Flurry of movement doesn’t change much for Raptors title odds

The Toronto Raptors have completed the bulk of their offseason at this point. It’s been a wild couple of weeks, and yet despite all of the movement, it feels like maybe not a lot has changed.

Kyle Lowry was retained on a three-year deal. Serge Ibaka was brought back on a three-year deal. Out went P.J. Tucker and Patrick Patterson in free agency. DeMarre Carroll was shipped off amid some drama between himself and president Masai Ujiri. Cory Joseph was sent out to make room for C.J. Miles.

The biggest change could be that their vaunted Lowry-and-bench units will have an entirely new look this season. The Raptors will put their faith in one of the youngest supporting casts in basketball, looking to Delon Wright, Norman Powell, Pascal Siakam, and Jakob Poeltl to fill roles and potentially even tapping Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Bruno Caboclo, and Alfonzo McKinnie at different points. This is how you have to build around a top-heavy team if you’re not a heavy tax spender (the Raptors currently have the league’s ninth-highest payroll, which seems fair).

It sounded Tuesday as if the Raptors are done most of their shopping. The main roster stands at 14, the extended camp roster at 16, and the cap situation such that adding anything more than minimums and camp deals could push the Raptors into the luxury tax. That’s something they can do, but it’s a bullet they may not want to use in a season in which their championship chances aren’t particularly strong. Paying a heavy tax bill for a winner or a real contender makes good business sense. Doing so in Year 1 of the renewed three-year window, potentially taking away flexibility or budget for the next two years, might be deemed too short-sighted a move

And to be clear, the window for the Raptors to contend is not particularly open this season. Not while an unhappy LeBron James remains with the Cleveland Cavaliers for at least one more season. The potential for him to leave afterward was an argument in favor of keeping the core together for this three-year run, but he’s not a Laker yet (I kid. Maybe.) Elsewhere, the Boston Celtics have gotten better with the addition of Gordon Hayward and some exciting young talent. Still, they may be gearing up to peak in 2020 or so, depending on how the market plays out the next few months. The Philadelphia 76ers will be better, but their window to contend will be at least a year in the future (barring everything clicking and everyone staying healthy out of the gate). The Washington Wizards and Milwaukee Bucks are around to push the Raptors.

For now, the market suggests the Raptors slot right around where they were last season. Looking at NBA betting offers, the Raptors’ championship odds have actually gotten a little longer since the end of the 2016-17 season. The’re currently coming in at +6,600 after starting at +5000, underscoring a minor shakeup in the Eastern Conference.

You can quibble here, like with the Raptors being behind Philadelphia, but there are market factors to consider in the odds, as well as some general biases that take hold in gambling. The real take-aways here are: Cleveland remains a fairly heavy favorite, Boston is the only other team given a legitimate chance, and the Golden State Warriors – still heavy favorites against the entire field – are one of the largest sure-things, on paper, of all-time.

There’s not a lot the Raptors can do between now and training camp to shift these odds much, which is probably both reason not to spend into the tax and ammunition for those who wanted to blow things up. There’s a bet on internal development here, and the Raptors will need a hot start to shift their odds much once the season starts.