Things could always be worse. Instead of losing by 11 points to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals on Monday, the Toronto Raptors could have lost by 19 (last year’s Game 1 against Cleveland), by 30 (Game 2), by 38 (Game 5), or by 26 (Game 6). Kyle Lowry’s back could have flared up. Norman Powell could have been disqualified for low-blowing Kevin Love. DeMar DeRozan could have had to go back to using a shoelace to keep his thumb from swelling. LeBron James could have drank that beer, and then J.R. Smith probably would have torn his shirt off, started a riot, and one of the Raptors would have ended up getting suspended for attacking Dahntay Jones in the fracas that would have resulted. Things could always be worse.
Things could be better, too, though, and the Raptors will look to figure some things out in Game 2 on Wednesday. Lineup and rotation questions hang over everything, because they always do after a loss and because options abound for the Raptors. Imperfect options, but options nonetheless. There is no right way to attack the problems the Cavaliers present, and so it’s about choosing one of the options and doing your damnedest with it. “If it was easy, everybody would do it,” as P.J. Tucker said at practice Tuesday, a nice reminder of last year’s mantra that hard things are hard.
Pick your approach, do your best with it, and don’t wilt from the moment if an opportunity presents itself:
Everyone: “The East is more open than it’s been in years”
Raptors, Game 1: pic.twitter.com/ChEwYLnSJj— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) May 2, 2017
(I don’t mean to pick on Patrick Patterson, it’s just a funny highlight. And I’ve watched it about a billion times and have talked myself in and out of it being a travel a bunch. The human brain is weird.)
The Raptors are underdogs. In this game, this series, this uphill long-term battle to close the gap between themselves and the Cavaliers. They seem to be in a bit of an identity crisis over the last 48 hours or so, questioning their style of play and personnel, which is fine. LeBron James does that. He’s a habitual constitution challenger. The Raptors are good, though, and in the search for answers to the immense problem that is the Cavaliers, hopefully they don’t lose the confidence of self necessary to take a proper swing at the champs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84Bb4VFFUc4
The game tips off a 7 on TNT and Sportsnet on TV and on TSN 1050 on radio.
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Normally we’d do a Q&A with the opposing side here, but we just did that in serious fashion for a series preview, and there was a bit of a scheduling mix-up today. Apologies.
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Raptors updates
Let’s talk about Jakob Poeltl. Yesterday, I wrote about some potential lineup changes the Raptors could explore, because there’s little time to waste here with the failing status quo. Within, I did not give much service the the Austrian rookie, other than to say he’s a nice matchup with the Cavaliers skill-wise, if it comes to that. I didn’t go deeper because I thought him figuring in prominently in Game 2 was unlikely due to the fact that it would basically remove Jonas Valanciunas from the rotation, and because while he’s been really steady in his minutes, the Cavaliers would figure to attack his inexperience pretty relentlessly to see if they can poke holes in his game. Poeltl, after all, played just 626 minutes this season, and the bulk of his 20 postseason minutes have come in garbage time.
But when he’s been given a chance, Poeltl’s looked capable, particularly by the standards of a rookie big. He was a big factor in the pre-break comeback victory over Charlotte that shifted the team’s tides some. A little before that, he’d played nine great minutes against the Boston Celtics, which got him the video breakdown treatment to check in on his overall progress. He had a nice quick cameo in Game 2 against the Milwaukee Bucks, too (he has the highest net rating on the team of anyone who has played 20 minutes or more). He only played the Cavaliers twice this year, in Games 2 and 82 of the season, games that aren’t particularly representative of the two teams that now exist in this series, but he performed well in each.
What I’m saying is: Poeltl is good-ish already, which is incredibly encouraging for his long-term outlook given how slow young bigs normally are to take to the game. He’s an exceptionally smart player, reading and anticipating well on defense, making quick decisions as a passer in four-on-three situations on offense, and proving incredibly savvy (and sneaky!) around the offensive glass. He possesses some nice mobility, which opens up defensive coverage options, and while he’s a little slender and not quite as physical as he’ll eventually need to be, he keeps himself around the rim well, even if he’s had to hedge out or high-wall.
Poeltl is also a rookie, though, and starting a rookie – as Michael Grange of Sportsnet reports the Raptors are giving consideration to – is a big leap. He has barely played in the postseason yet, he was working with the scout team as a Tristan Thompson facsimile as recently as yesterday, and the Cavaliers will work to discover and exploit any shortcomings he has in his game (despite all the positive qualitative factors and garbage-time success, Poeltl had the second-worst net rating on the team during the regular season). He might struggle on the glass opposite Thompson. If James gets a switch in the post, he might bump Poeltl feet at a time with each butt-thrust. Channing Frye has stolen the souls of greater men. He’s shown enough this year to make this decision something less than crazy, and again, in terms of tactics and strengths, he’s a pretty clean fit if you ignore his age and experience. But starting him would be a big shift and a major bet that quickness and length are what the Raptors need to even things out, and while I see the logic, I’m still kind of in “believe it when I see it” mode.
Grange also reports that Norman Powell would accompany Poeltl in the starting lineup, which, again, I get the logic, but it would either mean one of Powell or DeMar DeRozan guarding LeBron James, or one of them guarding Kevin Love while Ibaka takes James, neither of which sound ideal. The Raptors need to try something, though, and the P.J. Tucker for DeMarre Carroll swap still feels both unlikely and perhaps too little. The Raptors could hold steady, too, and give this rotation one more game to figure things out. Anyway, I felt I should address Grange’s report.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carrol, P.J. Tucker, Bruno Caboclo
PF: Serge Ibaka, Patrick Patterson, Pascal Siakam
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira
TBD: None
ASSIGNED: None
OUT: None
Cavaliers updates
The Cavaliers are going to stick with what worked in Game 1, because oh boy, did it ever work. Notable in their rotation, though, was that James sat for just three minutes until garbage time, meaning the Raptors don’t figure to have many pockets of James-less time to make runs. They’ll need to maximize those opportunities, even tweaking their usual rotation pattern if need be to make sure DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are both on the floor in those moments. Toronto was outscored by four with James on the bench (excluding garbage time), and they simply can’t squander those chances.
Also of note, the high-octane James-and-bench lineup got killed by Toronto, because they can’t defend. Like, at all. Part of the reason I’ve been fine with Powell sticking with the second unit is that a very fast, pace-pushing bench seems to be the right way to win the battle between those groups. I know you have to maximize 48 minutes, of course, but Powell off the bench as a punisher of old people and checker of Kyle Korver still seems his best role here. It will be interesting to see if Tyronn Lue tweaks that at all, or if he considers it the product of being up so big early and taking a foot off the gas.
PG: Kyrie Irving, Deron Williams, Kay Felder
SG: J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, Dahntay Jones
SF: LeBron James, Kyle Korver, Richard Jefferson
PF: Kevin Love, Derrick Williams, James Jones
C: Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye, Edy Tavares
TBD: None
ASSIGNED: None
OUT: None
The line
Game 1: Cavaliers -6.5 (Series Raptors +375) (Cavaliers 116, Raptors 105)
Game 2: Cavaliers -7.5
Series: Raptors+650 (implied probability of 13.3 percent)
The big move here isn’t really Cleveland getting an extra point on the line but Toronto’s implied probability of winning the series dropping from 21.1 percent to 13.3 percent. That’s understandable given how Game 1 went, and those choosing to remain optimistic still have the “you’re saying there’s a chance” angle. It’s not like an 0-1 hole is particularly arduous, before controlling for team quality. And FiveThirtyEight still gives the Raptors a 39-percent chance at the series, ESPN’s BPI a 34-percent chance. Historically, underdogs who drop Game 1 have gone 55-316, a 14.8-percent win clip. So, yeah, there’s still room for optimism, even with the line growing in Cleveland’s favor. The over-under is at 213.5, up noticeably from the opener.
