Last spring, Jonas Valanciunas looked poised to set the world on fire. He was simply dominant in the first and second rounds of the playoffs prior to going down with an injury, and with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan both struggling to find their shots, the team needed their big man to own the offensive boards and score inside. Jonas even showed signs of improving as a rim protector during the run, holding his own against Hassan Whiteside in the Heat series. There was rampant speculation, including by this author, that this would be the catalyst for his breakout and Valanciunas would become the much needed third star for the Raptors to bring them one step closer to being a true contender in the NBA.
Fast forward to the Olympics, and Valanciunas submitted a disappointing performance. He struggled to get position and looked uncomfortable defending, never really finding effectiveness on either end as Lithuania was unable to contend. His coach called him out publicly after the team lost in the quarterfinals to Australia, and Raptors fans weren’t sure how to respond to the performance. Was he still hurting from the playoffs injury, were the playoffs just a blip and not a sign of true progress, or was the team in Lithuania simply mis-using him?
The Raptors, for their own right, appeared to have confidence in the 24-year old center. There were comments from the All-Star guards and from coach Dwane Casey that the team would try to integrate the big man more in their offense, and in the opening night win over Detroit it appeared the playoff version of Valanciunas was back, as he put up 32 points and 10 rebounds, put Andre Drummond in early foul trouble, and threw down a vicious dunk over Boban Marjanovic. It looked like the playoff promise had delivered, and the team was ready to use their 7-foot Lithuanian more. But, fast-forward 20 games, and Valanciunas’ usage is down from last year, and he looks disengaged at times on both ends of the floor, frequently showing signs of frustration.
While he’s not the only problem with the starting lineup, and it would be unwise to accept that premise, he’s also not a quick defender and lacks the instincts to make up for teammates mistakes on that end. The Raptors guards frequently give up penetration, last year ranking among the worst teams in the league in terms of keeping their players in front of them. Departed big man Bismack Biyombo excelled at picking up these penetrating guards and slowing them down at the rim, and in that way, he was a better fit than Jonas in these situations. Also, starting a rookie beside him in Pascal Siakam, while Siakam has been mostly good, hasn’t been a great fit. Siakam works hard and is quick and athletic, but he also makes rookie mistakes and is still adjusting to the pace of the game in the NBA. Valanciunas’ numbers are better beside Patrick Patterson, but the team appears committed to keeping Patterson coming off the bench to propel the second units.
On the offensive end, the Raptors are built around penetration from Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, creating either their own offense, or kicking out to shooters, and the team has had the best offense in the league so far in December doing this, with the shooters having found their range. Valanciunas, while great at setting screens to free up either the guards for penetration or shooters to find the catch and shoot opportunities, isn’t a natural fit to get his own offense in these sets, because whether it’s him not finding position to receive the pass or the team simply not sending the ball his way, he doesn’t get the involvement that his talent should demand on this end of the floor.
With Patrick Patterson, Cory Joseph and DeMarre Carroll now having joined Terrence Ross and Norman Powell in hitting their open shots, the team has also found a lot of success running smaller lineups, including a group of Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Terrence Ross, DeMarre Carroll and Patrick Patterson which was used in two games against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers to great success. These lineups play the passing lanes defensively, and create a lot of space offensively with their shooters and the fantastic penetration and passing of the two All-Star guards.
So where does that leave the Raptors? Bebe Noguiera and Jakob Poeltl are both quicker players, and have shown signs of being able to do things defensively that Jonas doesn’t, but they’re also young and inexperienced and you wouldn’t want either of them playing crunch time minutes for a playoff team. If you accept that Jonas isn’t a perfect fit, the solution doesn’t appear to be readily available on the roster. While it’s easy to say they should send out Valanciunas in a trade for a star like DeMarcus Cousins(who brings his own set of issues discussed frequently in other articles here), that solution doesn’t feel ready-made either because the Kings have to make Cousins available, and the price has to be palatable for the Raptors.
For this writer, although I’m a fan of Valanciunas’ game, and I think that he’s got the ability to become a star in this league if given the opportunity to feature in the offense. I also believe that he’s not the sole defensive issue in Toronto and is a poor fit for both the system and surrounding players on that end. However, the conclusion is starting to become clear that all of those things might not matter. The team committed to DeRozan last summer, and will likely do the same for Lowry this year, as well as extending coach Dwane Casey.
As long as those pieces are all in place, it’s unlikely that Jonas will ever be truly featured on the Raptors, and if they aren’t going to utilize his strengths he just doesn’t really seem to fit. It’s not really about whether he’s talented or not, or whether he’s the sole problem, it’s about whether some of the problems can be mitigated without him. If that’s the goal the team might be better suited to approaching this trade deadline by making him available. Not a solution I expected to find myself at this season, but one that seems more and more clear as the season progresses and he just doesn’t seem completely comfortable or happy on either end. With a cap-friendly contract, maybe the returns in a deal can make the difference for this squad.
