Finally.
It’s finally here. NBA basketball back returtned with a bang last night (or a whimper in the case of the Golden State Warriors), and your beloved Toronto Raptors get their season rolling Wednesday against the Detroit Pistons.
The Raptors, of course, are looking to build on the best season in franchise history, a 56-win campaign that saw them roll to the Eastern Conference Finals. That won’t be easy, and their progress won’t be measured by wins in the regular season. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan return as potential All-Stars, the braintrust of Masai Ujiri and Dwane Casey are locked uo long-term, Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas are seeking breakouts in support, DeMarre Carroll should (fingers crossed) be healthier this time around, and there remains plenty of intriguing potential on the league’s third-youngest roster. A season ago, the Raptors were an elite offense and a slightly above-average defense, and they’ll replicate the former while hoping to stabilize the latter this time around.
The Pistons, meanwhile, made a return to the playoffs for the first time since 2009, putting up roughly average efficiency on both sides of the ball. With a deadly Reggie Jackson-Andre Drummond pairing leading a spread pick-and-roll that resalted in a top-10 frequency of 3-point attempts, the Pistons should be even better offensively with ther addtions of Jon Leuer and Ish Smith, although Jackson’s absence early in the year is a serious short-term threat on the offensive end. Defensively, the Pistons added additional size with Boban Marjanovic in support of Drummond and Aron Baynes, and they shoud continue to be one of the league’s premiere rebounding teams to help account for a pretty conservative on-ball approach. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope remains a menace with no conscience, and Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris could take steps forward in their second turns with the team.
Just a week ago, the Raptors topped the Pistons in exhibition play, with both teams trotting out something close to a regular-season lineup. The Raptors have since lost Lucas Nogueira and gotten Terrence Ross back, while the Pistons will welcome Baynes back into the fold. Neither team was going to tip their hands and pull out all the stops so soon before the season, but they also probably weren’t keeping any major tricks or tweaks in the bag. Banged up though the Raptors are, and for as difficult a test the Pistons pose physically, the Raptors should be expected to open their season 1-0.
The game tips off from the Air Canada Centre at 7:30 p.m. TSN has both the television (all stations) and radio (1050) broadcast, because my dudes Josh Lewenberg and Meghan McPeak just got it like that (or Sportsnet wanted the Cavs’ game Friday, either or).
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To help set the stage, I reached out to Dan Feldman of Pro Basketball Talk, and he was kind enough to help us out. Well, technically, I reached out ahead of the preseason meeting between the teams a week ago, but not much has changed since then, so we’ll just use the same Q&A here and save Dan from us hassling him.
Blake Murphy: I was excited about the Pistons last year and thought they were primed to make a bit of a jump in the Eastern Conference. They kind of did, I suppose, but my optimism has mostly just rolled over to this year, where I could see them fighting for home court in the first round. Am I a little ahead of myself here?
Dan Feldman: No, then maybe. I was leading the “Pistons as No. 4 seed” bandwagon (behind the Cavaliers, Celtics and Raptors) until Reggie Jackson got hurt. Now, I’m not nearly as confident. Not only will the team miss a key player for about a fifth of the season, the Pistons lose a chance to build on the reason I was most optimistic relative to the rest of the East — their cohesiveness. Still, I’m not sure who gets that fourth home-court seed in the East if not Detroit. There’s a big drop after Toronto, and nobody else was banging on the door.
Blake Murphy: For Detroit to take that next step, who’s improvement is most crucial: Stanley Johnson, Tobias Harris, or someone else?
Dan Feldman: Next step? Andre Drummond. If he continues to improve his defensive awareness, focus and effort, that’d go a long way. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope excepted, the Pistons’ defenders behind Drummond leave plenty to be desired. If Drummond can better cover for their slips, that’d make a big difference. The step after that? Johnson, who’s both very talented and very raw.
Blake Murphy: The signing of Jon Leuer made sense from a system perspective, but the price, coupled with what now appears to be a minutes crunch (forcing one of Harris or Marcus Morris off the four), it seems a little expensive. Your thoughts on that addition?
Dan Feldman: The Pistons wanted a taller stretch four for certain matchups, and Leuer fits the bill. He can even play some stretch five against certain opponents. He didn’t come cheap, but it’s always tough to judge who Detroit could’ve gotten instead. With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s deal expiring, it would have been difficult to carve out enough cap space to do better next summer. And that route would’ve also meant being weaker this year. Leuer makes the Pistons better, and it’s important to get players who make the team better. Sometimes, there’s too much emphasis on chasing value. Would you rather have someone who’s worth $9 million and making $10 million or someone worth $2 million making $1 million? Obviously, context matters, but I know how Stan Van Gundy generally feels.
Blake Murphy: I’m not a big Henry Ellenson fan, but with how far he slid in the draft, there’s some value there. Do you think he’ll factor in at all this season?
Dan Feldman: Probably not, barring injuries. The Pistons are deep with big men, and he’s not different enough from Leuer to bring a change of pace.
Blake Murphy: Do the Pistons have enough offensive juice to win games while Reggie Jackson’s sidelined?
Dan Feldman: I’m concerned about the starting lineup with Ish Smith. I’m concerned about the bench unit with Ray McCallum or Lorenzo Brown. Between the two, at least one is likely to produce points at a below-acceptable rate. Losing Jackson stings.
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Raptors updates
Jared Sullinger (foot) and Delon Wright (shoulder) remain out long-term, and the Raptors don’t expect to have Lucas Nogueira (ankle), either. Noguiera wasn’t able to practice Tuesday and head coach Dwane Casey didn’t sound optimistic about his chances. That means the Raptors will be leaning heavily on a pair of rookies in Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl, and that the time is nigh for Jonas Valanciunas to shake off a rough preseason. Expect to see some smaller looks, too, in order to account for the lack of interior depth. Patrick Patterson is the favorite to start, by the way.
Here’s how things would shake out if Nogueira sits:
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Fred VanVleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross
PF: Patrick Patterson, Pascal Siakam, Bruno Caboclo
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl
INJ: Delon Wright, Jared Sullinger, Lucas Nogueira (TBD)
Pistons updates
The Pistons are in pretty good shape outside of the Reggie Jackson (knee) injury. They’ll line up something like this, keeping in mind that Stan Van Gundy will use his wings and forwards pretty flexibly.
PG: Ish Smith, Beno Udrih
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Darrun Hilliard, Reggie Bullock
SF: Tobias Harris, Stanley Johnson, Michael Gbinije
PF: Marcus Morris, Jon Leuer, Henry Ellenson
C: Andre Drummond, Aron Baynes, Boban Marjanovic
INJ: Reggie Jackson
The line
The Raptors are 7.5-point favorites at home for the opener, a line that’s nudged up from 6.5 ion some places. The over-under is steady between 194 and 195, likely owing to both teams playing a bottom-10 pace last year. If you’re not going to be optimistic on opening night, when are you going to be? Raptors 100, Pistons 91.
