By Jason Lake
Greetings, Raptors faithful. It’s an absolute pleasure to have this opportunity to talk hoops with you, especially when it involves the team I’ve been following since the very beginning – Zan Tabak, anyone? I’ve also been following the Republic since Day One, and I think I can add something to the conversation. Sports betting is my angle, and in our world, the Raptors aren’t treated like second-class citizens. They’re in the VIP section.
You’ll notice when Blake does his Gameday previews, he ends by telling us what the betting line is. Take Sunday’s game against the Philadelphia 76ers; the Raptors were 11-point favorites, meaning they needed to win by 12 points to “beat the spread” and cash in. Actually, if you check the NBA odds at BetOnline, they had Toronto laying 11.5 points before tip-off, thanks to some late money on the Dinos.
Well, they didn’t quite get it done this time. Toronto only beat the Sixers by eight points, 113-105. But more often than not, the Raptors beat the spread, and they’ve been doing it ever since a certain Nigerian we all know and love took over the reins in 2013. Here’s a quick look at how the Raptors have performed both straight-up (no odds) and against the spread over the past four seasons:
2016-17: 46-30 SU, 42-33-1 ATS (through Sunday’s games)
2015-16: 56-26 SU, 45-37 ATS
2014-15: 49-33 SU, 37-44-1 ATS
2013-14: 48-34 SU, 46-33-3 ATS
Aside from that bump in the road two years ago, when the Raps were still giving meaningful minutes to Greivis Vazquez and Tyler Hansbrough, it’s been nothing but net profit since Masai Ujiri was hired as GM. Not only are they winning games, they’re winning by bigger margins than people expect. There you have it, folks: Proof that your Toronto Raptors deserve more respect than they’re getting.
On the 6
This was going on long before Ujiri landed on our doorstep. Toronto has some baked-in qualities that make it an attractive bet, three very important ones in particular: location, location, and location. Nobody south of the border gives a rat’s patootie about the Raptors. It is what it is. So when these people bet a few dollars on their favorite team to beat Toronto – and that’s what most bets are, a little here and there for funsies – they don’t really know what they’re up against.
You’d think that wouldn’t be an issue in this day and age. Everyone who looks at the NBA standings at ESPN can see it plain as day: Toronto is the best team in the Eastern Conference. That’s if they bother to look at point differential, of course. At press time, the Raptors lead the East at plus-4.3, a full point per game better than the second-place Cleveland Cavaliers. So what do the odds say? BetOnline has the Cavs at –275 to represent the East in the NBA Finals, miles ahead of the Raptors at +800.
In case those numbers don’t mean anything to you, let me put it this way: People are so enamored with LeBron James and Friends, they’re willing to bet $275 to win $100 on the Cavs defending their Eastern crown. Whereas a $100 bet on the Raptors would pay out $800 should Toronto do the right thing and make it to the Finals, like nature intended.
Okay, so the Cavs are probably going to crank it up a notch or three in the playoffs. But so are the Raptors, who don’t forget, are 14-6 SU and 11-9 ATS since the All-Star break without Kyle Lowry (+5.58 RPM) in uniform. You do know about RPM, right? Real Plus-Minus? Then you know how important Patrick Patterson (+3.22 RPM) and Lucas Nogueira (+2.69 RPM) and DeMarre Carroll (+1.53 RPM) have been to this team. It’s about defense – another thing that most people don’t appreciate. Maybe the Raptors will be kind enough to give everyone a demonstration later this June.
