July 4 free agency open thread: Celtics land Hayward for real this time; Patterson leaves

Kyle Lowry is returning on a 3-year, $100-million deal – reaction

Serge Ibaka re-signs on 3-year, $65-million deal – reaction

Patrick Patterson signs with Oklahoma City on 3-year, $16.4-million deal – reaction

P.J. Tucker signs with Houston on 4-year, $32-million deal – reaction

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Today is probably going to be a quiet one. The NBA universe surely would have liked a dead July 4 to enjoy, but that’s never going to happen so long as the free agent moratorium period kicks off July. Plus, there’s the enormous Gordon Hayward domino to fall, which stands to have a huge impact on one of the conferences. From a Raptors perspective, they’d like to move quick to unload salary, but the market for such a move has not at all been kind, to the point that it’s not even really worth speculating right now on what moves they could still make (I mean, you can, but my answer to everything is going to be that it depends on how much salary they can dump and what it costs). I’d guess today is quiet once again on the Raptors front before tomorrow picks back up a bit.

Still, we’ll update with anything that comes in throughout the day.

In the meantime, a quick look for basketball betting tips at the OddsDigger sports betting portal shows that Houston’s moves have really made a difference, pushing them from +2500 to +1000 to win the championship. That’s behind only Golden State, Cleveland, and in some places, Boston. So their aggression is resonating.

Resources & Required Reading

If you haven’t yet, go and read my free agency primer, which goes into a lot of the details about the Raptors’ cap situations and what they can and can’t do. Some other links:

Contextualizing earlier reports of Kyle Lowry’s dissatisfaction
The “right” direction for the Raptors is a matter of perspective, and nobody is really wrong in wanting one path over another
A salary cap Q&A as a follow-up to my primer
The Raptors can find ways to shed salary, but they might be hard to stomach
An explainer on the new two-way contracts and how the Raptors might use them
The Raptors probably won’t be big free agent players, but just in case, some interesting names on the market and a look at Masai Ujiri’s free agent track record

As a quick refresher, this is what the Raptors’ cap sheet looks at right this second, based on the assumption that Ibaka’s deal is completely back-loaded and that Lowry’s deal contains $100 million in back-loaded cap hit:

If Lowry’s cap number only comes in at $90 million over three years and is completely back-loaded, his cap hit for this year could drop by about $3.09 million, which would be a pretty enormous deal. They’d still need to dump salary, but they’d be within one big contract of getting under the tax line. We probably won’t know for sure until the moratorium ends on July 6.

(Notes: I’m displaying this just a little different from yesterday. I’m also excluding De Colo/Thompson from the tax number since their cap holds won’t count but do effect the salary cap. VanVleet has a higher tax number than cap number, too [equal to Powell’s].)

To help calibrate with the new CBA and rise in cap, here’s a chart containing all of the maximums and exception amounts, based on the new $99,093,000-million salary cap (note that for the minimum salaries, those deals can run longer if cap space is used, but they max out at two years if a team is using the minimum player salary exception):

Here are a few other very useful resources:

Raptors rumors

A reminder: There is a ton of information to sort through this time of year. Some of it will be legitimate, some of it will be misinformation. Always consider the source, their track record, and why a player/agent/team may want information out in the world.

Tuesday

10:30pm: Patrick Patterson is headed to OKC on a three-year deal. I wrote about it more here.
7:52pm: Okay, NOW Hayward has signed with Boston. For real this time. No take backs, no erasies.
2:32pm: HOLD UP. David Aldridge reports now that Hayward has not made a decision, and earlier report were untrue. And now everyone is reporting it. Strap in.
2:30pm: In a non-Raptors move that has a pretty big impact on the Eastern Conference, Gordon Hayward is signing with the Boston Celtics, per Chris Haynes. That’s unfortunate, as it makes the top of the East heavier sledding and makes Toronto’s biggest competition to be runner-up to Cleveland a little stiffer.
1:15pm: Nothing’s going on, so I’ll plug some other stuff. At The Athletic, I wrote about the changing NBA market forces and how they played a part in where the Raptors are. For Vice, I wrote about the necessary but unfortunate inflexibility built into how things currently stand. And still no Hayward news. I’m bored.

Where things stand – End of Monday

Kyle Lowry is back on a three-year deal worth a reported $100 million. Bruce Arthur reports that only $90 million of that is guaranteed, but we’ll have to wait to see the contract breakdown before adjusting his cap number, in case the non-guaranteed portion is built into likely bonuses.
Serge Ibaka is also back, on a three-year, $65-million deal.
P.J. Tucker has signed with the Rockets. It hurts.
All quiet on the Patrick Patterson front, though he met with Sacramento and is not expected back with the Raptors.
The Raptors were once in on Amir Johnson but he signed in Philly.
Toronto is trying to shed salary to lessen their tax hit and improve flexibility. There’s nothing imminent there. Indiana signing Darren Collison likely ended any chance of Cory Joseph being flipped there.

Reported agreements/close – Tuesday

The following deals have either been reported as done or in the finalization stages. Until noon on July 6, nothing is absolutely locked in (remember DeAndre Jordan?), but if it’s on this list, it’s done per a reporter on the trusted list.

Gordon Hayward But Actually This Time, Celtics, 4 years, $128M (Gordon Hayward/Shams Charania)
~~Gordon Hayward, Celtics, TBD, TBD (Chris Haynes)~~
Otto Porter, Nets, 4 years, $104M (Offer sheet) (Shams Charania)
George Hill, Kings, 3 years, $57M (Shams Charania)
Zach Randolph, Kings, 2 years, $24M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Patrick Patterson, Thunder, 3 years, $16.4M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Omri Casspi, Warriors, 1 year, $2.1M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Mike Scott, Wizards, 1 year, $1.7M (Adrian Wojnarowski)

Reported agreements/close – Earlier

Steph Curry, Warriors, 5 years, $201M (Shams Charania)
Blake Griffin, Clippers, 5 years, $175M (Sam Amick)
Jrue Holiday, Pelicans, 5 years, $126M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Kyle Lowry, Raptors, 3 years, $100M (Michael Scotto)
Paul Millsap, Nuggets, 3 years, $90M (Shams Charania)
Serge Ibaka, Raptors, 3 years, $65M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Danilo Gallinari, Clippers, 3 years, $65M (Adrian Wojnarowski (3-team sign-and-trade)
Jeff Teague, Timberwolves, 3 years, $57M (Marc Stein)
Kevin Durant, Warriors, 2 years, $53M (Marcus Thompson)
Joe Ingles, Jazz, 4 years, $52M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Patty Mills, Spurs, 4 years, $50M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Andre Iguodala, Warriors, 3 years, $48M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Tony Snell, Bucks, 4 years, $46M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Cristiano Felicio, Bulls, 4 years, $32M (Shams Charania)
PJ Tucker, Rockets, 4 years, $32M (Shams Charania)
Taj Gibson, Timberwolves, 2 years, $28M (Shams Charania)
Shaun Livingston, Warriors, 3 years, $24M (Chris Haynes)
JJ Redick, 76ers, 1 year, $23M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Kyle Korver, Cavaliers, 3 years, $22M (Shams Charania)
Langston Galloway, Pistons, 3 years, $21M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Darren Collison, Pacers, 2 years, $20M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Amir Johnson, 76ers, 1 year, $11M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Nene, Rockets, 3 years, $11M (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Ben McLemore, Grizzlies, 2 years, $10.7M (Chris Haynes)
Justin Holiday, Bulls, 2 years, $9M (Shams Charania)
Jodie Meeks, Wizards, 2 years, $7M (Shams Charania)
Michael Carter-Williams, Hornets, 1 year, $2.7M (Rick Bonnell)
Wayne Selden, Grizzlies, 2 years, TBD (Michael Scotto)
Daniel Theis, Celtics, 2 years, TBD (Adrian Wojnarowski)
Jose Calderon, Cavaliers, 1 year, $2.3M (Jeff Zilgitt)
David West, Warriors, 1 year, $2.3M (David Aldridge)
Ron Baker, Knicks, TBD, TBD (Ron Baker on Twitter)

Trades

The Nuggets sign-and-trade Danilo Gallinari to the Clippers, Atlanta receives Jamal Crawford, Diamond Stone, and a first-round pick, and Denver gets a second-round pick.
The Pacers are trading Paul George to the Thunder for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis. Seriously. (Ramona Shelburne first)
The Wolves are trading Ricky Rubio to Utah for a first-round pick. (A whole mess of people at once)