fortify that core beyond the draft, trade route, and exceptions.

Personally, I thought the asking price was too much, which is saying something, I think, because I’m usually very much the “get me the talent, figure the rest out later” type.

From Brian L: Can I hire you to do my taxes??

Blake: You don’t want that, man.

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