Just short of 2 weeks ago the Toronto Raptors faced the Atlanta Hawks and registered their largest margin of victory in franchise history via a 128-84 rout. Toronto won every quarter, stamping the win with a 42-14 final frame. For Atlanta, it represented back to back beat downs to the tune of an 80 point differential (the night prior the Pistons beat them 121-85).
In reality, there were signs the Hawks were in trouble well before December 3rd. After jumping out of the gate with a 9-2 record, the Hawks spiraled downward arriving at the ACC having lost 8 of 9 games. Digging in deeper, the Hawks early success did feature wins against Houston, Cleveland and Chicago. But, their other six pre December 3rd wins came against a group of teams with a 52-87 record. In fact, of Atlanta’s 12 total wins, the 3 highlighted above are the only wins versus teams over .500.
Although Paul Millsap didn’t play in 3 of Atlanta’s losses, including against the Raptors, it was clearly time to make some changes. Coach Budenholzer’s first move was to replace Kyle Korver with defensive specialist Thabo Sefalosha in the starting line-up. Tim Hardaway Jr., also joined the starters, initially because Kent Bazemore was out with a sore knee. Coincidentally, the 2 recent wins occurred with Bazemore out injured. Still, they came against the Heat and Bucks; again, teams under .500.
Who are the Atlanta Hawks?
There are a number of unanswered questions 25 games into the season:
- Did the easy starting schedule mask the Hawks mediocrity?
- Are the Hawks simply experiencing growing pains as they integrate Dennis Schroder and Dwight Howard into the roles previously featuring Jeff Teague and Al Horford?
- Can Atlanta excel in a system that featured ball movement and shooting prowess without the personnel for proper floor spacing?
- At 35, is Kyle Korver on the downside of his career?
- Is the Hawks depth the main issue?
- Do the Hawks have an identity?
In reality, Atlanta’s issues are probably a combination of all these factors. With Korver’s move to the bench, only Paul Millsap remains from the starting line-up of 2014-15 (60-22). Further, the Hawks haven’t experienced significant growth from their youngsters or replaced exiting reserve talent.
Statistical Comparison:
Bench Issues:
Scanning NBA.com stats does provide some answers specifically in terms of the Hawks bench. There has been significant regression since season start. I isolated the past 10 games to compare the Raptors and Hawks benches:
Atlanta’s bench isn’t offering any uptake in any regard and subsequently the Raptors have a true advantage in this area.
Team stat comparison:
Walking Wounded:
Raptors:
- Delon Wright – shoulder, is getting shots up and has been cleared to play one on one, three on three in two weeks and as per the in-game report by Eric Smith in Philly should be game ready by mid January. For full report see Blake’s article here.
- Jared Sullinger – foot, following surgery expected out until mid January. Coincidentally, like Wright his projected return date is mid January. He’s still sporting a walking boot, so I wouldn’t invest any money on a January return date being set in stone. Toronto will likely err on the side of caution here, especially with a winning record and no need to rush Sully back.
- Lucus Nogueira: Bebe didn’t play in Philly due to a sore knee. Rotoworld lists him as day to day. CBS Sports lists him as a game time decision, however they also list Bruno as a game time decision and he played for 905 last night.
Hawks:
- Tiago Splitter – right calf strain/hamstring, as of November 25 the team announced he will miss another 6 weeks.
- Mike Scott is with the Hawks D-League affiliate getting back in shape and apparently won’t join the team until Saturday as per the local Atlanta paper.
All injury reports via rotoworld and CBS Sports
Rotations:
Raptors Starting 5:
Point Guard: Kyle Lowry: 21.2 points, 7.3 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 1.5 steals, shooting 44.7% from 3
Shooting Guard:DeMar DeRozan: 28.0 points, 4.2 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 47.9% field goal percent
Small Forward: DeMarre Carroll: 10.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 37.0% from three
Power Forward: Pascal Siakam: 6.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.4 offensive rebounds, 52.9% field goal percent
Center: Jonas Valanciunas: 12.3 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.0 offensive rebounds, 52.8% field goal percent
Raptors Bench:
Point Guard: Cory Joseph
Shooting Guard:Norman Powell
Small Forward: Terrence Ross
Power Forward: Patrick Patterson,
Center:*Lucas Nogueira, Jakob Poeltl
Notes:
- Nogueira missed Philly outing due to sore knee and is listed (as of this writing) as game time decision
- Fred VanVleet and Bruno Caboclo started for Raptors 905 last night with the team posting their sixth consecutive win. Since the game was in town they could be available tonight. Check Blake’s pregame notes, as he’ll likely have the skinny on whether they are suited up for this one. Side note: Bruno hit 4 of 5 from deep and VanVleet dished 12 assists (man our roster is deep).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNAoJkphz6U
Atlanta Hawks Starters:
Point Guard: Dennis Schroder – 16.5 points, 6.3 assists, 3.0 rebounds
Shooting Guard: Tim Hardaway Jr., – 11.4 points, 1.6 assists, 1.8 rebounds
Small Forward: Thabo Sefolosha – 7.8 points, 2.0 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2.0 steals
Power Forward: Paul Millsap – 17.0 points, 3.6 assists, 8.3 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 1 block
Center: Dwight Howard – 13.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, 1.0 steals, 1.5 blocks
Hawks Reserves:
Point Guard: Malcolm Delaney
Shooting Guard: Kyle Korver, DeAndre’ Bembry
Small Forward: Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince
Power Forward: Kris Humphries, *Mike Scott (see note in walking wounded)
Center: Mike Muscala, Ryan Kelly
Notable Player Match-Ups:
Kyle Lowry vs Dennis Schroder: Clearly Schroder is struggling as he transitions into the starting point guard role. Meanwhile, Kyle Lowry is arguably the hottest thing on hardwood of late.
Case in point (have to love this stat):
As per ESPN's Micah Adams – Since Thanksgiving Eve #Lowry has equalled Curry's 3PM (38) ON 35 FEWER ATTEMPTS! #Raptors
— Tamberlyn Richardson (@TTOTambz) December 13, 2016
And it’s gotten even more dramatic since Adams tweeted this out. Since November 23rd, Steph Curry has shot 118 three pointers and made 45 for 38.1%. Meanwhile, Lowry has shot 83 and made 47 for 56.6% – um yeah.
Jonas Valanciunas vs Dwight Howard: Look for JV to have a better outing in this one as he was one of the very few Raptors who didn’t score in double digits. Further, Howard offers the prototypical big JV likes to play against.
Raptors committee of Siakam, Patterson et el versus Paul Millsap: Notably absent in the last outing Millsap is by far the Hawks best player. He is an under rated defender and above average in almost every category. He leads the Hawks in scoring and steals, plus he’s second in assists, rebounding and blocks. The Raptors need to keep a body on him and wear him out because for the Hawks to excel Millsap has to do so much.
Side note: when Millsap was ready to become a free agent in the summer of 2013, I ranted and raved about how the Raptors should go grab him. After the way Hawks management threw his name around this summer in a last ditch effort to keep Horford I’ll be surprised if he re-signs with them. At 31 (32 by summerr) I’m not sure he’s the peg that moves the Raptors over the top, but he deserves a sniff at the very least this summer.
Game Specifics:
Recent History:
Atlanta hold the all-time record 43-37, however the Raptors are 7-2 in the past 3 seasons.
Referee Assignments:
Ed Malloy (#14), CJ Washington (#53), and James Williams (#60)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zugm6SbXUMA
Fan Data:
The Venue: Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON
The Tip: 7:30 PM EST
TV: TSN
Radio: Sportsnet 590 The FAN
The Line:
The Raptors open as 7.5 favorites with an over-under of 214.0 points.
Closing:
The Hawks will be dialed in to get revenge for the December 3rd shellacking when 8 different Raptors scored in double digits. The problem is Jonas Valanciunas was one of the very few who didn’t have a good game, so smart money says JV will want to have a better outing. Last I checked the Hawk’s identity was tied to ball movement and utilization of multiple scorers off the bench. It eludes me how they can enforce their will with the absence of floor spacing or reserve depth, let alone shooting prowess.
That’s not to say the Raptors should take this team for granted, especially after the Sixers just showcased what happens when you do. I’d say Dwane Casey will have his charges dialed in for a strong defensive effort and the Raptors may be ready to make a statement regarding that end of the court.
