With the Raptors missing Kyle Lowry, we still have not seen this roster at full strength. Because of this, no one, including Dwane Casey likely, really knows how things will shape out with the playoff rotation. A lot of unexpected players have rose to the task every night, but as we see every year, rotations tighten, stars see 40 minutes, and some hard working players slip out of the rotation because there is simply no room.
Let’s assume all pieces will be healthy:
PG: Kyle Lowry (40) Cory Joseph (8)
SG: DeMar DeRozan (38), Cory Joseph (10)
SF: DeMarre Carroll (15), P.J Tucker (23), Norman Powell (10)
PF: Serge Ibaka (26), Patrick Patterson (12), DeMarre Carroll (5), P.J Tucker (5)
C: Jonas Valanciunas (28), Patrick Patterson (10), Serge Ibaka (10)
Out of Rotation: Delon Wright, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira, Bruno Caboclo, Pascal Siakam, Fred Vanvleet
PG:
I expect Lowry to shoulder the load immediately upon his return. There is no reason to believe that he won’t play these minutes, as his injury still allows him to keep in shape. I don’t need to elaborate too much on why Lowry needs these minutes. He is the Raptors glue.
Cory Joseph will also see some minutes at PG, as well as off ball to start the 2nd and 4th quarters. Joseph was a valuable commodity for the Raptors in last playoff run, but he’ll need to be more consistent with Delon Wright and Fred Vanvleet knocking on his rearview window. I expect Casey to be a little more open to giving Delon a shot if Joseph struggles on the defensive end of things.
SG:
This is another obvious one, but Derozan is a guy who is going to play the majority of the games and he will, of course, determine the Raptors fate. If we get first round Demar from last year, we could be in for a bumpy ride. Especially if the Raptors match up with the Heat.
As mentioned, Joseph will get some off ball duties, which will slot into the SG slot.
Norman Powell will also probably get some run, but I believe his minutes are going to slot into the 3 slots more.
SF:
This is where the choices get a little tricky. You have Carroll and Tucker, and I believe the plan going into the playoffs will be to split their minutes, and whichever guy is playing better, will eventually start the game. To me, it seems like Tucker is the favourite to play a few extra minutes, because whether it is injuries or not, Carroll has not been good for the Raptors for two seasons now. His leash will be shortened as we have seen.
Norm will also see some run at the three and I think he is a guy the Raptors will go to against a smaller matchup, and in games where they need a little spark offensively. Norm can certainly provide that and though I only slotted him for 10 minutes, this is all very rough, and I think he has a window of opportunity to play a key role many nights in this postseason.
PF:
Serge Ibaka will undoubtedly see a lot of minutes in the playoffs for the Raptors. He has the rim protection of Biyombo, and the perimeter defense of Patterson. He is a guy the Raptors will rely on for spacing, switching and rim protection. Don’t be surprised if he plays the entire first and third quarter most nights, while subbing back in early in the second and fourth.
Patrick Patterson is another wildcard for this team. He is so valuable on defense, but his spacing and three point shooting is too inconsistent to trust. He does not provide much else besides his defense and the odd open three, but I believe that in certain games, Patterson will play more than Valanciunas, and he will once again be a vital cog to the Raptors success. If you recall game 6 against the Cavaliers last year, Patterson missed four wide open threes at critical points in the game to close the gap. If this team wants to go another level, Patterson will have to hit his shots, but I do think he will have a longer leash than we’ve seen so far during the regular season.
I can also see Carroll and Tucker getting some minutes at the four against certain teams.
C:
Valanciunas is another X-factor for this team. At times this year, he has been the worst defensive player on the court, and at other times, he has been someone fans have pleaded to see more minutes. I am more of the opinion that this team functions better with him off the court, but it is hard to argue with what he provided last postseason before his ankle injury. He was the Raptors best player and though that Valanciunas seems like a distant memory, he was equally inconsistent last season. Look for Val to have his minutes heavily influenced by how he starts off the games, and if he struggles, Patterson and Ibaka will take the lion’s share of minutes at center.
I highly doubt Bebe will play at all besides garbage time.
Obviously, this is all a very rough draft and everything can change with one good game from any player, but I do believe this framework will give the Raptors the best chance to win. What is the rotation you guys would like to see? Comment below!
