Time is running out for the Dallas Mavericks. They’re 3.5 games back of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference and have just 11 games left to play, and with two teams to jump, they can ill afford an off night. That hasn’t stopped them from turning in a stinker with their backs against the wall, but the visiting Toronto Raptors should be prepared to face a hungry opponent.
Things are less stressful for the Raptors, depending on your outlook. With a win tonight, Toronto will clinch a playoff berth, so they’re pretty safe in the grand scheme. They’re also a whopping six games up on a handful of teams for home court in the first round, so that’s more or less a certainty at this point, too. The focus, then, turns to catching up the one game they trail Washington for the third seed, but the catch there is that Boston is just one game back of Cleveland – the Raptors could move up and still wind up with Cleveland in round two. It doesn’t mean moving up is a bad thing, but the Raptors can really just focus on being their best selves and entering the postseason healthy and in a groove.
It’s a nice place to be, even if Kyle Lowry’s impending return still casts some uncertainty over the proceedings. He won’t be in the lineup against Dallas, so let’s worry about that another time.
The game tips off at 8:30 on TSN 1/4 and TSN 1050. You can check out the full game preview here.
Raptors updates
After surviving a game without Serge Ibaka due to suspension, the Raptors will get their starting power forward back, a nice boon at each end. Questions still remain as to Dwane Casey’s rotation – the Raptors’ three most commonly used lineups since the All-Star break have all been outscored despite the team’s 10-5 record and stellar defensive play – and there are questions that need answering sooner than later with the postseason around the corner. They’re perhaps not pressing today, but Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll may be feeling some pressure to improve their respective play ahead of the rotation tightening in a few weeks.
Regardless of who plays well and who doesn’t, can we please do away with the five-man bench unit that defends like hell but can’t score at all and has been heavily outscore? Cool, thanks.
(By the way, there’s still no update on Lowry. He underwent surgery Feb. 28, his two-week check-up showed everything was on schedule, but we never had a firm schedule to begin with. The team only said “hopefully by the postseason,” and Woj said there was optimism he could be back in four-to-five weeks. Five weeks would be April 4, so I guess that’s kind of the date you start to ask more questions at, though I’ve always had April 2 circled as his likely return date because it would be super inconvenient for me, personally.)
UPDATE: DeMarre Carroll is sitting with a sore back. It was announced half an hour before tip, so there’s no information on any level of severity or concern. He fell pretty hard on his back on Thursday, for what it’s worth. P.J. Tucker will probably start in his place.
UPDATE II: Tucker starts, as expected.
PG: Cory Joseph, Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: P.J. Tucker
PF: Serge Ibaka, Patrick Patterson, Pascal Siakam
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira
TBD: None
ASSIGNED: Bruno Caboclo
OUT: Kyle Lowry, DeMarre Carroll
Mavericks updates
It does not appear J.J. Barea will receive a suspension for his Flagrant-2 foul against Blake Griffin the other night, so other than a pair of D-League assignees, the Mavericks enter with a full squad here.
The big difference from the last matchup with the Raptors is that Nerlens Noel will be active, which is a pretty significant change on the defensive end. Noel starting changes Dallas from a very small starting five (Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes at the forward spots) to a very big one (one of those two at shooting guard on DeRozan), and it gives Rick Carlisle plenty of additional options to throw DeRozan’s way. Noel’s found a nice groove in 11 games with the Mavericks, and they’ve been 9.5 points per-100 possessions better with him on the court, though the gain has surprisingly come mostly on the offensive end (there is also a lot of noise here). For what it’s worth, Carlisle refers to Noel as the center and Dirk Nowitzki as the power forward in this look.
PG:Seth Curry, Yogi Ferrell, J.J. Barea
SG: Harrison Barnes, Devin Harris
SF: Wesley Matthews, Dorian Finney-Smith, Nicolas Brussino
PF: Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Powell
C: Nerlens Noel, Salah Mejri, A.J. Hammons
TBD: None
ASSIGNED: Manny Harris, Jarrod Uthoff
OUT: Nerlens Noel
Assorted
- Bruno Caboclo remains with Raptors 905, though he’ll miss a third consecutive game due to that lingering shoulder injury that’s had him in and out of the lineup. Last night, the 905 locked up at least a share of the best record in the D-League for the season, as well as home court advantage throughout the postseason. (Oddly, home court sees them play each Game 1 on the road before returning home for Games 2 and 3, though that has the benefit of meaning the trophy will be raised in Mississauga.)
- For what it’s worth, I’d only expect Caboclo on assignment when the D-League postseason begins April 4. Plans can change, and the NBA club remains the priority, but I think the organization will want the 905ers to be able to close this thing out themselves. On top of that, the Raptors could be looking to trim workload here and there, and the extra depth would be handy (it doesn’t sound like they’ll be resting players, but extra practice bodies could be necessary if guys sit out off-day sessions).
- The Raptors can’t clinch the best record in the league tonight, but they can lock up a playoff berth with a victory. This will be the first time in franchise history that the team has made the postseason in four consecutive years.
- A few of you reached out today for comment on a certain article that went up on a certain site. My response: No comment. Unless it’s planned collaborative content or they ask, I don’t really feel comfortable critiquing someone else’s work.
- Semi-related: I’ll be dropping an #RRMailbag on Wednesday, so tweet me questions with that hashtag by mid-day Tuesday if you want them included.
The line
The Raptors are 1-point underdogs. That might be a bit surprising, given the chasm in records, but Dallas is playing for its life, the Raptors travelled and are without Lowry, and so on. This still suggests Toronto, sans Lowry, is a better team, the edge just swings on account of home court. This is a winnable game. The over-under is way down at 196, and while that seems low, the Mavericks have hit the under in 41 of 71 games with two pushes and the line is nudging toward 195.5.
