I’m a big fan of DeMarre Carroll. He’s tough, he’s a hard worker, and he seems like a great teammate. It’s hard not to appreciate the player he became in Atlanta when they needed someone to step up and guard LeBron in order for the team to keep moving forward. And sure, they never actually got over that hump, never made it to the Finals, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying from Carroll himself or his teammates. It’s for these reasons, because of how much fun he was in Atlanta, and how easy his game was to appreciate, that I’ll never begrudge Masai signing him to that big, 4-year, $64 million contract two summers ago. He couldn’t have been reasonably expected to see the knee trouble coming, or that the team’s second round pick that same summer would turn into a solid rotation player so quickly. None of us knew that Terrence Ross was going to start to put it together.
So when we talk about Carroll, we need to, at least to some extent, remove these factors from the equation of how we got here. We have to be able to separate where we were from where we are, and address the team as currently constructed. Masai Ujiri has done a great job building up this organization and turning it into one to be respected around the league, for both the quality of talent and the quality of contracts. And in a sea of fantastic deals, where it’s hard to find a player playing beneath their pay grade, perhaps Carroll’s is the worst deal. But on plenty of teams in this spend-happy league, his contract would be one of the better ones, and that’s a sign of the solid management we have in Toronto.
There’s two separate issues at play here going forward as well. The issue of the starting small forward spot, which currently belongs to Carroll, and the issue of Carroll as a trade asset. While it’s easy for fans to say that Carroll simply shouldn’t be starting, and should be traded if possible, these two goals are somewhat diametrically opposed. Carroll is 30 years old, and had injuries last year which it’s unclear whether or not he’s completely recovered from. Having the team remove him from the starting lineup would show a lack of confidence in his ability to return to his former self that could certainly impact his trade value.
That being said, with Lowry and DeRozan currently in their primes, the team needs to win now more than they need to preserve the value of assets, so we should look at all options for improving the starting lineup. Let’s start with one caveat here, and I’m not going to into who should be the starting power forward in this space, as that discussion has been had many, many times on this site and others. But lets assume, going forward, that the man holding this position going forward will be Patrick Patterson, and slot in a small forward that fits best beside him.
Lets further assume that starting Cory Joseph in the two point guard set that finishes many games isn’t an option here, both because the team wants to keep Joseph for the minutes Lowry rests and because that group would have trouble guarding many teams, with DeRozan shifting down to the SF position and being forced to guard the Kevin Durants and LeBron James’ of the world. This leaves us with three options, all familiar to Raptors fans, in Carroll, fan-favorite Norman Powell and the enigmatic Terrence Ross.
First of all, all three variations of this lineup have had massive success for the team so far this season, and probably have earned more playing time. Simply looking at the numbers, the Carroll grouping has been the most successful of the three, with a fantastic +26.8 net rating. The Powell lineup has been the best defensive group, clocking in at a 95.9 defensive rating and a +18.7 net rating. With Ross on the floor, the group managed the weakest defensive rating at 106.6, but still had a +18.5 net rating, which is still very good. All three players bring solid spot-up three point shooting when open, so we’ll remove that from the discussion.
The merits of Carroll are simple. He’s the strongest of the three, and the best fit to guard bigger wings. He allows DeRozan to avoid the more physical matchups and save his strength and energy for the offensive end. He is, however, the weakest ball handler of the bunch, and not nearly the fast break threat the other two players are.
Terrence Ross was, prior to Carroll’s arrival in Toronto, the starting small forward, and we’re well familiar with both his benefits and lapses. He’s athletic, can be, when engaged, a good on-ball defender that can even be moved to guarding point guards in certain matchups effectively. He’s been good in the passing lanes this year, getting deflections and steals, and his quickness allows him to recover when he does find himself out of position on defense. He’s also improved this year as a ball handler and distributor. The negative here is that the team likes his scoring punch off the bench, and neither of the other two options provides quite the same effect in that capacity.
Norman Powell, to some extent, we’re still figuring out. One night he’ll look like he’s a second-round draft pick with less than a hundred career games under his belt, getting caught out of position and making line drives to the basket where he seems out of control and barely manages a shot, then the next night he looks like the player he was while DeRozan was injured, guarding the other team’s best wings with poise and creating offense for himself with ease. He’s very quick, and decisive, and aggressive, and has a game that’s easy to fall in love with. Norm has slipped in and out of the rotation for much of this season, alternating starts and DNP-CDs at times, and there are certainly reasons that Casey seems to trust Ross and Carroll more, but it’s hard not to want Norm to be eating more of those minutes.
To be honest, I began writing this article with the goal of making the case for Norm to replace Carroll as the starting small forward. It’s an easy case to make watching the games, as Norm’s game is so easy to love, and Carroll’s game, even when effective, doesn’t have much flash. At the same time, Carroll has often struggled this year, looking too slow to guard the players he’s supposed to stop and at times unable to hit those open 3s that are the
staple of his game. However, the conclusion I’ve come to is that while this is certainly an option worth having in the bag for the team, maybe the best option here is just to put Carroll on a shorter leash for the nights he doesn’t have it while finding more minutes elsewhere for the two younger players off the bench, whether that’s resting the All-Stars more, or playing more small lineups with one of them or DeRozan at the power forward position.
Because if the team is to ever truly move on from Carroll, and trade him to create more minutes for the younger pair, that will require Carroll to maintain his trade value, and the best way to do that is to show confidence that he can become his former self. While it might not look like it from the results, with the team struggling, Carroll beside Patterson has worked for the Raptors and should continue to do so going forward.
