Somehow in the two days between Games 1 and 2, we’ve forgotten to talk about potential Toronto Raptors’ lineup changes. Oh, wait. Yeah, so, the Cleveland Cavaliers pose enough of a strategic dilemma that basically we’ve all been left to yell about starters and see who might be able to bring more of the tangible – speed, length, execution – or intangible – force, energy – to try to kick-start the Raptors. The Cavaliers are good, they’re heavy favorites, and the Raptors figuring out who their best five (and best eight or nine) are for this particular matchup is a pretty pressing matter.
That there’s no obvious right change means we get to do more of this…
More lineup talk – Reported changes are wrong
Dwane Casey wouldn’t reveal who his starters will be for Game 2, but he did at least go so far as to say that predictions that are out there publicly are wrong.
“Not trying to be secretive but we don’t want to give them a heads-up to prepare, who we’re going with,” he said. “Predictions are wrong that are out there…I’m just not revealing information.”
That would seem to be directed at a report from Michael Grange of Sportsnet, who is the only person I can find who went on-record with a report of a potential starting lineup change, saying Norman Powell and Jakob Poeltl replacing DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas was being given “strong consideration.” It’s impossible to disprove that something was given consideration, but since Poeltl was practicing with the scout team as recently as yesterday, I weighed in with a “believe it when I see it” earlier. I did break that option down, as well as some other options.
Publicly, Casey has talked up the need first for quickness and then amending it to talk up anticipation, and the team as a whole has expressed a desire to push the ball better off of misses. Powell would help to that end, but he’s also a pretty good fit pushing against a very slow Cavs second unit, which would also let him continue to check Kyle Korver rather than being tasked with LeBron James or Kevin Love.
There are some other potential moves the team could make, as well, and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out, if they wind up making a change at all. It would be beyond hilarious if the 48-hour content cycle produced no change at all. What else are we going to occupy ourselves with, though? The anxious specter of impending and inevitable doom? Naw, gimme Poeltl breakdowns over that.
For what it’s worth, Grange dug in that he still believes Powell and a player to be named later will replace Carroll and Valanciunas. Kyle Lowry is also predicting a change rather than deferring (somewhat condescendingly) to Casey, as he usually does.
https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/859805030291042305
Eric Smith of Sportsnet, meanwhile, reports that it was Pascal Siakam wearing a starter’s bib at shootaround. Uhh, yeah. The Raptors won some games with Siakam starting, but it was in spite of that decision, not because of it. Siakam owned the worst net rating on the team this season, and while he’s a fast and active defender, his penchant for over-helping is death against a team with as much shooting as the Cavaliers. Cleveland would also ignore him even more than they have other Raptors’ supporting players on the offensive end, gumming up space inside and, if he got the ball, challenging him to force turnovers.
To be fair to Siakam, he’s definitely improved as the year’s gone along, and he could be a big plus in the transition game both ways. It’s hard to translate such performances, but he was terrific with Raptors 905 during their championship run, working as a post-up threat and proving valuable against opposing bigs with some shooting touch. The Raptors could lessen the impact of Siakam’s still-developing outside stroke by playing Serge Ibaka on the perimeter and having Siakam operate as the de facto center, and they may be okay with Siakam defending pick-and-rolls as Tristan Thompson’s primary defender rather than as an option on Kevin Love. Essentially, I only see this working if Siakam works as the five rather than Ibaka, for as much as the difference between those positions matters.
Am I trying to talk myself into this? Trying, yes. Succeeding, no. Siakam, too, was working with the scout team yesterday and hasn’t played a single relevant playoff minute so far (or even since the trade deadline), so this would be a pretty extreme change, and the Cavaliers would be relentless in seeing if they could poke at Siakam on both ends. It’s pretty far down the list of changes I, personally, would try. Just play your best players earlier and more often.
A weird metaphor to explain the bad starts
Nobody has a good explanation for why the Raptors consistently start games and series slowly. DeMar DeRozan’s explanation Wednesday wasn’t a good one, necessarily, but it’s, uhh, interesting?
“We’re like some bad kids, I guess,” he said. “We got to get a whooping before we act right and get in line.”
That’s a way to look at it, I guess? As he continued, it got a little more relevant as to how the Raptors are so able to bounce back rather than why they start slow.
“It’s always great to be able to see first hand your own mistakes, take from it, be a professional, and be able to respond to it,” he said.
That’s a good explanation, for the Raptors and for all teams and for the plexiglass principle in general. Being reactive isn’t necessarily the “best” approach, but being able to adjust and learn and adapt is important, too, especially against a team like the Cavaliers. How the Raptors respond tonight should be fairly telling as to their ability to respond for the series as a whole.
Asked about the goal of just keeping it close this time around, Casey was having none of it.
“Keeping it close?” he responded. “We want to come out with the mentality to win. We’re not here to play horseshoes. We want to make sure we come out and work to win. Not to be trite but we want to come out to compete to win.”
Notes
- I’m not on the road, so a continue thank you to the beat writers providing notes/quotes/updates.
- The Raptors were really talking up the value of moving the ball not just for the sake of moving the ball but for keeping LeBron James on the move and making him defend outside of his free safety role.
- Here’s a cool graphic from Positive Residual on the Raptors’ assist network in Game 1:
Of Kyle Lowry’s 11 assists, 4 went to Serge Ibaka, who had three-pointers on a pair of them. Here’s the full Raptors assist network: pic.twitter.com/itpN2HKwfK
— Positive Residual (@presidual) May 2, 2017
- Also from Positive Residual, DeMar DeRozan had a -5% win probability added in Game 1. DeRozan scored 19 points on 16 field-goal attempts and, qualitatively, his scoring performance was better than that would suggest. But four turnovers, two extra possessions used (free throws), and a team-worst minus-32 rating…even if you’re not a believer in this kind of single-game snapshot, DeRozan needs to be better in Game 2. This note isn’t a DeRozan dig, it just serves as a reminder that everyone has to basically be at the top of their games, from the stars on down, to have a chance here.
- As an update to yesterday’s note about Anthony Bennett being cut by his Turkish team, Kayla Grey of TSN notes that he hasn’t been cut but rather was just left off the Turkish league playoff roster, which caps the number of foreign-born players. He’s expected to be with the team for the Euroleague Final Four. Bennett isn’t playing a big role – he’s averaged just seven minutes in Euroleague games – but it’s nice to hear the reports of him being cut were erroneous.
- I had a dream last night that I ran into Kyrie Irving at a Tim Horton’s on Highway 6. I think the playoffs and sleep deprivation are getting to me.
- As always, shout-outs to the Open Gym team.
