By: Jason Lake
Hello again, Raptors faithful. So this has been a hell of a series so far. Just like last year’s first-rounder with the Indiana Pacers, the Raps are getting all they can handle from the Milwaukee Bucks. But has Toronto turned the corner? The new-look lineup with Norman Powell in the starting five and Jonas Valanciunas coming off the bench has worked wonders these past two games, putting the Bucks on the brink of elimination.
You won’t find too many people here at the Republic breaking out the salami and cheese – this series is far from over. But the betting market thinks very highly of the Raptors right now. After a review of the best odds at Bodog, it’s pretty obvious they’re taking it a bit too far; the Raptors are –1000 to win this series, meaning you have to bet $1000 to win $100. The Bucks are +500 to pull of the upset. If you’re the gambling type, and you don’t mind crossing over to the dark side, Milwaukee is your huckleberry.
Five Percent for Nothing
So here’s the deal: Nate Silver and the guys at FiveThirtyEight project Toronto to advance to the second round 84 percent of the time in this situation. That may already seem a bit too optimistic for long-suffering Raptors fans, but let’s give the data wizards the benefit of the doubt. If you convert 84 percent to a fair betting line, you get –525. In other words, if you want to bet on the Dinos to win the series, you’ll be paying a hefty premium to express your love.
On the other side of the coin, the Bucks have the remaining 16 percent in this matchup, which would make +525 a fair price for them to advance. You’d be getting a smaller payout than that at +500 should they win, but only a little bit smaller – just under five percent. When you make a standard single-game bet against the spread, you usually have to pay a 10-percent commission by betting $110 to win $100. People in the gambling world will roll their grandmothers to save five percent.
Norman Conquest
Looking at this scenario in reverse, odds of –1000 would suggest that the Raptors have almost a 91-percent chance of winning this series. Hey, maybe the guys at FiveThirtyEight got it wrong; their projections are Elo-based, using stats from the entire season up to this point. They keep tweaking their methods, so it’s not clear how much weight they give to recent results, but at the very least, the numbers don’t fully account for the late-season additions of Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker.
They certainly won’t have captured the effects of the latest roster shuffle. I don’t mind telling you, I was skeptical at first. I thought Jonas was doing a very good job against Thon Maker on the offensive end. But I see now the value of matching him up against Greg Monroe – especially if it means we get to see Valanciunas play in the fourth quarter when needed. As for Powell, he took a bit of a step back this year, but we’ve all seen what he’s capable of when put in a position to succeed. He’s in that position now.
If you want to bet on the Raptors and you’re looking for more than just entertainment value, I’ll go right back to what I said last time: Bet on Toronto to win the East. They’ve got a 23-percent chance according to FiveThirtyEight, but as we go to press, you can get the Raps at +900 at Sports Interaction. Now that’s a healthy piece of real estate. Or you could go all the way and bet Toronto at +3500 to win the title. They’ve got a 4-percent chance at FiveThirtyEight, so there’s betting value there, too, just not as much. Either way, enjoy the rest of the series, and may the sphere be with you.
